Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dt going 3+ for NYC. 3-6 for Phl and the area that got shafted last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dt going 3+ for NYC. 3-6 for Phl and the area that got shafted last stormNot a bad forecast honestly ATM. I'd say 4+ but if I were to exclusively hug the euro even when it's wrong I'd probably say 3+ too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It seems like DT likes the idea of a weaker storm with not such heavy precip. Possible for sure.'the guidance suggests otherwise I think right now but there's still room for trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yep. I got 10.5" in Metuchen, in the heart of northern Middlesex, and I suspect that the 8.9" report from Metuchen might be lower than it should be for two reasons: first, I'm not sure the person included the 0.5" we got in the morning, which melted with the rainfall after that, and second, if they truly measured at 9:15 am, they likely would have seen 0.5-0.75" of compaction relative to my 7:00 am measurement, which was taken before the sun came up and just an hour or so after the last flurries were over - I remeasured at 10 am and my snow depth had compacted by 0.75", so I could easily see a 9:15 am measurement being 0.5" low. I'm also kind of a nut when I measure - I generally average out several measurements and I always take at least 10 measurements with my final measurement (possibly not needed for this storm, since drifiting was minimal, but sometimes it's important). Also, if you look at the NWS snowfall map, just about all of Middlesex County is in the 8-12" swath, as were all the reports, so 6" is simply not credible. Lastly, every report from Union County, 7+ miles north of me, was over 10" and same for Staten Island, which is 5+ miles east of me. Hey, no harm in being a snow measuring nut. Much better than people who stay partially inside, reach their one arm out the door, and stick the ruler in the nearest snow mound, while holding a cup of hot chocolate in the other hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I seriously wish you would become a trained spotter, your report would be great for our area. His 6 makes no sense and is just another last minute attempt to poo poo the event. Was at haileys with my gf before going to Knicks game yesterday. She is from metuchen I got 7 IMBY...10 miles from New Brunswick....other areas near me with about 6, some with 7 this was Somerset County, I do not think any reports over 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 21z srefs are out. Kinda meh but I guess not so different from 15z. 0.5 line touches south shore of LI and central jersey. Wide area in the 0.25-0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hey, no harm in being a snow measuring nut. Much better than people who stay partially inside, reach their one arm out the door, and stick the ruler in the nearest snow mound, while holding a cup of hot chocolate in the other hand. When I came home from a party late Friday night, I could've sworn we had 3 feet out there. Must've melted down to 13" or so by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When I came home from a party late Friday night, I could've sworn we had 3 feet out there. Must've melted down to 13" or so by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Srefs look pretty flat at 500 especially as it reaches the coast. Would assume there's several unenthused members in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yep. I got 10.5" in Metuchen, in the heart of northern Middlesex, and I suspect that the 8.9" report from Metuchen might be lower than it should be for two reasons: first, I'm not sure the person included the 0.5" we got in the morning, which melted with the rainfall after that, and second, if they truly measured at 9:15 am, they likely would have seen 0.5-0.75" of compaction relative to my 7:00 am measurement, which was taken before the sun came up and just an hour or so after the last flurries were over - I remeasured at 10 am and my snow depth had compacted by 0.75", so I could easily see a 9:15 am measurement being 0.5" low. I'm also kind of a nut when I measure - I generally average out several measurements and I always take at least 10 measurements with my final measurement (possibly not needed for this storm, since drifiting was minimal, but sometimes it's important). Also, if you look at the NWS snowfall map, just about all of Middlesex County is in the 8-12" swath, as were all the reports, so 6" is simply not credible. Lastly, every report from Union County, 7+ miles north of me, was over 10" and same for Staten Island, which is 5+ miles east of me. Great post. 6'' is definitely too low. It's very easy to undermeasure if you don't measure before the sun comes up and if you don't take into account what melts from rain. 8.2'' was the official measurement in New Brunswick which matches up very well with surrounding areas. And glad to see I'm not the only one who's a nut when it comes to measuring (not that there's anything wrong with that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... CHEESEQUAKE 9.8 245 AM 2/09 PUBLIC METUCHEN 8.9 915 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTH PLAINFIELD 8.8 948 AM 2/09 PUBLIC FORDS 8.5 1209 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER PISCATAWAY 8.5 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW BRUNSWICK 8.2 800 AM 2/09 CO-OP OBSERVER EAST BRUNSWICK 7.4 635 AM 2/09 PUBLIC KINGSTON 6.0 930 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MONROE TWP 6.0 930 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER BASKING RIDGE 8.5 341 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER BOUND BROOK 8.2 810 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER GREENBROOK TWP 8.0 724 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HILLSBOROUGH 7.9 832 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER FRANKLIN TWP 7.5 230 AM 2/09 COCORAHS SOMERVILLE 7.0 545 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ROCKY HILL 6.0 145 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER POTTERSVILLE 5.5 700 AM 2/09 CO-OP OBSERVER BRANCHBURG 4.5 730 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER ...MERCER COUNTY... LAWRENCEVILLE 7.2 933 AM 2/09 PUBLIC 1 ESE MERCERVILLE-HA 7.0 931 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER PRINCETON 7.0 610 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HOPEWELL TWP 6.5 855 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HOPEWELL 6.5 929 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER EWING 6.0 933 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER PENNINGTON 5.8 542 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HAMILTON TWP 5.5 929 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HIGHTSTOWN 5.5 700 AM 2/09 CO-OP OBSERVER EWING TWP 5.0 648 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WHITE HORSE 5. HUNTERDON COUNTY... FLEMINGTON 7.2 915 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER KINGWOOD TWP 7.0 859 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER WERTSVILLE 6.8 730 AM 2/09 CO-OP OBSERVER READINGTON 6.3 518 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER RINGOES 5.9 800 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER HIGH BRIDGE 5.5 509 AM 2/09 PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I got 7 IMBY...10 miles from New Brunswick....other areas near me with about 6, some with 7 this was Somerset County, I do not think any reports over 8 We are talking about northern middlesex county which was 8-10 respectively. Se middlesex county and your area was in the relative dry area. Those counties you posted are on the western side of the state. Union in nj which is above northern middlesex ended up with 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What i take from this is that a poster complaining about the "far" north and west burbs is the same distance, if not further, from manhattan as some of those exurbs. Lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Everything with the northern stream flow (over the Great Lakes and Southeast Canada) is a bit farther south this run on the NAM through 21 hours. Pressing on the flow a little bit more over the East Coast...so we might see another tick southeast at least judging from the early panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Southern stream looks less amped aswell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Everything with the northern stream flow (over the Great Lakes and Southeast Canada) is a bit farther south this run on the NAM through 21 hours. Pressing on the flow a little bit more over the East Coast...so we might see another tick southeast at least judging from the early panels. Ya I noticed that. 18z had some changes too that would lead you to believe the track would be further south yet the eventual track was similar, precip was cut down. I could see a further south track for 00z with similar precip to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When I came home from a party late Friday night, I could've sworn we had 3 feet out there. Must've melted down to 13" or so by morning. Makes sense, Mt. Earthlight has extremely high ratios due to the Mt. Washington like temperatures. Even sober the compaction rates are a sight to behold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks similar to 18z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 EURO FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks similar to 18z so far its surpressed, as compared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I just want to throw this out there so it's on the table. I don't want to be a Debbie Downer, but 21z SREF's show that NYC proper and east may have some mixing issues. There appears to be another warm tongue that we might have to fight. If this thing hits too early...aka before sunset...this could be just one of those 4-6 hour events in which half the precip is wasted on mix/non-accumlating snow. Given current airmass, I'd go on the lower side for much of NYC and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Southern stream a bit stronger through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't think this run is bad. The vort over the northeast is weaker than the last run and will suppress the heights less in the hours ahead. Thus, I think the heights will recover. Also, the northern stream itself is a bit further south and digging a tad more...making for a flatter look initially, but once that vort in the northeast moves out, may help for the heights to recover downstream as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its surpressed, as compared I don't think "suppressed" is the right word. Flatter or less amplified would be more apt. That being said, there are so many northern vorts that can have an effect still...really too early to make a final judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 surface low looks to be stronger down south at 33hr, 700rh looking healthier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 H5 looking much better at 33 hours than earlier frames. Hit still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The heights are definitely more in a SW to NE fashion at our longitude than the 18z run...this is because of the vort I mentioned earlier being weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Def looks similar if not a little better at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't see big differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't think "suppressed" is the right word. Flatter or less amplified would be more apt. That being said, there are so many northern vorts that can have an effect still...really too early to make a final judgement. yes, but for the purposes of this conversation is 6 of these, half a dozen of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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