Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Will be interesting to see what the GFS does at 12z-hopefully it follows suit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The RGEM at 0z wasn't that far off from this solution. The euro is an outlier being so dry and south. The SREF's are very dry and so is the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Will be interesting to see what the GFS does at 12z-hopefully it follows suit... Yup, right now NAM is a solid advisory event for here, but want something else to back it up. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The SREF's are very dry and so is the GFS. SREF's weren't so dry on the 9z, got .25 into NYC and almost to me. Not like the NAM wet, but not as bad as the GFS. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The SREF's are very dry and so is the GFS.Srefs run off NAM data I believe, I believe its the NAM ensembles, it would stand to reason that they're dry given the 00z NAM. However, one model run of one model must be taken for what it is: one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 500mb reflection was better this run, not necessarily a trend, but if it is a trend we may see the surface features catch up eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi-Res NAM Sim at HR 39: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice hit at hour 39...some pretty poor analysis in this thread..just let the run play out instead of saying its definitely coming south at 9 hours. Yes it's pretty terrible to read with all of the conflicting analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi-Res Nam at 42 hours. LI FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's not fair to say the NAM is an outlier when it's the first model to run in a given model cycle. Lets see what the rest of the 12z data shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 having two blizzards or major snowstorms in the same season is very rare...it's hard enough to get one...many of these winters had mucho events that grazed the area or wasn't a big storm...The winters with two major storms near 10" or more... 1895-96...both came in March... 1898-99...November and February... 1913-14...February and March... 1925-26...both came in February... 1933-34...December and February... 1959-60...December and March... 1960-61...December, January and February... 1966-67...February and March... 1977-78...January and February... 1995-96...January and February... 2003-04...December and January... 2009-10...December and two in February... 2010-11...December and January... the winters with a foot or more is even less... 1959-60...the December 59 storm had a small area of a foot or more...March was wide spread... 1960-61...December and February... 1977-78...January and February... 2010-11...December and January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This isn't going to be a storm that slows down unfortunately. It would likely consolidate somewhat near us and intensify the snow, but this run looks to nail us for a few hours or so. It's still a fast flow that will try to crush it somewhat-in 95% of circumstances a low in that position would mean heavy precip here. To those dismissing the run before seeing the output... This isn't going to be a storm that slows down unfortunately. It would likely consolidate somewhat near us and intensify the snow, but this run looks to nail us for a few hours or so. It's still a fast flow that will try to crush it somewhat-in 95% of circumstances a low in that position would mean heavy precip here. To those dismissing the run before seeing the output... guilty as charged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 having two blizzards or major snowstorms in the same season is very rare...it's hard enough to get one...many of these winters had mucho events that grazed the area or wasn't a big storm...The winters with two major storms near 10" or more... 1895-96...both came in March... 1898-99...November and February... 1913-14...February and March... 1925-26...both came in February... 1933-34...December and February... 1959-60...December and March... 1960-61...December, January and February... 1966-67...February and March... 1977-78...January and February... 1995-96...January and February... 2003-04...December and January... 2009-10...December and two in February... 2010-11...December and January... the winters with a foot or more is even less... 1959-60...the December 59 storm had a small area of a foot or more...March was wide spread... 1960-61...December and February... 1977-78...January and February... 2010-11...December and January... While they weren't widespread events Feb 94 had two events less than 3 days apart. Around 10" fell on the 8th and then over a foot on the 11th, with some snow/ice in between, but amounts varied greatly ( I think EWR had about 30" for the week while Philly had like 4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Snowmap has 6 + for central Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 While they weren't widespread events Feb 94 had two events less than 3 days apart. Around 10" fell on the 8th and then over a foot on the 11th, with some snow/ice in between, but amounts varied greatly ( I think EWR had about 30" for the week while Philly had like 4) i was thinking about doing a list with 9" or more which would have that year in it...Where I lived we got less than 10" both times...To much mixing in the southern part of Brooklyn as shown on my video...The list expands greatly if you use 8" or more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi-Res Nam at 42 hours. LI FTW? I say we tell Suffolk County that's going to happen no matter what so maybe I'll actually get my street plowed sometime this week. ( of course I wouldn't mind this coming to fruition ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hi-Res Nam at 42 hours. LI FTW? What a cutoff as this gets its act together. Not sure sure I buy it with a lack of confluence or dry air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Steve D more or less going with the same forecast DT is, 3-6 near Philly but only going T-2 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I have seen these things always trend N and W last minute so I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again. (Inevitable NW trend) It wouldn't take too much of a shift to give us more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RGEM similar, tight tight gradient NYC to C-NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RGEM similar, tight tight gradient NYC to C-NJ I wouldn't call it similar...it's not nearly as enthused as the NAM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013021212/I_nw_r1_EST_2013021212_041.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I wouldn't call it similar...it's not nearly as enthused as the NAM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013021212/I_nw_r1_EST_2013021212_041.png That looks nice for central nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The low is in a good spot on the RGEM but nothing to show for it. Really weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The low is in a good spot on the RGEM but nothing to show for it. Really weird. Its also got a crap ton of mixing for even NYC/LI for awhile and especially NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Its also got a crap ton of mixing for even NYC/LI for awhile and especially NJ makes sense, it's a marginal airmass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 makes sense, it's a marginal airmass... Not with a 996 low bombing out over the Delmarva. Everything about that rgem run is off. Low placement and strength should indicate much better precip shield and more snow on the nw side. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RGEM similar, tight tight gradient NYC to C-NJ I wouldn't call it similar...it's not nearly as enthused as the NAM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2013021212/I_nw_r1_EST_2013021212_041.png What does the next frame show ? Looks like its about to unleash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 12z NAM Bufkit has up to -25 VV in the snow growth zone over LGA and ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Heights are slightly higher along the coast at hour 30 than they were at hour 42 with the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 hr 30 gfs - precip a little further north slp similar spot than 36 hr 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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