Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 agreed albeit slightly Yeah, the differences are pretty minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Very small differences with the 18z NAM so far. A touch less digging as Yanksfan said. Very small differences with the 18z NAM so far. A touch less digging as Yanksfan said. somehow the northern stream caught up and then some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I knew the NAM would go south. Although it's slightly south through HR 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 upton honking over there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The precip fields are almost exactly the same, except the precip is slightly more organized at 12z over the Carolinas than 18z for the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I knew the NAM would go south. Although it's slightly south through HR 42. its not there yet lets wait and see before making proclamations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The surface low is nearly the same exact spot at 18z as it was at 12z. The only differences are that now it's a tad weaker, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its not there yet lets wait and see before making proclamations Yeah it's always easy to say that after it's already happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Pressure is actually one millibar lower than the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Upton That's pretty solid on top of the storm you just had. Enjoy it if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hr 39, the trough is actually coming around, it's just delayed. I don't expect any big differences in the final outcome from 12z, except a bit of a shift in timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 low position at 51 looks basically the same, maybe slightly north on 18z. Its gonna be a similar result guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hr 39, the trough is actually coming around, it's just delayed. I don't expect any big differences in the final outcome from 12z, except a bit of a shift in timing. ya by 51 things actually look a tad better. Its faster and thus appears different. All in all very similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's pretty solid on top of the storm you just had. Enjoy it if it happens. It's probably enough for watches despite totals being just under warning criteria as currently forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 at 54, rh map shows big hit incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ya by 51 things actually look a tad better. Its faster and thus appears different. All in all very similar to 12z You really wanted to see this dig further south and pick up some decent gulf convection, that would help to pump up heights out ahead of it and turn the corner faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hr 42, still a bit flatter with the base of the trough, although again probably not enough to make a real difference. She is starting to go negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Another nice Nam run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Upton I think is the most accurate and advanced nws offices at least in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wow, didn't see this coming, by hr 48 it's going crazy with amplification compared to hr 54 at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 moderate hit on the nam. Probably closer to 0.5 than 0.75-1 from last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I love you, NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Suprised at upton for going borderline warning criteria with this, the EURO is still 1-3" and the GFS 2-4", only model that really supports those totals is the NAM. (GGEM comes close, could possibly do it). Guess they think the trend isn't over yet. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Latest RPM gives NYC a 4-8 in snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Suprised at upton for going borderline warning criteria with this, the EURO is still 1-3" and the GFS 2-4", only model that really supports those totals is the NAM. (GGEM comes close, could possibly do it). Guess they think the trend isn't over yet. -skisheep ggem does support those totals and you're not being specific because your area in SW ct is slightly different than the south shore of LI you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is pretty much identical to the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 passes right over the bm on the nam, I just think the precip field isn;t quite as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 guess if the 0z suite holds serve good chance of winter storm watches going up first half of tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks at the h7 map at hr57, it doesnt appear as if the precip is being distributed properly, look at the VV's over C-N NJ and NYC/LI...and little to no precip...doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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