IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At hr 36 the surface low is sitting in the exact same position as it was at hr 42 on the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At hr 36 the center is slightly more north at the mouth of Delaware bay than the 6z 42 , the western side continues to be stronger than the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 look at the mid-levels...everything is more elongated...that would escape east before going north. (at least thru 33hr) All you need to do is look at 500mb. The energy is stronger when compared to 6z. You can not argue that. It doesn't matter anway, we're spltting hairs at this point. It's actually an outlier at this point. 6z hr 39 vs hr 33 at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ^The energy is stronger, but the 500mb heights ahead of it a tick less than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 36 moderate snow for most of the area. Snow on the doorstep for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ^The energy is stronger, but the 500mb heights ahead of it a tick less than 6z The trough itself isn't as sharp. If we had gotten the sharper trough then we might have actually gotten significant improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run came slightly more north. Nice hit at hour 39 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Rough analysis here guys. We all have access to the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I actually think this run WILL be a bit better for the area..It's a bit further north, no denying it..but quite honestly thee mechanics of this storm are more important than what the models are spitting out each run. It is being forced to the south and we will have a very sharp cutoff. No real way I don't think that precip spreads past NYC, and barely to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nice hit at hour 39...some pretty poor analysis in this thread..just let the run play out instead of saying its definitely coming south at 9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run is actually going to end up wetter, hr 42 moderate snow for everyone, light snow NW of 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 42 is nice too. Looks like a solid Central/South Jerz hit. Wiggle this thing 25-50 miles N or S and the results can be markedly different, hence HPC's map this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 look at the mid-levels...everything is more elongated...that would escape east before going north. (at least thru 33hr) EDIT- thru 36, i will go out on a limb and say the .10 line barely gets to S LI look at the mid-levels...everything is more elongated...that would escape east before going north. (at least thru 33hr) EDIT- thru 36, i will go out on a limb and say the .10 line barely gets to S LI MUCH better than I thought it would be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 hr 42 better precip shield than its 6z 48 hr -- 996 low , same spot east of AC , thats a very good look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 very nice run, south/southwestern regions of our area are going to be favored in this storm imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run is actually going to end up wetter, hr 42 moderate snow for everyone, light snow NW of 287 This run is actually going to end up wetter, hr 42 moderate snow for everyone, light snow NW of 287 WOW - that looks great, if the h7 low would close off, it would be even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It shows again that mod-heavy band of snow from S NJ all the way to SE MA. Probably a solid 3-6"er for those areas and even 3 maybe 4 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Upton still has decent snows for the area... So I am definitly not throwing in the towel. I think this is a 2-4 freshen up the snow-pack type storm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'll take it! hardest thing equation for a model to solve is precip - 996 east of AC was hard to believe that was gona only yield .10s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Location is not all that different and I wonder if the CF issues that SnowGoose mentioned might be at play (although I think he called it 'Convective Screw', which gave me a morning chuckle..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GREAT omega at 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'd trust the NAM sim radar at this point.....we mock it but it actually picks up banding trends, though not exactly where it will set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 WOW - that looks great, if the h7 low would close off, it would be even better This isn't going to be a storm that slows down unfortunately. It would likely consolidate somewhat near us and intensify the snow, but this run looks to nail us for a few hours or so. It's still a fast flow that will try to crush it somewhat-in 95% of circumstances a low in that position would mean heavy precip here. To those dismissing the run before seeing the output... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 MUCH better than I thought it would be... SMH. IT WAS CLEAR FROM HOUR 30 that this was coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GREAT omega at 700mb. Yes, definately some banding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow it's actually a 6-10" snow maker for SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's currently the wettest model and an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's currently the wettest model and an outlier The RGEM at 0z wasn't that far off from this solution. The euro is an outlier being so dry and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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