H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The Boxing day storm was caught by the Euro 1st a week out and then it lost it , like i said remember they all lost it 2 - 4 days out , then the GFS re caught it 1 st before ncep said ignore it . I love the Euro , its a beat IF 5 straight days of driving a slp SE off the coast , while the GFS was steadfast , then 2 days out bringing .25 up . Its a 500 mile treck north in 24 hours is a beat . If this was the GFS we ( I ) would be telling the world about its SE bias and that it sucks , so Im just trying to be fair here . I live and die with the Euro , regardless of how much QPF i think its a beat GFS actually sniffed out Boxing Day an astounding 9 days in advance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z sref's further north, more amped, wetter. Looks to be close to .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks to be close to .5 yes around there. Much better than 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 *** 12Z EURO COMES A TAD NORTH ...for the feb 13-14 event.. . still does not have alot of snow/ precip with it for NYC LI CT long island DT on facebook is such a joke. He refuses to believe that any north trend is taking place. He really takes it hard when his initial predictions don't pan out. His actual posts seem ot indicate otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Very NAM/GGEM like Not quite. Getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 *** 12Z EURO COMES A TAD NORTH ...for the feb 13-14 event.. . still does not have alot of snow/ precip with it for NYC LI CT long island His actual posts seem ot indicate otherwise no its because he isnt forecasting 6 inches plus so he gets bashed..unbelievable how people are around here if someone does not give a forecast that they want to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 no its because he isnt forecasting 6 inches plus so he gets bashed..unbelievable how people are around here if someone does not give a forecast that they want to hear no its because he isnt forecasting 6 inches plus so he gets bashed..unbelievable how people are around here if someone does not give a forecast that they want to hear i still think he is sometimes biased to the mid atlantic and always lives and dies by the EURO.... like everyone has been saying the EURO is not perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Southern stream already looks more robust on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 *** 12Z EURO COMES A TAD NORTH ...for the feb 13-14 event.. . still does not have alot of snow/ precip with it for NYC LI CT long island His actual posts seem ot indicate otherwise Not when you read the discussions to his posts and that one in particular. He is clearly not wanting to see precip come above the mason dixie line. Notice how he said a "TAD north" and then had to mention the last part that there is still not a lot of precip for NYC etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If you look at H500, it made major shifts toward more amplified guidance. It certainly wasn't just a tick. It wouldn't surprise me if this kept trending in future runs-I don't see much to the north of it that stops it from amplifying. A lot of times, these systems keep trending north unless the kicker catches up to it, or confluence to the north increases significantly. We're almost 48 hours out, so hopefully tonight we can start locking in whatever happens. Preliminarily I'd say 5-10" if we have a more amplified GGEM/NAM type storm-which I think is quite possible here. We might lose some initial QPF from warm initial conditions but it goes to a heavy wet paste quickly. If it keeps trending further north and the other guidance holds serve, then it will be a big miss on the Euro's part. It's still a north trend towards the other models. It's yet to be determined exactly how much precip we can wring out of this fast moving system here. The Boxing day storm was caught by the Euro 1st a week out and then it lost it , like i said remember they all lost it 2 - 4 days out , then the GFS re caught it 1 st before ncep said ignore it . I love the Euro , its a beat IF 5 straight days of driving a slp SE off the coast , while the GFS was steadfast , then 2 days out bringing .25 up . Its a 500 mile treck north in 24 hours is a beat . If this was the GFS we ( I ) would be telling the world about its SE bias and that it sucks , so Im just trying to be fair here . I live and die with the Euro , regardless of how much QPF i think its a beat In a really amplified set up like last week, either the OP Euro or ensembles usually get the storm idea right. But I have seen the Euro miss on smaller to moderate events here. It's just that people don't tend to remember light to moderate rain events when the GFS was wet and the Euro was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 no its because he isnt forecasting 6 inches plus so he gets bashed..unbelievable how people are around here if someone does not give a forecast that they want to hear Dude, I am in Israel haha. It doesn't matter to me whether he gives a forecast that favors snow in NYC or not. I am mainly here for good weather discussion, and when it comes to DT, his discussions about weather can be awful sometimes. The guy has issues with being wrong and it's not professional for a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Through hr 9 the southern stream wave is definitley at least a tad stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Through hr 18, southern stream trough is more amplified than 12z. 12z at hr 21 VS hr 18 on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 no its because he isnt forecasting 6 inches plus so he gets bashed..unbelievable how people are around here if someone does not give a forecast that they want to hear I've coined a term for this...'combative weenie-ism' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I've coined a term for this...'combative weenie-ism' I've coined a term for this...'combative weenie-ism' LOLOL, classic. On to the 18Z NAM, the northern stream energy seems a bit delayed and the southern ever so slightly more quick....better spacing between the two should/could leads to a more amped result.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOLOL, classic. On to the 18Z NAM, the northern stream energy seems a bit delayed and the southern ever so slightly more quick....better spacing between the two should/could leads to a more amped result.. and at 27 it is indeed slightly more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hour 27 on the 18z NAM, the trough is less amplified compared to hour 21-24 on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT on facebook is such a joke. He refuses to believe that any north trend is taking place. He really takes it hard when his initial predictions don't pan out. He cursed me out for saying it was north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hour 27 on the 18z NAM, the trough is less amplified. heights are slightly higher out of ahead of it, but it could just be faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hour 27 on the 18z NAM, the trough is less amplified. You and Kaner should speak - complete opposite analysis. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 He cursed me out for saying it was north He also did that to me before the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You and Kaner should speak - complete opposite analysis. Rossi the trough is more neutral tilted and the vort could just be faster...but heights out ahead are the same or slightly higher. in the end though at 33 the differences are small at least at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the trough is more neutral tilted and the vort could just be faster...but heights out ahead are the same or slightly higher. in the end though at 33 the differences are small at least at 500mb I think it's actually timing differences. I don't really see any major changes that stick out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 maybe it's best if u dont know exactly what you are looking at to wait ntil the model run is complete and digest it then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 by 36 heights are lower over our area, could just be timing differences though with energy moving through. We'll see how it looks in a couple minutes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT on facebook is such a joke. He refuses to believe that any north trend is taking place. He really takes it hard when his initial predictions don't pan out. I still like his week in weather video from last weekend (Feb 3rd) that showed the big rains for the east coast, which as we all know was a nice blizzard 5 days later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hr 36, it's not digging as much as hr 42 at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Very small differences with the 18z NAM so far. A touch less digging as Yanksfan said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 id be surprised if this is not south of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 id be surprised if this is not south of 12z agreed albeit slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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