MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS has a 993 low on the benchmark. Snowstorm for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS on board. Nice storm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Does the Ukie now show a hit or just improved over 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS has a 993 low on the benchmark. Snowstorm for the coast. booyah - Euro you're next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z GFS has a 993 low on the benchmark. Snowstorm for the coast. Total precip do you have map? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Does the Ukie now show a hit or just improved over 0z? It's not like the GFS or Nam but it went north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What kind of QPF are we talking here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Total precip do you have map? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS 3-6" for N NJ/NYC/LI....precip shield further south than NAM, but still something. Both models are far as overall look/low position/precip are remarkably close for this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 good position for the GFS 72 hrs out considering its tendency to somewhat underestimate the strength of southern stream shortwaves in this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 folks. here is the total for the 2/14 event. prior maps included all precip through 72 hours (including what is falling now as rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 folks. here is the total for the 2/14 event. prior maps included all precip through 72 hours (including what is falling now as rain). ok 4 to 6 for western monmouth good news Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Timing of this event is not exactly ideal right now perhaps arriving late afternoon with marginal temps, really are gonna need a CCB to make this one really worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 from ORH_wxman in the SNE subforum wrt 12z UKMET... Ukie is also a scraper...looked a shade juicier, def adivsory snow from the pike south...maybe even low end warning lollis. Sounds like a good hit for this region given it reaches SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Timing of this event is not exactly ideal right now perhaps arriving late afternoon with marginal temps, really are gonna need a CCB to make this one really worthy. The highest temp NYC sees is 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 To avoid confusion, I hid the posts that showed the total QPF through 72 hours that included today's rain, and posts that related to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Advisory and .25+ for all, nice shift back from 6z. Something like this seems a realistic option, not buying the NAM, but the trend cannot be ignored. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Timing of this event is not exactly ideal right now perhaps arriving late afternoon with marginal temps, really are gonna need a CCB to make this one really worthy. True but once dark we should accumulate. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wed event alone is .35 plus on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Timing of this event is not exactly ideal right now perhaps arriving late afternoon with marginal temps, really are gonna need a CCB to make this one really worthy. nighttime will help-no sun angle worries.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Strongly disagree. The Euro has been following the leader with this storm, which has been the GFS. Given the synoptic features in place -- 50/50 low, large mid level ridge on the west coast, PV positioned NW of Hudson's Bay, the pattern favors higher heights off the east coast and more amplification of the sern stream wave IMO. The SREFS are unreliable beyond the short range and really shouldn't be utilized as a clue to what the NAM may do in the future. Additionally, this storm should be a moderate to possibly significant snow for someone on the east coast IMO, and that potential does extend into the PHL/NYC metro areas. If the Euro come on board you will be correct. But we have seen the NAM and GFS performance outside 60 hrs can't be trusted for winter storms recently. The Euro may come north still but it would probably result in a compromise between the GFS and UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That was 2010 I believe. It insisted on a very sharp NW cutoff that none of the other models were really showing. I went to bed with a WSW for 4-8" and woke up at 3 AM to a purely virga storm as the cut off was about I-80. I got nothing, not even a single flake. No. This isn't 2010. The NAM was alone, in consistently showing a big hit for everyone and it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS 700mb map shows that precip will be much further NW than what is shown at the surface. This is a 6-10" snowstorm in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 True but once dark we should accumulate. Rossi with snow cover already on the ground - will accumulate right away - except for pavement which will take a while to cool down - last time we had snowfall on top of snow cover was January 2011 - doesn't happen around NYC metro very often and there is a chance of more snow on top of everything this weekend if that storm comes our way.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If the Euro come on board you will be correct. But we have seen the NAM and GFS performance outside 60 hrs can't be trusted for winter storms recently. The Euro may come north still but it would probably result in a compromise between the GFS and UKMET. kind of dangerous to say the Euro will lead the way every storm ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 nighttime will help-no sun angle worries.... are we talking wed night for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well alright then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well alright then..... I'd be shocked if Euro doesn't bump north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ggem GFS nam ukie rgem on board. Euro? Better get its act straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 are we talking wed night for this storm? Yes late Wednesday night (1am thurs morning) probably into midday thurs maybe 10-11am. Quick hitter could drop 0.5-1in/hr rates though for the duration if the nam/GFS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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