Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What about temps?. A little warm to start at surface but they do look good! 850s plenty cold! Looks like all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Will be similar to NOV in terms of , you start in mid 30`s once the heavy precip starts u drop right to the freezing mark and it will be a cement show . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The non weenies (the general public) are not going to like dealing with a heavy wet snow just after they've dealt with this one. Central NJ looks like a good spot right now honestly. Being a little far north than central NJ might help with surface temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 what if this is not done trending NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 this looks like a quick 4-6 inch snowfall between wed night and thurs morning. Even DT agrees that a general 4-6 inch snowfall is possible in his latest facebook post but he was adamant the past few days that there was NO WAY this would come north, that it was a southern mid atl storm all the way. he did great with the blizzard but its annoying when he gets very locked in on an idea 4/5 days, and when things change....he does a weird job of backtracking. hes a talented MET but bi-polar in his forecasting at times lol. you guys back home are having a pretty sweet FEB btw. this system looks like a nice borderline WSW event for some locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the pattern up in SE canada prevents this from really coming too far north. I'm honestly not worried about rain mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Pardon me , onto threat 2 , will be back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What's up with Mount Holly NWS? I see they're calling for rain before 1am and then a rain/snow mix here Wednesday night. Looks to me like it would be all snow at night. What are they seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Their zones have been on the weaker side recently. I do think we all start as light rain with this and then to a period of moderate snow that accumulates on leftover snow and lawns. What's up with Mount Holly NWS? I see they're calling for rain before 1am and then a rain/snow mix here Wednesday night. Looks to me like it would be all snow at night. What are they seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Beautiful run of the 18z GFS, low end warning for all. The public isn't going to like this one too much, they still are digging out from the last storm, and 5-7" of paste is the last thing they need. Based on the timing of this, would it have a decent chance to close schools on Thursday morning? or is all of the precip out in time for the road crews to clean up and get the busses running? Talking suburbs, not NYC which basically dosent close unless it's a foot+. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 what if this is not done trending NW Definitely going to be a GLC, rain for everyone. Warms into the 50's. Definitely going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What's up with Mount Holly NWS? I see they're calling for rain before 1am and then a rain/snow mix here Wednesday night. Looks to me like it would be all snow at night. What are they seeing? Good question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You Sufflok county guys w 30 inches of snow on your roof , with a half inch of rain in it today , better clear you`re roofs .Smithhaven mall in Suffolk county evacuated due to fear of roof collapse..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Smithhaven mall in Suffolk county evacuated due to fear of roof collapse..... That is near here right on the Smithtown/Brookhaven border, hence the name. Flat roofs are the worst for accumulating snow/water loads. I'm a little nervous here, but there has been a steady trickle of water through the downspouts since the rain stopped a few hours ago so the weight on roofs is lessening. It also eases my mind about ice damming which is a problem I have been thinking more about for a few days. With that being a problem 3 years out of the past 4, maybe I should find a very long roof rake. Problem is, if I do that, it will never snow again. The worst problem I had was after the 12/09 storm. No water in the house so far this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Smithhaven mall in Suffolk county evacuated due to fear of roof collapse..... Bowling alley in Smithtown did have a roof collapse as did another home in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Since we're in the 40's right now, i wonder if a garden hose would be effective to rid the roof of some snow...you'd have to have some patience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Smithhaven mall in Suffolk county evacuated due to fear of roof collapse..... I heard a report of a small sinkhole that opened up on the Loop Parkway. I'll see If I can get some conformation that there were a number of cars damaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Since we're in the 40's right now, i wonder if a garden hose would be effective to rid the roof of some snow...you'd have to have some patience... Funny you say that; I was wondering the same thing before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Funny you say that; I was wondering the same thing before.more than likely the snow pack would absorb the water at first which in the short term would add weight and therefore make it more dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Since we're in the 40's right now, i wonder if a garden hose would be effective to rid the roof of some snow...you'd have to have some patience...you'd be adding water weight before it melts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you'd be adding water weight before it melts Yup... Hundreds of pounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yup... Hundreds of pounds. thousands* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We had a similar situation right after the 96 storm that was right near my relative's house in Massapequa. http://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/13/nyregion/blizzard-1996-damage-least-14-hurt-snow-s-weight-brings-down-roof-li-supermarket.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yup... Hundreds of pounds. lol...ya its not that simple obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you'd be adding water weight before it melts Probably not the best idea, although if I had tried it, I would have worked from the melting edge back (upwards) so the water could drain through the gutters as I went. The best thing about today is that water is running through the downspouts again and the jungle of icicles has dropped from the edge of the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yup... Hundreds of pounds. But if you have a sloped roof and start at the bottom, you'll be fine, since you'll only be adding a small weight since much of the water will be running off and melting at the same time - you don't want to start up top and have all the water trickle down and saturate the snow, adding a huge weight to the roof. Alternatively, just get up on the roof and shovel - I used to do that for big storms, as we had minor water damage on the interior drywall ceiling below our modestly pitched roof with big snowstorms (and rainstorms), until we got our roof redone (tore off 2 layers and installed a much better roof that hasn't leaked in 2 years). The fun part of shoveling a boatload of snow off the roof is you then create a 4-5 foot giant pile of snow on the ground, which is great fun to dive into, from the roof. My wife hated when I'd do that with our toddler son in my arms - he loved it and we continued to do it for years - separately, when he got big enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looking good for a moderate snow event if you believe the GFS/NAM/JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 thousands* Nah i think you'd still lose at least half to run off, the snow is pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looking good for a moderate snow event if you believe the GFS/NAM/JMA More like the GFS/NAM/JMA/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 But if you have a sloped roof and start at the bottom, you'll be fine, since you'll only be adding a small weight since much of the water will be running off and melting at the same time - you don't want to start up top and have all the water trickle down and saturate the snow, adding a huge weight to the roof. You've read some posts by people here, right? There is no doubt in my mind some would start at the ridge line. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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