MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Probability of 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Probability of 4 inches i am honestly shocked at how high those probabilities are over the area. gives jm in long beach at least a 70% shot! good luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Snow amount forecast amounts similar to this are dangerous 36 hours out IMO http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8011&topicid=20046&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 eesh, not a great turn on the models overnight. even worse for the second storm - which is looking like a non-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 eesh, not a great turn on the models overnight. even worse for the second storm - which is looking like a non-event Weekend event is still alive. It wouldn't take much for the storm to come closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 i am honestly shocked at how high those probabilities are over the area. gives jm in long beach at least a 70% shot! good luck to you. There could be a significant difference with this over a small area-given the trend to really tighten the QPFas it approaches us-which almost seems off to me given that there's no dry, cold flow coming down. Makes me wonder if the precip is being constricted a little too much. Ah well, hopefully something nice happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 No big changes on the NAM through hr 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 2-4"? The GFS is flurries here, the EURO is close to nothing(correct if im wrong), and everyone's saying toss the NAM. -skisheep You can't forecast based just off of models. With a vigorous shortwave and limited blocking, there's more room for the storm to trend north than south. Even the 6z GFS, which was a 1-2" event for southern areas and almost nothing further north, had that "look" of a coastal that could get a lot closer to the coast in future runs. I think you're going to see slightly stronger height rises and thus a more amplified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There could be a significant difference with this over a small area-given the trend to really tighten the QPFas it approaches us-which almost seems off to me given that there's no dry, cold flow coming down. Makes me wonder if the precip is being constricted a little too much. Ah well, hopefully something nice happens. No, the solutions that had a stronger more amplified system brough it closer to the coast up here and really got almost a mini CCB going up this way. Now the models have been trending weaker and overall less amplified and it's leading to an overall weaker less organized storm. The low track is not bad. We just have a lack of organized precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 33 pages for 1-2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 No big changes on the NAM through hr 18 That's not really true. The southern vort is stronger and more NE than 6z and the heights are higher along the EC because confluence is a bit weaker. These could prove to be important changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run of the NAM is going to be even further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That's not really true. The southern vort is stronger and more NE than 6z and the heights are higher along the EC because confluence is a bit weaker. These could prove to be important changes. I compared hr 18 at 12z to hour 24 at 6z and found no real differences, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run of the NAM is going to be even further south It's further north at hour 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At hr 24 the SW is just a tad furher east into NE Arkansas and the trough has more of a positive tilt when compared to hr 30 at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 still too close to throw in the towel on this one, a lot can still change in 48 hours and we only need a slight change in the amplification of the s/w to give us 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's further north at hour 24. We shall see what the final result is. I think it's just quicker and further east this run as compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's further north at hour 24.\12z 24 hr - vs 6z 30 hr isnt more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 the majority of the sref members keep the .1" line south of the area. the mean is north because of a few amped up members that are clearly going to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 27, weak surface low over eastern TN but it's actually stronger than it was at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z 30 looks a little better on the western side than the 6z 36 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 should be a better run, more spacing between the kicker out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This run of the NAM is going to be even further south That's not really true. The southern vort is stronger and more NE than 6z and the heights are higher along the EC because confluence is a bit weaker. These could prove to be important changes. LOL...get it together guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hr 33, organized precip up to about KTTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This NAM out 30hr looks more amplified than 0z. But not quite as much 6z. Same out to 33hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The wave is definitely a bit stronger this run when compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its definitely further south than 6Z... well this was a waste of time. Hopefully, the weekend storm comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Precip gradient really tightens up but it could be a bit more of a solid run for S NJ and up to PHL or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The wave is definitely a bit stronger this run when compared to 6z. The wave is definitely a bit stronger this run when compared to 6z. look at the mid-levels...everything is more elongated...that would escape east before going north. (at least thru 33hr) EDIT- thru 36, i will go out on a limb and say the .10 line barely gets to S LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sim radar at hr 36 when compared with hr 42 is further north and a more solid area. However, it does have a very sharp cutoff at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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