IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 moderate hit on the nam. Probably closer to 0.5 than 0.75-1 from last run I wouldn't look past hr 48. At hr 48 it's much more amplified than 12z and looks like it wanted to close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks at the h7 map at hr57, it doesnt appear as if the precip is being distributed properly, look at the VV's over C-N NJ and NYC/LI...and little to no precip...doubtful looks at the h7 map at hr57, it doesnt appear as if the precip is being distributed properly, look at the VV's over C-N NJ and NYC/LI...and little to no precip...doubtful same thing with hr60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0.5 line runs from central jersey up through the south shore of western LI and all of eastern LI up into coastal eastern CT, RI and SE mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is pretty much identical to the 12z NAM. The only major difference is that it's very fast. In and out of here in probably 6 hours. Otherwise it would be wetter than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 guess if the 0z suite holds serve good chance of winter storm watches going up first half of tomorrow You might see them tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks at the h7 map at hr57, it doesnt appear as if the precip is being distributed properly, look at the VV's over C-N NJ and NYC/LI...and little to no precip...doubtful exactly...it looks weird, should have those higher precip areas further north. Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ggem does support those totals and you're not being specific because your area in SW ct is slightly different than the south shore of LI you know? both the EURO and the GFS do not bring anywhere close to 6" for my area, and upton has 5.8" here. when the two major globals have nothing more than 2-4", and one of the two models that has the amounts that you are forecasting is the NAM at long range, I think it's a bit too soon to be throwing 6" totals around. Could it happen, absolutley, do I think it will happen, I'm becoming more confident with every run, do I think that upton should forecast it, not yet. If 0z holds serve and we see a shift from the EURO yes, but not yet. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Upton WOW aggressive for such a progressive system . I guess it`s a thump and go . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 exactly...it looks weird, should have those higher precip areas further north. Who knows? Look at hr 48 at 500mb. Major improvements. I really thought it was going to close off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Suprised at upton for going borderline warning criteria with this, the EURO is still 1-3" and the GFS 2-4", only model that really supports those totals is the NAM. (GGEM comes close, could possibly do it). Guess they think the trend isn't over yet. -skisheep There were some fairly large north shifts at 12z today and these systems from the Gulf/south often trend north at the end if there's nothing else in the way. The one thing I can still see screwing it up is the kicker-otherwise I think we're in a good spot for this one-this will likely a borderline SECS for us, but a nice refresher after the melting we're getting now. If the runs tonight are still a go-I could see watches issued in the morning. Models are showing this enhancing as it accesses the Atlantic, so it could put many of us just over warning amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 BTW The boundary layer may be colder than progged . Snowcover today worked great and kept temps closer to 40 in and around the city , far from the 50 that was forecasted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 IF all the models continue to show this tonight, and if the ecmwf ticks more north, I expect upton to put the metro area on a winter storm watch for wed into thurs come tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 42 right now at KNYC....43 was the best we could do not even close to 49. But I coulda told you that earlier we wouldnt close in on 50. 850's maxed out between 1pm and 4pm (now) and begin to drop off throughout the night. Its funny the "warm" day of the week will probably end up 43/34 and tomorrow will probably have a similar split. Just a tad above average. Looking like itll be a solidly cold month at least though the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 IF all the models continue to show this tonight, and if the ecmwf ticks more north, I expect upton to put the metro area on a winter storm watch for wed into thurs come tomorrow morning This is your tell right here, no watches coming Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY343 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-122045-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-343 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEETNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.&&THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIALWIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNINGCRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES INEFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWSWARNING CRITERIA.$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 this is your typical overnight snowstorm...best chances at sticking throughout and could be disruptive to morning commute. 18z nam has precip ending around 15z Thursday, or 10am. My best is it starts earlier and is over by the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is your tell right here, no watches coming Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY343 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-122045-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-343 PM EST MON FEB 11 2013...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERNCONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THEINTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT WOULD MEETNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.&&THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIALWIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNINGCRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES INEFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWSWARNING CRITERIA.$ I don't think thats possible based upon their snowfall map lol. Plus I'd wait to read the AFD they usually highlight what they;re thinking. ie just advisory level snows at most. 3-5 is usually the cut off...anything higher is wsw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I wouldn't be surprised if QPF goes up somewhat given where this storm is originating from but it's quick movement should limit major snowfall. Best case I could see is 6-10" with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 nvm they explain it in the afd. only 30% confidence in warning level so now mention in hwo YET. Tomorrow morning may be a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I don't think thats possible based upon their snowfall map lol. Plus I'd wait to read the AFD they usually highlight what they;re thinking. ie just advisory level snows at most. 3-5 is usually the cut off...anything higher is wsw. If upton is calling for those totals it is a advisory at minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I don't think thats possible based upon their snowfall map lol. Plus I'd wait to read the AFD they usually highlight what they;re thinking. ie just advisory level snows at most. 3-5 is usually the cut off...anything higher is wsw I think the end result is that we get a watch, just not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 nvm they explain it in the afd. only 30% confidence in warning level so now mention in hwo YET. Tomorrow morning may be a different story 3-5 is advisory and im not sold on anything above 6 for the city yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 BTW The boundary layer may be colder than progged . Snowcover today worked great and kept temps closer to 40 in and around the city , far from the 50 that was forecasted . I don't think we would much to rain or mix. Winds look to stay northerly, off snowcovered land and most of the event is at night. It could be a 10 or 12:1 ratio snow but I don't think mixing would be a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 . If upton is calling for those totals it is a advisory at minimum they say advisory level for sure, 30% confidence for warning level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hi-res NAM SE of 12km NAM. Barely gets precip north of the city. weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hi-res NAM SE of 12km NAM. Barely gets precip north of the city. weird It gets a good bit of precip to the north of the city per the ncep maps: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=18ℑ=nam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_057_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Upton likes a 3-6 inch snowfall 12z European model (ecmwf) has trended northward with the surface low - mainly because it now has a more reasonable low placement compared to its 500 and 700 hpa features compared to the 00z European model (ecmwf) - which had its surface low to far to the S/east compared to its upper air features. The 12z NAM is a strong outlier by around 50m with the strength of its 500 hpa trough Wednesday night...so do not buy into its quantitative precipitation forecast. The interesting thing is that aloft the solutions among the various models are not all that different...its at the surface and boundary layer where the differences lie. Noting that most solutions seem to be tending towards one like the 12z GFS...have used it as the general basis for the forecast from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. However...given the known progressive bias to the model...have lingered chance probability of precipitation into Thursday morning over far east zones. Have used a blend of nax/maximum guidance wet bulb temperatures for the low temperature and hourly temperature grids Wednesday night - under cutting the forecast temperatures in the mav/met guidance by a few degrees. As a result - with no warm layer forecast aloft...precipitation should fall as all snow Wednesday night. For now forecasting a general 3-6 inch snow fall across the tri-state - with highest amounts across NYC metropolitan/Long Island/coastal CT. This is solidly in the advisory category. Currently confidence at warning level snow fall is not at 30% - so will not be mentioning this storm in the severe weather potential statement at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It gets a good bit of precip to the north of the city per the ncep maps: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=18ℑ=nam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_057_sim_reflectivity.gif ya based on reflectivity you'd think so but the precip maps on SV say otherwise. About 0.1 in the city. Something doesn;t look right but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 3-5 is advisory and im not sold on anything above 6 for the city yet Very limited 6 inch amounts on the Upton map. That is an advisory level event if it verifies that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ya based on reflectivity you'd think so but the precip maps on SV say otherwise. About 0.1 in the city. Something doesn;t look right but who knows I wouldn't get carried away, it's still at the tail end of the NAM's good range and based on what it looks like at hr 48 at 500mb I wouldn't worry too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Very limited 6 inch amounts on the Upton map. That is an advisory level event if it verifies that way. Honestly with the current snowpack already down nobody is going to tell the real difference between 4" and 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.