Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ya looks like the sref pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The thing that has me a bit concerned...0z NAM runs have been more aggressive lately....I wonder if the NAM is overdoing the northern extent of precip. This MAY be a PHL/S NJ snow event and drop flurries or an inch in NYC metro. SREF's seemed to put the bulls eye over S Middlesex County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good hit its razor thin for being nada...20-30 miles further south and we get nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Kinda funny to see the NAM and GFS switch positions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its razor thin for being nada...20-30 miles further south and we get nada Do you really think we get nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Flurries here on the NAM, while the GFS has warning snow. Actually inclined to not toss the NAM, it brought us to this point, now will it take us away? If GFS trends south that will not be good... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The thing that has me a bit concerned...0z NAM runs have been more aggressive lately....I wonder if the NAM is overdoing the northern extent of precip. This MAY be a PHL/S NJ snow event and drop flurries or an inch in NYC metro. SREF's seemed to put the bulls eye over S Middlesex County.[/quote Actually middlesex and Monmouth look like 4 to 6 Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The thing that has me a bit concerned...0z NAM runs have been more aggressive lately....I wonder if the NAM is overdoing the northern extent of precip. This MAY be a PHL/S NJ snow event and drop flurries or an inch in NYC metro. SREF's seemed to put the bulls eye over S Middlesex County. Either way the NAM depicts a very quick hitter. In and out in less than 6 hours. Hopefully the GFS doesn't trend this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Flurries here on the NAM, while the GFS has warning snow. Actually inclined to not toss the NAM, it brought us to this point, now will it take us away? If GFS trends south that will not be good... -skisheep . Nam getting into its good range which tells me its a sign of bad to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS has been the most consistent with this, not the NAM. If the GFS trends, storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This looks like one of those central DE jackpot storms...Nothing major, I'm more keen in watching the end of weekend storm. What some of the GFS members do with that is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well I mean, this does happen....a few days ago, it was much too far south, then it started coming north with borderline temps, maybe almost too far north....then it's leveling off now and models coming to their solution....looks like it favors PHL south more than us....of I had to make a call it'd actually be for a bit more than it shows here....3-4" snow for NYC, 4-6" PHL and highest amounts around 8" somewhere probably in S NJ or Delaware. The weekend storm looks like it has much more potential to be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 . Nam getting into its good range which tells me its a sign of bad to come This never a good time on the nam! Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its razor thin for being nada...20-30 miles further south and we get nada Actually for us north of I-80 it's basically right around 0.10". I wonder if we're better off passing up on this one for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 . Nam getting into its good range which tells me its a sign of bad to come Agreed, it could be just the NAM though so who knows. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The NAM is not in its range yet. Looks like a moderate hit, anyway. Whoever is mentioning sun angle for a storm on February 14th has got to be kidding themselves. It's not late March here, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Do you really think we get nothing? anything is possible....i definitely think this isnt an ideal setup and the fact that the euro never jumped when the NAM/GFS said this high, lends credence to this being a minor-to nothing event...just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS has been the most consistent with this, not the NAM. If the GFS trends, storm cancel. Really? NAM has been locked into this since beyond it's run(extrapolating past 84), and has consistently been a hit until now. GFS seems to have been bouncing around, sometimes has it, sometimes dosen't, has gotten more into it today but the NAM has been consistent, and loosing it gets me very worried. The GFS will be the question here, if it holds the NAM is being the NAM, if it trends to the NAM, then congrats philly. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 We are talking about northern middlesex county which was 8-10 respectively. Se middlesex county and your area was in the relative dry area. Those counties you posted are on the western side of the state. Union in nj which is above northern middlesex ended up with 10-12Just across the river here on staten island I measured 11 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS has been the most consistent with this, not the NAM. If the GFS trends, storm cancel. huh? the NAM has had this storm every run since it came into its range and it was clearly shown via extrapolation prior to its range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Really? NAM has been locked into this since beyond it's run(extrapolating past 84), and has consistently been a hit until now. GFS seems to have been bouncing around, sometimes has it, sometimes dosen't, has gotten more into it today but the NAM has been consistent, and loosing it gets me very worried. The GFS will be the question here, if it holds the NAM is being the NAM, if it trends to the NAM, then congrats philly. -skisheep NAM had a rain event for us at first. Trended south. It's been trending south ever since then. Now that it's not showing what people like, they begin crying. The GFS has been a little more consistent, yes it had some 18z runs where it's south and east, but for the most part, the GFS had this 150hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Really? NAM has been locked into this since beyond it's run(extrapolating past 84), and has consistently been a hit until now. GFS seems to have been bouncing around, sometimes has it, sometimes dosen't, has gotten more into it today but the NAM has been consistent, and loosing it gets me very worried. The GFS will be the question here, if it holds the NAM is being the NAM, if it trends to the NAM, then congrats philly. -skisheep yes, exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Let's take a look at the other models before jumping off the bridge over a NAM run... And besides, from NYC south/east it's still a 3-6" event on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 and we all have just dismissed what the euro shows or will show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Holy ****. We still get accumulating snow. Calm down guys lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 look on the list...I think there were two locations one was Monroe and I forget the other one. Both of the locations that reported 6'' (Kingston and Monroe) are in southern Middlesex county where the changeover took longer. All locations in northern MIddlesex county reported 8-10'', thus the 6'' claim is an outlier and likely inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 and we all have just dismissed what the euro shows or will show? Eh.. NAM still better looking than the Euro. I just find it shocking that some would take the NAM over the global consensus even at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 4km nam shows 0 precip over our area, north of central jersey. kinda weird how divergent its been from the 12km the past 2 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The NAM at 84 hrs looks very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 4km nam shows 0 precip over our area, north of central jersey. kinda weird how divergent its been from the 12km the past 2 runs Reflectivity maps say otherwise. But I agree, looks a bit dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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