NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nah i think you'd still lose at least half to run off, the snow is pretty wet. 999lb's... :-) anyhow, GEFS are a solid hit. not too far off from the OP/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wow impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looking at the SREF's and today's model suite...I think a 3-6 inch storm from TTN to NYC is a lock. No more; no less. Just another event to add to the books and help our winter total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the pattern up in SE canada prevents this from really coming too far north. I'm honestly not worried about rain mixing in Right, the only downside potential to the snowfall forecast is the speed of the system. My guess is that the 12z Euro and GFS tomorrow will probably have the same amount of snow for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looking at the SREF's and today's model suite...I think a 3-6 inch storm from TTN to NYC is a lock. No more; no less. Just another event to add to the books and help our winter total. 6"+ is very much a possibility. STJ events tend to be fairly moist, and even though it's fast moving, a thump for several hours could yield 6-10" or so. The Euro today is not done trending IMO and will increase its QPF output noticably tonight. Virtually all data is wetter than the operational Euro as it stands. And by the way, as expected the GFS is taking the Euro to school with this event. The pattern does not favor suppression into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am thinking 4-8 because of: the track, lots of moisture, excellent VV's and great upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am thinking 4-8 because of: the track, lots of moisture, excellent VV's and great upper level support. That's probably a good bet lets hope you're right. Your reasoning is very sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 some of us may get just as much snow and some folks even more from the mid week event then we got we got from this past weekends storm - only got 6 inches in northern middlesex - areas south of here less..........only have about 3 inches left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Local tv mets predicting dusting to 3"....one quoted the RPM model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 some of us may get just as much snow and some folks even more from the mid week event then we got we got from this past weekends storm - only got 6 inches in northern middlesex - areas south of here less..........only have about 3 inches left Well they had 9-10" back home in Monmouth so I think it's going to be pretty tough to beat that. But two storms of 6"+ within a week would certainly be memorable if that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well they had 9-10" back home in Monmouth so I think it's going to be pretty tough to beat that. But two storms of 6"+ within a week would certainly be memorable if that occurs. Most of the posters in northern middlesex got 8-10. So that 6 is very suspect. Mgerb in somerset got 7.5 and New Brunswick 8. Got 10 here in edison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 .MIDDLESEX COUNTY... CHEESEQUAKE 9.8 245 AM 2/09 PUBLIC METUCHEN 8.9 915 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTH PLAINFIELD 8.8 948 AM 2/09 PUBLIC FORDS 8.5 1209 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER PISCATAWAY 8.5 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW BRUNSWICK 8.2 800 AM 2/09 CO-OP OBSERVER EAST BRUNSWICK 7.4 635 AM 2/09 PUBLIC KINGSTON 6.0 930 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MONROE TWP 6 inches was in the se corner of the county, were change over took longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Most of the posters in northern middlesex got 8-10. So that 6 is very suspect. Mgerb in somerset got 7.5 and New Brunswick 8. Got 10 here in edison. neg-nao has been the most pessimistic about the winter, and also that storm. So it isn't surprising he comes in here saying how he got the lowest (unrealistic obviously) total in middlesex county. He's like the new noreaster, who btw didn't post during the blizzard I dont believe...did he get banned? Havent seen him in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 18z RGEM was a good bit more amplified than the 12z run through 48 hours http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_18/QQ_GZ_UU_VV_048_0500.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Any concern that this amps up too much and we see rain? How much more would that have to be to have that happen, are we safe even with a large shift north, or any more north and we start to have issues? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Any concern that this amps up too much and we see rain? How much more would that have to be to have that happen, are we safe even with a large shift north, or any more north and we start to have issues? -skisheep Highly unlikely to happen. Not only is there a kicker back to the west-northwest, but an active/fast flow to the north over Southeast Canada. This is why you're seeing some models look amplified and then keep the best precipitation a little southeast of where it normally would be with the surface low moving east-northeast instead of north-northeast as it amplifies off the coast. The fast, active flow to the northwest of the system is pressing down on the pattern. So the more amped the shortwave can get, the better for anybody really north of Trenton. The pattern would support snow because the surface low would essentially be forced to tuck in southeast of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I also think that 4-8" of snow is a good bet for the Tri-State area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Rain is the least likely scenario. Not impossible, but I believe if it amps up enough and comes further north, it is going to have to have better dynamics and be a stronger system...and snowier.....or weaker and further south. Any concern that this amps up too much and we see rain? How much more would that have to be to have that happen, are we safe even with a large shift north, or any more north and we start to have issues? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Any concern that this amps up too much and we see rain? How much more would that have to be to have that happen, are we safe even with a large shift north, or any more north and we start to have issues? -skisheep Talked about it earlier. Pattern in SE Canada prevents too northerly of a track. If anything we need to worry about its fast speed and the kicker, both of which would make it more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 .MIDDLESEX COUNTY... CHEESEQUAKE 9.8 245 AM 2/09 PUBLIC METUCHEN 8.9 915 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTH PLAINFIELD 8.8 948 AM 2/09 PUBLIC FORDS 8.5 1209 PM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER PISCATAWAY 8.5 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW BRUNSWICK 8.2 800 AM 2/09 CO-OP OBSERVER EAST BRUNSWICK 7.4 635 AM 2/09 PUBLIC KINGSTON 6.0 930 AM 2/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MONROE TWP 6 inches was in the se corner of the county, were change over took longer well the totals were not uniform and I only received 6.4 inches check this out most counties had a couple low totals - must have been my punishment for believing Alan Kasper and his rain forecast and then low snow total forecast http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This storm could trend stronger given the stj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good to know that rain is mostly out of the equation, thanks for your helpful replies and insight! Still slightly reserved on this to not having the EURO onboard, but it's shift at 12z makes me want to toss it in regards to QPF(since it probably will eventually come around, and we know that it's on the right track), and go with a GFS/NAM/GGEM combo, resulting in 3-6/4-8" for the metro area. Would not be shocked to see upton go with watches in the overnight package, although I think they might go advisories for 4-6" instead, the odds of 6" across a widespread area with this are relativley low, but I think 4-6" is much more likely. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 50/50 low in SE Canada essentially puts a "lid" on the amount of amplification / height rises over the Northeast. If there was no blocking vortex, then the sern vort would have free reign to cut northward. However, as stands, I don't see why modelling would change significantly from where we're at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gefs are real nice. Most of them jackpot NYC and bring warning snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Most of the posters in northern middlesex got 8-10. So that 6 is very suspect. Mgerb in somerset got 7.5 and New Brunswick 8. Got 10 here in edison. There were reports of only 6 in Woodbridge and Piscataway; my BIL measured only 6 in Piscataway while some areas there reported 8. The Home News reported only 5 for Newark, and that has to be wrong. Woodbridge always under measures and had us down for 8 after the Snowicaine, when it was obviously more. I saw a report of around 8 in Fords and 10 in Edison. so figure a general 6-11 fell, which was in line with actual projections.But as for this storm, since i am on the cusp of Mt Holly and Upton, the reports I see from Mt Holly refelected uncertainty. It does seem to look a bit warm to my untrained eye, and we will need north/northeast winds or it will rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gefs are real nice. Most of them jackpot NYC and bring warning snowfall Ya they are the wettest yet I think. Track looks solid too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There were reports of only 6 in Woodbridge and Piscataway; my BIL measured only 6 in Piscataway while some areas there reported 8. The Home News reported only 5 for Newark, and that has to be wrong. Woodbridge always under measures and had us down for 8 after the Snowicaine, when it was obviously more. I saw a report of around 8 in Fords and 10 in Edison. so figure a general 6-11 fell, which was in line with actual projections.But as for this storm, since i am on the cusp of Mt Holly and Upton, the reports I see from Mt Holly refelected uncertainty. It does seem to look a bit warm to my untrained eye, and we will need north/northeast winds or it will rain. Our two posters from Woodbridge and Piscataway had 7-9, where did you get this report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 some of us may get just as much snow and some folks even more from the mid week event then we got we got from this past weekends storm - only got 6 inches in northern middlesex - areas south of here less..........only have about 3 inches left Well they had 9-10" back home in Monmouth so I think it's going to be pretty tough to beat that. But two storms of 6"+ within a week would certainly be memorable if that occurs. Most of the posters in northern middlesex got 8-10. So that 6 is very suspect. Mgerb in somerset got 7.5 and New Brunswick 8. Got 10 here in edison. Yep. I got 10.5" in Metuchen, in the heart of northern Middlesex, and I suspect that the 8.9" report from Metuchen might be lower than it should be for two reasons: first, I'm not sure the person included the 0.5" we got in the morning, which melted with the rainfall after that, and second, if they truly measured at 9:15 am, they likely would have seen 0.5-0.75" of compaction relative to my 7:00 am measurement, which was taken before the sun came up and just an hour or so after the last flurries were over - I remeasured at 10 am and my snow depth had compacted by 0.75", so I could easily see a 9:15 am measurement being 0.5" low. I'm also kind of a nut when I measure - I generally average out several measurements and I always take at least 10 measurements with my final measurement (possibly not needed for this storm, since drifiting was minimal, but sometimes it's important). Also, if you look at the NWS snowfall map, just about all of Middlesex County is in the 8-12" swath, as were all the reports, so 6" is simply not credible. Lastly, every report from Union County, 7+ miles north of me, was over 10" and same for Staten Island, which is 5+ miles east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yep. I got 10.5" in Metuchen, in the heart of northern Middlesex, and I suspect that the 8.9" report from Metuchen might be lower than it should be for two reasons: first, I'm not sure the person included the 0.5" we got in the morning, which melted with the rainfall after that, and second, if they truly measured at 9:15 am, they likely would have seen 0.5-0.75" of compaction relative to my 7:00 am measurement, which was taken before the sun came up and just an hour or so after the last flurries were over - I remeasured at 10 am and my snow depth had compacted by 0.75", so I could easily see a 9:15 am measurement being 0.5" low. I'm also kind of a nut when I measure - I generally average out several measurements and I always take at least 10 measurements with my final measurement (possibly not needed for this storm, since drifiting was minimal, but sometimes it's important). Also, if you look at the NWS snowfall map, just about all of Middlesex County is in the 8-12" swath, as were all the reports, so 6" is simply not credible. Lastly, every report from Union County, 7+ miles north of me, was over 10" and same for Staten Island, which is 5+ miles east of me. I seriously wish you would become a trained spotter, your report would be great for our area. His 6 makes no sense and is just another last minute attempt to poo poo the event. Was at haileys with my gf before going to Knicks game yesterday. She is from metuchen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yep. I got 10.5" in Metuchen, in the heart of northern Middlesex, and I suspect that the 8.9" report from Metuchen might be lower than it should be for two reasons: first, I'm not sure the person included the 0.5" we got in the morning, which melted with the rainfall after that, and second, if they truly measured at 9:15 am, they likely would have seen 0.5-0.75" of compaction relative to my 7:00 am measurement, which was taken before the sun came up and just an hour or so after the last flurries were over - I remeasured at 10 am and my snow depth had compacted by 0.75", so I could easily see a 9:15 am measurement being 0.5" low. I'm also kind of a nut when I measure - I generally average out several measurements and I always take at least 10 measurements with my final measurement (possibly not needed for this storm, since drifiting was minimal, but sometimes it's important). Also, if you look at the NWS snowfall map, just about all of Middlesex County is in the 8-12" swath, as were all the reports, so 6" is simply not credible. Lastly, every report from Union County, 7+ miles north of me, was over 10" and same for Staten Island, which is 5+ miles east of me. The nws did remove almost all reports that were either wildly inaccurate or posted before storm was over, but curiosly left up a few. I highly doubt that 5 in SI and that 7.5 in Greenwich village in NYC was at 207, which was probably right for 207 but it snowed for another two hours. And from 151 to 451 am CPK recorded almost 0.2 liquid or around 2-5-3 inches if snow. So that probably should've been removed along with a couple others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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