ny747pilot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't know...the vertical velocities are still pretty impressive. We'll see.Earthlight, due to the fast mid level flow being so progressive and forcing the precipitation field to be more consolidated, couldn't this be what's helping to keep the vertical velocities on the high end and this is what the NAM is picking up on, especially being a mesoscale model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Thats 10 in Colts Neck , The Euro get me a snow shower . This may be one of the NAM s overhyped 24 hr out runs . but if .50 falls in CNJ I think thats close enough to the SREF . Anyone have the RGEM ? It's the 4km nam were talking about. Cut the precip totals in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi res nam is finally enthused. Very wet. Ill have final numbers in a sec Yea, wow I think its picking up how well the storm looks on radars, as well as all the meso activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 good lord-the weenie IMBY posts are annoying I agree plus they are not taking into account that a good portion of this precip is going to be liquid first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's the 4km nam were talking about. Cut the precip totals in half Its reflected in the .50 expected there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yea, wow I think its picking up how well the storm looks on radars, ad well as all the meso activity. In all fairness to the 4km nam it nailed nemo about 12-18 hours out, albeit it was a bit too wet, but that should be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I agree plus they are not taking into account that a good protion of this precip is going to be liquid first Not true at all from C NJ and north. Especially considering this precipitation is going to fall after 5 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not true at all from C NJ and north. Especially considering this precipitation is going to fall after 5 p.m. oh ok I will believe you since you are a MET - all frozen then - so if those amounts are correct on the NAM - any guesses on accumulations ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yea, wow I think its picking up how well the storm looks on radars, ad well as all the meso activity. The radar presentation down south can be quite deceiving. I very clearly remember how great the radar looked on 2/6/10 even into PA just for most of us to see flurries. If the pattern up here doesn't support a snow event, we won't get one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not true at all from C NJ and north. Especially considering this precipitation is going to fall after 5 p.m. Upton currently has RASN in their JFK TAF from 23Z onward, pretty surprising to me, cannot see the BL being warm enough for any RA, especially with dewpoints in the 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 oh ok I will believe you since you are a MET - all frozen then - so if those amounts are correct on the NAM - any guesses on accumulations ? There might be a brief period of rain to start, but the upper level temperatures are quite chilly so we'll wet bulb very quickly. I'm still leaning towards all snow. And if the NAM were to be right, it's probably 4-7", with maybe a local weenie area of 8" from C NJ through NYC and LI. I don't think ratios will be great, but once we get into the banding, there should be plenty of lift in the snow growth region, which should bump up our ratios during the peak of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The radar presentation down south can be quite deceiving. I very clearly remember how great the radar looked on 2/6/10 even into PA just for most of us to see flurries. If the pattern up here doesn't support a snow event, we won't get one. lol Don't remind me of that storm. I'm looking at totals as well, and some place are close to 1.5" of rain, most of the models even this morning didn't have such amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Upton currently has RASN in their JFK TAF from 23Z onward, pretty surprising to me, cannot see the BL being warm enough for any RA, especially with dewpoints in the 20s Yeah, nothing supports rain, really, except perhaps at the very immediate onset. Mid and upper level temperatures are certainly chilly enough as well for a snowflake to survive to the ground even when initially above freezing at the surface. Our wet bulb temperatures will be quite low as you alluded to with the low dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Upton currently has RASN in their JFK TAF from 23Z onward, pretty surprising to me, cannot see the BL being warm enough for any RA, especially with dewpoints in the 20s Upton currently has RASN in their JFK TAF from 23Z onward, pretty surprising to me, cannot see the BL being warm enough for any RA, especially with dewpoints in the 20s Its amazing they hung onto rain Fri longer than anyone there were 10 -12 s were reported to there east west , south east and north , yet they came in at 6 . The banding went thru there like everyone else . 850s are fine throughout the area and lapse rates will cool the column " if the NAM is right " . Without heavier precip BL is an issue , but the dewpoints are low and you have to imagine that gets to the surface kind of quick . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RGEM still appears SE of NAM, same idea sharp ass gradient from NYC on SE'ward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Based off the 12z guidance I'm sure Created: 02/12/13 3:19 PM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ik I read it wrong lol. Btw where is 287? https://maps.google.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Based off the 12z guidance I'm sure Created: 02/12/13 3:19 PM EST MT. Holly's new map is even less generous now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RGEM still appears SE of NAM, same idea sharp ass gradient from NYC on SE'ward. Could you post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 MT. Holly's new map is even less generous now. Can you post it? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Based off the 12z guidance I'm sure Created: 02/12/13 3:19 PM EST Oh those greedy Upton people, IMBY'er weenies, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can you post it? Rossi http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/Day2Snow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can you post it? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The RGEM is much better inside 24 hours, but of course I still would have liked to have seen it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 People are acting shocked by the NWS snowfall graphics. Why? One run of the NAM (which has been overamped, too far west, and too wet recently 24 hrs prior to precip events) is meaningless. SREF's are rather unimpressive for 4+ in. amounts. People have to stop cherry picking models. This is not a buffet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/Day2Snow.png Tht is going to be to low!! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 People are acting shocked by the NWS snowfall graphics. Why? One run of the NAM (which has been overamped, too far west, and too wet recently 24 hrs prior to precip events) is meaningless. SREF's are rather unimpressive for 4+ in. amounts. People have to stop cherry picking models. This is not a buffet. I agree to an extent , I hate to see the NAM crush everyone for 5 straight days only to spit out an 1 inch of liquid 24 hrs out and ruin there whole forecast if .25 falls . But UPTON and MT HOLLY going against NCEPs 4 inch probabilities . The only thing is that maybe NCEP takes those percentages down . i just see a little disconnect there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't understand one thing that you wrote. I agree to an extent , I hate to see the NAM crush everyone for 5 straight days only to spit out an 1 inch of liquid 24 hrs out and ruin there whole forecast if .25 falls . But UPTON and MT HOLLY going against NCEPs 4 inch probabilities . The only thing is that maybe NCEP takes those percentages down . i just see a little disconnect there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18z GFS find a weakness in that confluence up north and looks decently amped. Precip on our doorstep at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mt Holly 1-2 in their latest disco...with some rain issues for some in Jersey and also some of this snow will fall but trouble sticking to roads and those to the north cold enough less qpf. Also the GFS ends this 6z time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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