Allsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hr 60 mod snow up to ewr. 998 just east of Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Surface low just east of Ocean City Maryland at 60. Light to moderate snow up to Philly and into Northern NJ. Might still be a scraper this run as far as the bigger amounts near NYC. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yup...the big stuff is just offshore at 66 hours. Looks like 0.25" line gets to NYC or just south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Good enough on the euro to see the gfs wins to an extent if it happened today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I didn't think it would correct all the way so its line line with other models, but at this point it isn't in la la land. A blend between the euro/gfs/ggem/nam/ukie is a moderate event for us. It'll continue to be the southern outlier I'd imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 .25" line scrapes southern Union County(ish), JFK, and southern LI this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well the trend towards a track closer to the coast continues. I guess we'll have to wait for the 00z runs for a better consensus. We might get watches SE for the afternoon packages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Around .25 for nyx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well, nice move even if its not the NAM/GGEM/GFS.... EURO-1-3/2-4"GFS- 3-6"GGEM- 6-10" NAM- 6-10" UKIE- 1-3/2-4"? Chances are high we get something....and Ill run with the GFS since that has been the most consistent by far with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 .25" line scrapes southern Union County(ish), JFK, and southern LI this run. What does it show for the Jersey coast ( Monmouth) Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 So just under .25 here, correct? Probably 1-3" here verbatim here on EURO, but don't think it's done yet. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What does it show for the Jersey coast ( Monmouth) Rossi .25+ some of that is light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 well at least the trend is there... it will be interesting to see what the ensembles show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great leap for the Euro . Can`t remember last time i saw the Euro get beat this badly . Usually when it spits the bit in the mid range . the other models have missed it too. This time it was the last one through the door . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 .25+ some of that is light rain yea I was just about to say that, the euro is basically nada for southern NYC after you factor in the light rain, maybe an inch of snow? The north and west suburbs basically get zilch, less than whatever the city gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yea I was just about to say that, the euro is basically nada for NYC after you factor in the light rain, maybe an inch of snow? The north and west suburbs basically get zilch, less than whatever the city gets huh? there is no light rain for NYC...at least not based on soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great leap for the Euro . Can`t remember last time i saw the Euro get beat this badly . Usually when it spits the bit in the mid range . the other models have missed it too. This time it was the last one through the door . the event hasn't happened yet but GFS has dominated this one so far. Has shown a hit for this area since 150+ hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 huh? there is no light rain for NYC...at least not based on soundings. the soundings you looked at show the surface temps at what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great leap for the Euro . Can`t remember last time i saw the Euro get beat this badly . Usually when it spits the bit in the mid range . the other models have missed it too. This time it was the last one through the door . Going from no precip to only .25 is not really a beat. If we get closer to .5, then it will be significant. The Euro can sometimes underperform with weaker systems but usually not strong ones. You saw the ensemble mean further north than the OP last night which was the clue. But it did not come all the way on this run. The last big miss by the Euro was Boxing Day on that Friday run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Going from no precip to only .25 is not really a beat. If we get closer to .5, then it will be significant. The Euro can sometimes underperform with weaker systems but usually not strong ones. maybe not being beat, but it clearly was the last to trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Going from no precip to only .25 is not really a beat. If we get closer to .5, then it will be significant. The Euro can sometimes underperform with weaker systems but usually not strong ones. You saw the ensemble mean further north than the OP last night which was the clue. But it did not come all the way on this run. If you look at H500, it made major shifts toward more amplified guidance. It certainly wasn't just a tick. It wouldn't surprise me if this kept trending in future runs-I don't see much to the north of it that stops it from amplifying. A lot of times, these systems keep trending north unless the kicker catches up to it, or confluence to the north increases significantly. We're almost 48 hours out, so hopefully tonight we can start locking in whatever happens. Preliminarily I'd say 5-10" if we have a more amplified GGEM/NAM type storm-which I think is quite possible here. We might lose some initial QPF from warm initial conditions but it goes to a heavy wet paste quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Going from no precip to only .25 is not really a beat. If we get closer to .5, then it will be significant. The Euro can sometimes underperform with weaker systems but usually not strong ones. You saw the ensemble mean further north than the OP last night which was the clue. But it did not come all the way on this run. The last big miss by the Euro was Boxing Day on that Friday run. It's still a north trend towards the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Going from no precip to only .25 is not really a beat. If we get closer to .5, then it will be significant. The Euro can sometimes underperform with weaker systems but usually not strong ones. You saw the ensemble mean further north than the OP last night which was the clue. But it did not come all the way on this run. The last big miss by the Euro was Boxing Day on that Friday run. The Boxing day storm was caught by the Euro 1st a week out and then it lost it , like i said remember they all lost it 2 - 4 days out , then the GFS re caught it 1 st before ncep said ignore it .I love the Euro , its a beat IF 5 straight days of driving a slp SE off the coast , while the GFS was steadfast , then 2 days out bringing .25 up . Its a 500 mile treck north in 24 hours is a beat . If this was the GFS we ( I ) would be telling the world about its SE bias and that it sucks , so Im just trying to be fair here . I live and die with the Euro , regardless of how much QPF i think its a beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i think considering the type of pattern we are in right now, supporting more of a amplified solution; we could definitely see a moderate snowfall out of this. Mother nature likes to go through cycles and I think we are in a cycle where we can be hit mutiple times... i guess we will find out this the midweek storm and the weekend coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's still a north trend towards the other models. DT on facebook is such a joke. He refuses to believe that any north trend is taking place. He really takes it hard when his initial predictions don't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT on facebook is such a joke. He refuses to believe that any north trend is taking place. He really takes it hard when his initial predictions don't pan out. Tell him he`s right , theres no northern trend the NAM and GFS havent moved in 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT on facebook is such a joke. He refuses to believe that any north trend is taking place. He really takes it hard when his initial predictions don't pan out. Yeah he's determined for this to be a southern Midatlantic storm only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z sref's further north, more amped, wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the sref's fall in line with the rest of the guidance. around 0.25-0.5 for most of the region (closer to 0.5)...slightly more further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 15z sref's further north, more amped, wetter. Very NAM/GGEM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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