February 13-14th Potential Winter Storm Threat Discussion

[Kaner587]

ggem gets much of the area into the 0.5-0.75

[ace0927]

Even the NOGAPS is well NW of the Euro now. I think it's only a matter of time. 

 

 

Even the NOGAPS is well NW of the Euro now. I think it's only a matter of time. 

a bit off topic - did you notice the nogaps for the 2nd storm..woooha

[TKFJ]

ggem in more detail

 

Closer look.. 

[Kaner587]

Eh, I would buy into this more if it was well farther south. It seems to be generally on track with the NAM through 60 hours (we can't see the 4km graphics past that on ewall)..maybe just a hair south.

bluewave seems to be grasping at straws here....bluewave you're a great source of info and some of your analog stuff and mid range stuff is the best around. But with this winter, you've been so negative and pessimistic of ALL snow and cold chances. Even the blizzard last week. Not sure why...

 

Granted he has a point about the northern extent and that the reality is probably not as amped as the 12z nam, but I think many of us realize that anyway.

[ace0927]

12z NAM bufkit totals

 

KMMU

 

130214/0300Z  63  07005KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

130214/0400Z  64  05007KT  31.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060    7:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  04010KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061    8:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  03008KT  30.6F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100    9:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  02009KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.182   11:1|  4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02010KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174   13:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  36010KT  30.5F  SNOW   20:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.134   14:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  36010KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063   14:1| 10.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  36009KT  31.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   14:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0

 

KHPN

 

130214/0400Z  64  06006KT  31.5F  SNOW   16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   16:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  05008KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092   10:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  04011KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066    9:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  02009KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111   11:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02010KT  30.5F  SNOW   16:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.162   13:1|  5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  01011KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172   14:1|  8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  35011KT  30.6F  SNOW   18:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135   15:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  35011KT  31.0F  SNOW   20:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069   15:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82  100|  0|  0

130214/1200Z  72  35010KT  31.7F  SNOW   21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   15:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0

 

KSWF

 

130214/0400Z  64  VRB02KT  31.0F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   15:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  07004KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050   13:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  05006KT  30.1F  SNOW   17:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   16:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  02006KT  29.9F  SNOW    9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080   14:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02006KT  29.7F  SNOW   12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144   13:1|  4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  01006KT  29.7F  SNOW   14:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160   13:1|  7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  35007KT  29.7F  SNOW    4:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   12:1|  7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  36006KT  29.9F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   12:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60  100|  0|  0

 

KLGA

 

130214/0300Z  63  02004KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   55|  0| 45

130214/0400Z  64  04007KT  32.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    7:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  04010KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074    7:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  03011KT  31.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073    8:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  01011KT  30.8F  SNOW   15:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   11:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02012KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148   11:1|  5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  01012KT  30.6F  SNOW   17:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158   13:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  35012KT  30.6F  SNOW   22:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131   15:1| 10.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  35011KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066   14:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0

130214/1200Z  72  35010KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   14:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0

 

KJFK

 

130214/0300Z  63  03005KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

130214/0400Z  64  04009KT  32.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  04011KT  31.7F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    6:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  03013KT  31.5F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107    9:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  01014KT  31.0F  SNOW   13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   10:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  01015KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.136   11:1|  4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  01015KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.155   13:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  36014KT  30.6F  SNOW   24:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138   15:1| 10.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  35013KT  30.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089   14:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0

130214/1200Z  72  35012KT  31.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   14:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0

 

 

 

12z NAM bufkit totals

 

KMMU

 

130214/0300Z  63  07005KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

130214/0400Z  64  05007KT  31.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060    7:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  04010KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061    8:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  03008KT  30.6F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100    9:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  02009KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.182   11:1|  4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02010KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174   13:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  36010KT  30.5F  SNOW   20:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.134   14:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  36010KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063   14:1| 10.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  36009KT  31.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   14:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0

 

KHPN

 

130214/0400Z  64  06006KT  31.5F  SNOW   16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   16:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  05008KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092   10:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  04011KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066    9:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  02009KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111   11:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02010KT  30.5F  SNOW   16:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.162   13:1|  5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  01011KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172   14:1|  8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  35011KT  30.6F  SNOW   18:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135   15:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  35011KT  31.0F  SNOW   20:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069   15:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82  100|  0|  0

130214/1200Z  72  35010KT  31.7F  SNOW   21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   15:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0

 

KSWF

 

130214/0400Z  64  VRB02KT  31.0F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   15:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  07004KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050   13:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  05006KT  30.1F  SNOW   17:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   16:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  02006KT  29.9F  SNOW    9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080   14:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02006KT  29.7F  SNOW   12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144   13:1|  4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  01006KT  29.7F  SNOW   14:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160   13:1|  7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  35007KT  29.7F  SNOW    4:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   12:1|  7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  36006KT  29.9F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   12:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60  100|  0|  0

 

KLGA

 

130214/0300Z  63  02004KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   55|  0| 45

130214/0400Z  64  04007KT  32.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    7:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  04010KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074    7:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  03011KT  31.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073    8:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  01011KT  30.8F  SNOW   15:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   11:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02012KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148   11:1|  5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  01012KT  30.6F  SNOW   17:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158   13:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  35012KT  30.6F  SNOW   22:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131   15:1| 10.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  35011KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066   14:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0

130214/1200Z  72  35010KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   14:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0

 

KJFK

 

130214/0300Z  63  03005KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

130214/0400Z  64  04009KT  32.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  04011KT  31.7F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    6:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  03013KT  31.5F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107    9:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  01014KT  31.0F  SNOW   13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   10:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  01015KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.136   11:1|  4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  01015KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.155   13:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  36014KT  30.6F  SNOW   24:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138   15:1| 10.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  35013KT  30.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089   14:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0

130214/1200Z  72  35012KT  31.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   14:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0

 

off the hook numbers at JFK...24:1 ratios...ok

[Kaner587]

wow ggem is very wet for our area, almost exactly like the nam, maybe even slightly wetter for southern areas

[Dsnowx53]

a bit off topic - did you notice the nogaps for the 2nd storm..woooha

 

 

I did! That 500mb pattern is insane. I love the look. 

[bluewave]

Eh, I would buy into this more if it was well farther south. It seems to be generally on track with the NAM through 60 hours (we can't see the 4km graphics past that on ewall)..maybe just a hair south.

 

It's further SE than the NAM with a consolidated low near ORF instead of back across the interior like the regular NAM. In any

case, it's performance vs the regular NAM has been better within 60 IMHO. 

 

 

 

 

 

[ace0927]

I did! That 500mb pattern is insane. I love the look. 

 

 

I did! That 500mb pattern is insane. I love the look. 

the UKMET is even better - nearly perfect at hr120

 

[SnoSki14]

Let's keep the discussion about the other storm in the other thread. I know what the models show is exciting but thankfully we have more than one possible snow event to deal with and I'll go back and forth with them. 

[earthlight]

It's further SE than the NAM with a consolidated low near ORF instead of back across the interior like the regular NAM. In any

case, it's performance vs the regular NAM has been better within 60 IMHO. 

 

cld60.gif

 

Might be a little faster, too..the NAM gets it there just a few hours later (between 63-66). But yeah, I agree that it has been pretty good inside 60. But it's also prone to some wild solutions and was in agreement with the NAM when the NAM was showing the 4" QPF amounts over Northern NJ with the last storm.

[L.I.Pete]

12z NAM bufkit totals

 

KMMU

 

130214/0300Z  63  07005KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0

130214/0400Z  64  05007KT  31.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060    7:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0

130214/0500Z  65  04010KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061    8:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0

130214/0600Z  66  03008KT  30.6F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100    9:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130214/0700Z  67  02009KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.182   11:1|  4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0

130214/0800Z  68  02010KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174   13:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0

130214/0900Z  69  36010KT  30.5F  SNOW   20:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.134   14:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0

130214/1000Z  70  36010KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063   14:1| 10.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0

130214/1100Z  71  36009KT  31.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   14:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0

 

KISP?

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Might be a little faster, too..the NAM gets it there just a few hours later (between 63-66). But yeah, I agree that it has been pretty good inside 60. But it's also prone to some wild solutions and was in agreement with the NAM when the NAM was showing the 4" QPF amounts over Northern NJ with the last storm.

8-9" of QPF for coastal NJ on the hi res NAM the day before the blizzard.

[allgame830]

Euro out yet?

[Kaner587]

Euro out yet?

out to 30...a little more amped, heights ahead of the storm in the SE area are slightly higher.

[Allsnow]

Euro out yet?

Out to hr 30. Looks more amp up to me already

[Weathergun]

It's further SE than the NAM with a consolidated low near ORF instead of back across the interior like the regular NAM. In any

case, it's performance vs the regular NAM has been better within 60 IMHO. 

 

cld60.gif

 

 

It useless to compare now. We don't know what it'll will do beyond 60hr.

[Dsnowx53]

The Euro looks significantly more amped through 36 hours compared to 48 hour on the 00z run. 

[Kaner587]

definitely more amped at 36

[Allsnow]

The Euro looks significantly more amped through 36 hours compared to 48 hour on the 00z run.

Agree. This is coming further north.

[earthlight]

The Euro definitely has higher h5 heights ahead of the shortwave through 36 hours...would really surprise me if this didn't come north at this point.

[RU848789]

Inside 72 hours if the Euro is on its own I have much less tendency to buy it than I do at Day 4 or 5.

 

 

Also agree, for the 12/20 Midwest blizzard, the Euro was too far south until I think 2 days before the event when the 12z run came in line with the rest of the guidance. The GFS actually performed much better with that particular event. The Euro is a great model as shown by the last storm, but it's not infallible. Doesn't mean that's the case here, but it should still be a flag that it's now the only model showing the more southern solution.

Wasn't the Euro just about by itself 60 hours out, i.e., late on Tuesday of last week?  Perhaps I'm misremembering the timing or it being alone, but on the surface, at least, it seems a little self-serving for people to believe the Euro when it's alone showing snow, but to not believe the Euro when it's alone and not showing snow.  Apologies if I'm missing something here...

[Kaner587]

at 42 sub 1008 low over central mississippi...at 00z this was weaker and slightly further SE and strung out

[Dsnowx53]

I have never seen the Euro change so much from run to run with a shortwave with only 36 hours of lead time. 

[Stormlover74]

Wasn't the Euro just about by itself 60 hours out, i.e., late on Tuesday of last week?  Perhaps I'm misremembering the timing or it being alone, but on the surface, at least, it seems a little self-serving for people to believe the Euro when it's alone showing snow, but to not believe the Euro when it's alone and not showing snow.  Apologies if I'm missing something here...

It wasn't by itself, it just didn't agree with what the NAM/GFS were showing. This time around the NAM/GFS have support from most other models aside from the Euro

[earthlight]

Through 60 hours its well more amplified on the East Coast compared to 00z...pretty big jump by the Euro

[Allsnow]

Hr 48 850 and surface south of mason Dixon line

[earthlight]

I have never seen the Euro change so much from run to run with a shortwave with only 36 hours of lead time. 

 

Happens every once and a while. Not often, but it happens.

[earthlight]

Surface low is 1000mb or so at 54 hours over Northeast NC

[SR Airglow]

EURO is going to be nice, looks like it's going to cave to everything else.

-skisheep