SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Both the ggem and ukie skim our area. Darn, not as good as the GFS I assume? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is from overnight, the latest trend on the GFS might make them a bit more confident. Is the GGEM out yet or the UKIE out yet? -skisheep Dont expect more than this .. Its not modeled2- 4 and 3- 5 is a good forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dont expect more than this .. Its not modeled Not expecting more than 2-4." Hoping for more, but not expecting it. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not expecting more than 2-4." Hoping for more, but not expecting it. -skisheep, esp id go the low end on that especially at your location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Probability of 4 inches notice "forecaster: kocin" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not expecting more than 2-4." Hoping for more, but not expecting it. -skisheep You might get the short end of the stick. Hopefully some of the better activity makes it up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How would the screwzone of Southern nass cnty fare with tomorrow's event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro looks slightly more amplified so far, nothing earth shattering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 How would the screwzone of Southern nass cnty fare with tomorrow's event? Cautiously hopeful-the NAM and GFS both get us pretty good and mixing seems very limited. Maybe 4-6" if we luck out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Cautiously hopeful-the NAM and GFS both get us pretty good and mixing seems very limited. Maybe 4-6" if we luck out. Will this be a north shore / south shore deal too? South 2-3 north 4-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro is still a disorganized mess...I think we're seeing another situation where the NAM is too amped up in the 24-36 hour range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Will this be a north shore / south shore deal too? South 2-3 north 4-6? Too early to say for sure-hopefully models inch north a little tonight and tomorrow and we should be good. Seems though like we're in an OK position for at least a light-mod event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro dry hmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Doctor No in all it's glory on this EURO run, looks even south a bit from 0z. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 never a good sign when the euro's not on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Per Tombo, Euro is basically a non event, and almost a non event even for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro`s alone . RGEM NAM GFS SREF , all bring .25 into the area . I cant side with the Euro ( as much as i would lov too ) , it doesnt have any support . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Doctor No in all it's glory on this EURO run, looks even south a bit from 0z. -skisheep Not what I wanted to hear. Hopefully tonight we see a last minute shift north, other than that starting to look like a miss. Fast/progressive sheared out pattern FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not sure if I want to toss it entirley, but I think it has to be discounted to some extent, every other model is 2-4" here, and the EURO is nothing. It did do well with the clippers when everything else was spitting out too much QPF, but I think this might be a different sort of system, although correct me if i'm wrong? Not tossing the run, but not embracing it either. Think a GFS/GGEM/UKIE combo seems reasonable, toss the NAM which is the northern outlier, and the EURO the southern outlier. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 SPC WRF at the end of its 36 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Precip looks more North and Robust compared to how the Euro initialized ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Myabe I'm mistaken but at this range I believe the nam and gfs are better, especially in recent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Myabe I'm mistaken but at this range I believe the nam and gfs are better, especially in recent storms. you are mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Either the Euro is wrong or the GFS and Nam are wrong. Euro doesn't even have anything for our area. I think it's going to be wrong if the Nam and GFS stay put. Radar looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 never a good sign when the euro's not on board It hasn't been stellar this year. It has been up and down. Still waiting for my .25 QPF from a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 you are mistaken. I don't like using the Euro this close in if its basically out on its own, I cannot recall it ever scoring a hit showing a virtual miss inside 36 hours and ultimately ending up being correct. I think its having issues with convection down in the south for one reason or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 SPC WRF at the end of its 36 hours.... This doesn't look good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 15z SREFs are wetter than 09z...0.25 line gets about 25-50 miles NW of where it was for 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 15z SREFs are wetter than 09z...0.25 line gets about 25-50 miles NW of where it was for 09z Nice bump to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice tick on the SREF's, puts them solidly in line with the 2-4" camp for MBY. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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