earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Either the Euro is wrong or the GFS and Nam are wrong. Please tell me more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Please tell me more A nice 40 mile shift to the north with the SREF. I'm obviously very wary given what the Euro shows, but this event isn't "over" yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Please tell me more DT has 1-3 inches for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I like the look of the radar. There isn't a huge squall line in the Gulf, so this definitely won't gain the latitude of Nemo, but there is some Gulf convection. Any latent heat release to pump up the heights out ahead helps. My one somewhat desperately optimistic theory is that with the last event, the convection in the Gulf was more synoptic scale, as it was a squall line, which is why the Euro handled it much better than the NAM. However, the convection in the Gulf is a much smaller scale this time, perhaps favoring the NAM and SREF mesoscale guidance. Other than that, I really can't think of anything other than to just wait for more model runs to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 DT has 1-3 inches for our area. That is only his first call. There is still his second call, next to last call, last call, and final call to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 at h21 looks flatter on the NAM, thought that at 12Z but wound up being wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 DT has 1-3 inches for our area. Who's this Dee Tee character? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 at h21 looks flatter on the NAM, thought that at 12Z but wound up being wrong... This time it's pretty obvious. It's flatter with the shortwave and the heights out ahead of it. Every once and a while the NAM has an over amped run within 24-36 hours...I'm inclined to believe the 12z run was just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't know...the vertical velocities are still pretty impressive. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't see why the 18z nam would not give us 2-4 on this run. Looks pretty good to me at hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just glancing at the NAM through 24 I think it will be a decent hit up to around Trenton with a pretty sharp cutoff to the north near Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 33 has mod snow up to earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 30 is actually a really nice hit on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 33 mod snow into the area vv's look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is one of those events were many other things besides the strength and amplitude of the vort and shortwave itself will greatly impact the precipitation shield. It's not so simple as slightly flatter --> less precip in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nam still has moderate snow over the area http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_033_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 33, moderate snow as far north as I-80, maybe even a little further north. Actually looks very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You know, for several runs in a row, it seemed as if the precipitation field was not necessarily matching the omega (vertical velocity) fields. Perhaps now they are trying to match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm so conflicted, the weenie in me wants to believe the NAM, but the logical part of me wants to believe the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You know, for several runs in a row, it seemed as if the precipitation field was not necessarily matching the omega (vertical velocity) fields. Perhaps now they are trying to match up. Been saying this for a couple of days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 36 it's getting out of here, but it's still snowing from the City eastward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At 36 looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run is just a hair wetter. Nice advisory level snow if taken verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 36 paste job. This looks to be the best nam run yet. Coastal nj and Long Island get .5 in a 3 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 0.50" from Trenton to Sandy Hook as suspected...0.25" from Warren Co NJ to Bridgeport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 can anyone zoom into NYC total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You know, for several runs in a row, it seemed as if the precipitation field was not necessarily matching the omega (vertical velocity) fields. Perhaps now they are trying to match up. I've always thought that the precip was being shunted out a little too far south given little confluence over us. I know the flow is crushing it to an extent but the models might be overdoing it slightly. A low in the position that models are mostly putting it in would normally mean a good amount of snow pretty far north. Look how far north a SW flow at 500mb exists-you would think more penetration by the snow shield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 can anyone zoom into NYC total QPF? .25+ for NYC. The line is just to your north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 can anyone zoom into NYC total QPF?Yes...close 0.35-0.4 for knyc (extrapolated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Around .40 for NYC on this run and .50 for the south shores of the area. Good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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