PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 36 hr slp slightly further north , western side of precip better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gfs further north. .25+ for city and .50+ central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z NAM Bufkit has up to -25 VV in the snow growth zone over LGA and ISP. Tells me there would be a very nice band likely stretching across NYC and Long Island for a few hours and we would rack up totals quickly. The low should enhance as it hits the Atlantic, and for people who stay all snow there could be over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 good hit for southern areas of nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not with a 996 low bombing out over the Delmarva. Everything about that rgem run is off. Low placement and strength should indicate much better precip shield and more snow on the nw side. Toss it. Wrong, and it's not smart to make assumptions like this. The mid level flow is pressing down on the storm from the northwest, over Southesst Canada. The fast flow there is pushing the best forcing for precipitation to the southeast of where it usually would be. It makes plenty of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GFS soooo much better aloft this run and it seems to have it's nw precip bias in full effect. based on the 700mb map, precip should expand well nw into the lower hudson valley this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Close to .5 most of Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 hr 42 slp down to 996 on 12z - was 1000 at 6z - precip further north . looks like .25 gets thru city to south shore LI -at 6z it was thru CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Advisory event for all on the GFS, MBY is the northern edge of the .25" 2-4" lollies to 5" IMBY, 3-5" lollies to 6" for the city and LI. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 what about precip issues with mixing with rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z NAM Bufkit has up to -25 VV in the snow growth zone over LGA and ISP.Would lead to a good thump if it were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wrong, and it's not smart to make assumptions like this. The mid level flow is pressing down on the storm from the northwest, over Southesst Canada. The fast flow there is pushing the best forcing for precipitation to the southeast of where it usually would be. It makes plenty of sense. GFS is showing something similar, John, but the best forcing and VVs are well nw of the low. I don't agree that the northern stream confluence is strong enough to be blowing out the best precip this far SE and I see it continuing to correct in future runs. I'm sure you would also agree that the rgem was way too warm and it's an extreme outlier in that regard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Precip wise it's a hair dryer than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like an area wide 2 - 3 , maybe to 4 in Monmouth county with a few 5`s showing up in SEPA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Could be borderline warning level for parts of central and south central nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mt Holly is a general 2-4 inches throughout the entire state of NJ on their predicted snowfall maps. Looks appropriate based on the models right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like an area wide 2 - 3 , maybe to 4 in Monmouth county with a few 5`s showing up in SEPA . SEPA will have rain issues, its going to be in the mid 40s there tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What sort of ratios would we see with this? probably not much above the standard 10-1, correct? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS is showing something similar, John, but the best forcing and VVs are well nw of the low. I don't agree that the northern stream confluence is strong enough to be blowing out the best precip this far SE and I see it continuing to correct in future runs. I'm sure you would also agree that the rgem was way too warm and it's an extreme outlier in that regard right now. If this comes in entirely at night, precip shouldn't have a problem all being snow. Southern NJ may have more of an issue but heavy rates should work in their favor. Overall positive trends thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Mt Holly is a general 2-4 inches throughout the entire state of NJ on their predicted snowfall maps. Looks appropriate based on the models right now Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 SEPA will have rain issues, its going to be in the mid 40s there tomorrow Wrong forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 SEPA will have rain issues, its going to be in the mid 40s there tomorrow Places like York , Harrisburg and Landcaster start around 40 and with those rates .50 - .75 . they get to 32 fast and u will see the 4- 5 in that area , more so than up here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Upton's map from 10am this morning has 3" up to Putnam Co NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Places like York , Harrisburg and Landcaster start around 40 and with those rates .50 - .75 . they get to 32 fast and u will see the 4- 5 in that area , more so than up here . Outside of philly, especially to the western burbs temps will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Upton's map from 10am this morning has 3" up to Putnam Co NY Wednesday NightSnow likely, mainly between 10pm and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Light east wind becoming north 8 to 13 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=242&y=171&site=okx&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=242&map_y=171 Upton for Pine Valley, NY (Eastern Suffolk). Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Upton's map from 10am this morning has 3" up to Putnam Co NY That means NYC and the surrounding areas should have 4-6" of Snow, if the Omega Snow Growth is successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TAKE THE LOW EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS WELL AS 8 OF THE 12 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TREND IS TO TAKE THE STORM A BIT FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ON AVERAGE...TOOK ABOUT 1-2 TENTHS OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF...TRANSLATING TO ABOUT 1-2 INCHES LESS IN SNOWFALL FOR THE EVENT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST NJ AND MUCH OF NEW YORK CITY...AND 3-5 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT. THIS FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGE QPF AND SNOWFALL...AS WELL AS THE NCEP SREF MEANS. THUS...THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL STORM RATHER THAN WARNING LEVEL CRITERIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I think we're in the high end of a 2-4 instead of low end 4-8....same thing in the end maybe an inch or two short of earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF STATES TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL HEAD NORTHEAST AND PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW TRACKING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TAKE THE LOW EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...AS WELL AS 8 OF THE 12 GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. TREND IS TO TAKE THE STORM A BIT FARTHER OUT TO SEA. ON AVERAGE...TOOK ABOUT 1-2 TENTHS OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST QPF...TRANSLATING TO ABOUT 1-2 INCHES LESS IN SNOWFALL FOR THE EVENT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...2-4 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST NJ AND MUCH OF NEW YORK CITY...AND 3-5 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT. THIS FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGE QPF AND SNOWFALL...AS WELL AS THE NCEP SREF MEANS. THUS...THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE AN ADVISORY LEVEL STORM RATHER THAN WARNING LEVEL CRITERIA. This is from overnight, the latest trend on the GFS might make them a bit more confident. Is the GGEM out yet or the UKIE out yet? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This is from overnight, the latest trend on the GFS might make them a bit more confident. Is the GGEM out yet or the UKIE out yet? -skisheep Both the ggem and ukie skim our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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