IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The 00z Euro Ensembles were well NW of the 12z Euro Ensembles. They actually graze us. Considering how the Southern Stream has a faster speed during La Nina's or La Nina-like patterns, there's a chance that it won't get sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nice Nam run! Good trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Go back a week - where was the NAM 66 hours out on the BLIZZARD ? Wait for the consensus before throwing amounts out . We all love that solution . However its not the suite you need to worry about - its the range you have to look at . IMO its best to be cautious , thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The 12Z RGEM does not look a whole lot different than the NAM does at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Some of the runs in there were 50-100 miles too far west with what happened from central LI into CT. Past 48 hrs the SREF's are telling you that the Nam will come south in the next few days. Maybe the coating to 2inch tries to push up into our area if the Euro comes a little more north. f69.gif Right and that was the day before not 60 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Not that i think its 100% right. But, the NAM has been very consistent so far with this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Some of the runs in there were 50-100 miles too far west with what happened from central LI into CT. Past 48 hrs the SREF's are telling you that the Nam will come south in the next few days. Maybe the coating to 2inch tries to push up into our area if the Euro comes a little more north. More than half of the SREF members do show hits for us in the end. Some of them pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Some of the runs in there were 50-100 miles too far west with what happened from central LI into CT. Past 48 hrs the SREF's are telling you that the Nam will come south in the next few days. Maybe the coating to 2inch tries to push up into our area if the Euro comes a little more north. f69.gif So you're using the long range SREF's to justify your argument, not the brightest move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The NAM may b right in the end . And if it snow the GFS caught this first and would smoked the Euro . All I am saying is i wana see consensus RGEM . SREF ( inside 48 hrs ) and either the GFS or Euro .So im sure we get a clearer pic by 130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There was one snowstorm/blizzard years ago, that the NAM showed big snowstorm for us from 84hrs out. And never folded to the other models. I don't remember which storm that was though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 The 12Z RGEM does not look a whole lot different than the NAM does at 48 hours. Looks very similar indeed with both the s/w position and surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 careful with the NAM amounts....I would focus on the GFS and Euro with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 careful with the NAM amounts....I would focus on the GFS and Euro with this one Or the guy from news 12 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's not running yet Sorry that was a prediction. ;o) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There was one snowstorm/blizzard years ago, that the NAM showed big snowstorm for us from 84hrs out. And never folded to the other models. I don't remember which storm that was though. I remember that well. I think it was back in Feb 2010. NAM held and didnt move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the NAM is going to cave. Since its domain is restricted to the North America, disturbances outside the domain that become part of the domain later in the run are probably not handled very well if I had to guess. Take for instance hr 66 on the 12z NAM. If you look up near the Aleutians, you'll see a very potent shortwave that has just entered the picture and is likely leading to a more amplified trough-ridge system in the CONUS. The GFS on the other hand has a much weaker vort which is leading to a less amplified trough downstream. Maybe the NAM has the better handle on that feature but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The mean is south of the OP NAM at this range so that's telling you the the NAM is too amped. But a lot of members are nice hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The mean is south of the OP NAM at this range so that's telling you the the NAM is too amped. There's a major spread amungst the members and they come in at different times. Don't think it's the right idea to use the mean when the storm is at different positions at different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Some of the runs in there were 50-100 miles too far west with what happened from central LI into CT. Past 48 hrs the SREF's are telling you that the Nam will come south in the next few days. Maybe the coating to 2inch tries to push up into our area if the Euro comes a little more north. f69.gif Strongly disagree. The Euro has been following the leader with this storm, which has been the GFS. Given the synoptic features in place -- 50/50 low, large mid level ridge on the west coast, PV positioned NW of Hudson's Bay, the pattern favors higher heights off the east coast and more amplification of the sern stream wave IMO. The SREFS are unreliable beyond the short range and really shouldn't be utilized as a clue to what the NAM may do in the future. Additionally, this storm should be a moderate to possibly significant snow for someone on the east coast IMO, and that potential does extend into the PHL/NYC metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS is more amped through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There was one snowstorm/blizzard years ago, that the NAM showed big snowstorm for us from 84hrs out. And never folded to the other models. I don't remember which storm that was though. Are you trying to help or hurt its case? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There was one snowstorm/blizzard years ago, that the NAM showed big snowstorm for us from 84hrs out. And never folded to the other models. I don't remember which storm that was though. That was 2010 I believe. It insisted on a very sharp NW cutoff that none of the other models were really showing. I went to bed with a WSW for 4-8" and woke up at 3 AM to a purely virga storm as the cut off was about I-80. I got nothing, not even a single flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I wouldn't go by that. I wouldn't be using the SREF mean at 72 hrs either. When you have as large a spread as what they currently show, the mean is sort of useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It looks as if there's a decent chance this storm will have some Gulf convection. That should help this storm come in a bit further north. Also, I don't really see any major features at 500mb that scream suppression, other than that potential kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hr 51 low coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukie is north from the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Strongly disagree. The Euro has been following the leader with this storm, which has been the GFS. Given the synoptic features in place -- 50/50 low, large mid level ridge on the west coast, PV positioned NW of Hudson's Bay, the pattern favors higher heights off the east coast and more amplification of the sern stream wave IMO. The SREFS are unreliable beyond the short range and really shouldn't be utilized as a clue to what the NAM may do in the future. Additionally, this storm should be a moderate to possibly significant snow for someone on the east coast IMO, and that potential does extend into the PHL/NYC metro areas. I agree. The Euro is allowed to be wrong once in a while. The synoptic pattern definitely favors some amplification. Of course, it's possible that we only get grazed, but the 00z Euro ensembles making a huge jump north from the 12z Euro ensembles shows me that the Euro is still catching up regarding holding back too much energy in the southwest. And besides a potential kicker, there is really nothing that can suppress this storm. It's all up to the southern stream to amplify, and considering the likelihood for some Gulf convection, I say there's a decent chance this comes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It looks as if there's a decent chance this storm will have some Gulf convection. That should help this storm come in a bit further north. Also, I don't really see any major features at 500mb that scream suppression, other than that potential kicker. Agree, there's no strong PV (or any PV for that latter) in southern Canada which would suppress heights. The upstream ridge near the West Coast will also allow the sern vort to pump heights a bit more in the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Moderate snow at hour 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It looks as if there's a decent chance this storm will have some Gulf convection. That should help this storm come in a bit further north. Also, I don't really see any major features at 500mb that scream suppression, other than that potential kicker. I agree-I still think there's a half decent chance it can make it up here. If it wasn't for the kicker, I'd say it's very likely. So long as the S/W sharpens as it approaches and doesn't shear out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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