February 13-14th Potential Winter Storm Threat Discussion

[Zelocita Weather]

^{That primary better die damn quick on the GEM...}

[SR Airglow]

So it's basically everything except EURO advisory snow+, EURO nothing/flurries. If the EURO does not come north, i'd be skeptical of it, not tossing it, but inclined to discount it.

-skisheep

[TWCCraig]

Mod to heavy snow for NYC south

 

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

ggem is a huge hit! Woof.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Okay. I think the GFS may have the right idea, but I think that there will be a 30-40 mile adjustment north, maybe even 50 miles further north. Although I do think the NAM will adjust about 10-20 miles south over time. In other words, there's a chance for even a high-end snow warning level.

[Zir0b]

 

12z ggem says game on...997 low of the delmarva, this actually looks slightly more amped than the NAM 

[Kaner587]

Yup very nam-ish. Sound the alarms Vday SECS? Only need the euro to bite then I'm all in lol

[Dsnowx53]

WOW. It's one thing to have the NAM, GFS, and Ukie north of the Euro, but the GGEM, too? 

 

[SnoSki14]

Only a little more than 2 days away, these runs are nice but I know it's not a lock until the Euro says it is.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Well...It's getting pretty obvious that the ECMWF is gonna trend north when everyone else is doing this within 72 hours.

[Kaner587]

Wonder what precip maps look like. Would think 0.5+ area wide more south

[Dsnowx53]

Even the NOGAPS is well NW of the Euro now. I think it's only a matter of time. 

[SR Airglow]

Only a little more than 2 days away, these runs are nice but I know it's not a lock until the Euro says it is.

The EURO, aside from large events(Sandy and the recent blizzard), has not been perfect, and it's hard to bet against everything else at this point, when it's one vs all, you tend to take the all.

-skisheep

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Even the NOGAPS is well NW of the Euro now. I think it's only a matter of time. 

 

Yup. Definitely. It's gonna cave. This seems very certain.

[SnowGoose69]

The EURO, aside from large events(Sandy and the recent blizzard), has not been perfect, and it's hard to bet against everything else at this point, when it's one vs all, you tend to take the all.

-skisheep

 

Inside 72 hours if the Euro is on its own I have much less tendency to buy it than I do at Day 4 or 5.

[wolfsheepsheadbay]

Inside 72 hours if the Euro is on its own I have much less tendency to buy it than I do at Day 4 or 5.

Yup, agreed.

[PB GFI]

The Euro should come north at 12z . I wouldnt be too worried , the reason you look at various models is to get a consensus , and there`s plenty there if you had to make a forecast to bite on .The 0z Euro ensembles came north as it was , so I am hopeful the operational it joins the party .

[SR Airglow]

Inside 72 hours if the Euro is on its own I have much less tendency to buy it than I do at Day 4 or 5.

Yup, with even the NOGAPS north it's hard to not toss the EURO if it dosen't come north.

-skisheep

[mikemurph44]

If the euro does not get on board with the other models at 12z, and is still south, it will be real interesting tonight at 0z to say the least, do the other models change and fall in line with the euro at the last minute and it scores a coup? Or does the euro change and it has been wrong all along? The euro has been insistant that this is nothing more than flurries and a miss south, every run for days now

[RCNYILWX]

Inside 72 hours if the Euro is on its own I have much less tendency to buy it than I do at Day 4 or 5.

Also agree, for the 12/20 Midwest blizzard, the Euro was too far south until I think 2 days before the event when the 12z run came in line with the rest of the guidance. The GFS actually performed much better with that particular event. The Euro is a great model as shown by the last storm, but it's not infallible. Doesn't mean that's the case here, but it should still be a flag that it's now the only model showing the more southern solution.

[Kaner587]

If the euro does not get on board with the other models at 12z, and is still south, it will be real interesting tonight at 0z to say the least, do the other models change and fall in line with the euro at the last minute and it scores a coup? Or does the euro change and it has been wrong all along? The euro has been insistant that this is nothing more than flurries and a miss south, every run for days now

its done that before. Its not a flawless model. It should correct north again at 12z as it did 00z.

[bluewave]

The 4km which did better than the GFS and regular NAM with the blizzard is a little further

south with the main precip shield than the GFS. So maybe the Euro comes a little more

north today, but not as wet as the GFS? I can remember the 4km runs doing better even

further out when the NAM had the OTS solutions on a few runs. In any event, it's good

to track the 4km runs vs the regular NAM to see how good it is in different situations.

 

 

[MJO812]

^^^^

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer&param=sim_reflectivity&cycle=12ℑ=nam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif

[Zir0b]

12z GFS ensembles pretty much in agreement with the operational 

[leemhoc]

what time does euro come out??

[Dsnowx53]

what time does euro come out??

 

 

It starts at 12:45. We'll know what it does for this storm at around 1:00 or so. 

[mikemurph44]

its done that before. Its not a flawless model. It should correct north again at 12z as it did 00z.

if the new euro still shows nada here an hour from now, I will be worried, I remember what happened last thursday night when the euro stuck to its guns, it was on its own and all the other 0z model runs had folks on here ready to jump. Then after the euro came out everyone was rejoicing and the next day all of the other models flipped. I don't like to throw out the euro, makes me nervous

[IsentropicLift]

12z NAM bufkit totals

 

KMMU

 

130214/0300Z  63  07005KT  31.9F  SNOW    8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    8:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
130214/0400Z  64  05007KT  31.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060    7:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
130214/0500Z  65  04010KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061    8:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
130214/0600Z  66  03008KT  30.6F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100    9:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130214/0700Z  67  02009KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.182   11:1|  4.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42  100|  0|  0
130214/0800Z  68  02010KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174   13:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0
130214/0900Z  69  36010KT  30.5F  SNOW   20:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.134   14:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0
130214/1000Z  70  36010KT  30.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063   14:1| 10.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0
130214/1100Z  71  36009KT  31.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   14:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0
 

KHPN
 

130214/0400Z  64  06006KT  31.5F  SNOW   16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   16:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
130214/0500Z  65  05008KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.092   10:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
130214/0600Z  66  04011KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066    9:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130214/0700Z  67  02009KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111   11:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28  100|  0|  0
130214/0800Z  68  02010KT  30.5F  SNOW   16:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.162   13:1|  5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
130214/0900Z  69  01011KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172   14:1|  8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62  100|  0|  0
130214/1000Z  70  35011KT  30.6F  SNOW   18:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135   15:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75  100|  0|  0
130214/1100Z  71  35011KT  31.0F  SNOW   20:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069   15:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82  100|  0|  0
130214/1200Z  72  35010KT  31.7F  SNOW   21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   15:1| 12.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0
 

KSWF

 

130214/0400Z  64  VRB02KT  31.0F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004   15:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0
130214/0500Z  65  07004KT  30.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050   13:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
130214/0600Z  66  05006KT  30.1F  SNOW   17:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   16:1|  2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130214/0700Z  67  02006KT  29.9F  SNOW    9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080   14:1|  3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
130214/0800Z  68  02006KT  29.7F  SNOW   12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144   13:1|  4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37  100|  0|  0
130214/0900Z  69  01006KT  29.7F  SNOW   14:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.160   13:1|  7.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53  100|  0|  0
130214/1000Z  70  35007KT  29.7F  SNOW    4:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   12:1|  7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0
130214/1100Z  71  36006KT  29.9F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   12:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60  100|  0|  0
 

KLGA

 

130214/0300Z  63  02004KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00   55|  0| 45
130214/0400Z  64  04007KT  32.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    7:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
130214/0500Z  65  04010KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074    7:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
130214/0600Z  66  03011KT  31.2F  SNOW   11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073    8:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130214/0700Z  67  01011KT  30.8F  SNOW   15:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.102   11:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0
130214/0800Z  68  02012KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148   11:1|  5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
130214/0900Z  69  01012KT  30.6F  SNOW   17:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158   13:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0
130214/1000Z  70  35012KT  30.6F  SNOW   22:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131   15:1| 10.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0
130214/1100Z  71  35011KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066   14:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0
130214/1200Z  72  35010KT  31.7F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   14:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80  100|  0|  0
 

KJFK

 

130214/0300Z  63  03005KT  34.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130214/0400Z  64  04009KT  32.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
130214/0500Z  65  04011KT  31.7F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    6:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
130214/0600Z  66  03013KT  31.5F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107    9:1|  1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130214/0700Z  67  01014KT  31.0F  SNOW   13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   10:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30  100|  0|  0
130214/0800Z  68  01015KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.136   11:1|  4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
130214/0900Z  69  01015KT  30.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.155   13:1|  7.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0
130214/1000Z  70  36014KT  30.6F  SNOW   24:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138   15:1| 10.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73  100|  0|  0
130214/1100Z  71  35013KT  30.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089   14:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0
130214/1200Z  72  35012KT  31.5F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   14:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83  100|  0|  0
 

[Zir0b]

ggem in more detail

 

[earthlight]

The 4km which did better than the GFS and regular NAM with the blizzard is a little further

south with the main precip shield than the GFS. So maybe the Euro comes a little more

north today, but not as wet as the GFS? I can remember the 4km runs doing better even

further out when the NAM had the OTS solutions on a few runs. In any event, it's good

to track the 4km runs vs the regular NAM to see how good it is in different situations.

 

Eh, I would buy into this more if it was well farther south. It seems to be generally on track with the NAM through 60 hours (we can't see the 4km graphics past that on ewall)..maybe just a hair south.