SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The NAM just won't give up! Not buying what it's selling, but starting to think 2-4" advisory snow a decent possibility. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12z NAM is a really nice hit, especially for New Jersey. Quick hitting 8-12 hour storm. Would likely be 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The NAM just won't give up! Not buying what it's selling, but starting to think 2-4" advisory snow a decent possibility. -skisheep If it still shows this by Wednesday Morning, along with the GFS and ECMWF, then this will surely happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now we need other models, particularly the Euro, to continue the trend from last night. The NAM by itself isn't reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now we need other models, particularly the Euro, to continue the trend from last night. The NAM by itself isn't reliable. Definitely. Even if we don't have any consistency from the UKMET and the GGEM , then the WRF/SREF/RGEM will tell the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If it still shows this by Wednesday Morning, along with the GFS and ECMWF, then this will surely happen. But right now neither the GFS or the ECMWF have anything besides flurries here, GFS has been trying, but the EURO not moving. I think it comes north, but not for warning snow level. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now we need other models, particularly the Euro, to continue the trend from last night. The NAM by itself isn't reliable. All the models went north at 0z. Even the euro did but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I didn't buy the 6z GFS because it's the 6z. If you take the 0z GFS, 12z NAM, and all the other models that now trended, the NAM might be catching on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I know we bash the nam especially this year as being all over the place and lost on each storm, but for whatever reason it has had a pretty similar solution for several days. Like Ace said it is relentless with this solution. I know we are waiting for it to completely lose the storm so we can laugh at it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 66 Sexy look there - NAM scoring a coup this week? ;o) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hi-Res Nam at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can see the NAM suffering from the same feedback problems which had it dumping the heaviest precip too far west with the blizzard last week. We can remember some of runs that had the heaviest precip back toward nyc instead of LI and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can see the NAM suffering from the same feedback problems which had it dumping the heaviest precip too far west with the blizzard last week. We can remember some of runs that had the heaviest precip back toward nyc instead of LI and CT. Yeah, I figured that would be a problem for this event. There's a chance for Low-End Warning level for NYC, but high-end Warning level is unlikely ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The northern stream partially phased on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The NAM is a little north for my liking , until I see the GFS and Euro come too it , It`s in it`s 66 hour range and even though it shows a solution I would love - I am not on board The model scares me at this range . The GFS and Euro are where I live at this range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can see the NAM suffering from the same feedback problems which had it dumping the heaviest precip too far west with the blizzard last week. We can remember some of runs that had the heaviest precip back toward nyc instead of LI and CT. The NAM runs that showed the heaviest precip over NJ only missed by about 20-30 miles. That's not bad at all. I got 15" in Pompton Plains. May not be the 30-40" that some places got but it came down very hard and heavy from about 9pm-2am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The 00z Euro Ensembles were well NW of the 12z Euro Ensembles. They actually graze us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can see the NAM suffering from the same feedback problems which had it dumping the heaviest precip too far west with the blizzard last week. We can remember some of runs that had the heaviest precip back toward nyc instead of LI and CT. Yup, as much as I want to see it, it is the NAM after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The NAM is a little north for my liking , until I see the GFS and Euro come too it , It`s in it`s 66 hour range and even though it shows a solution I would love - I am not on board The model scares me at this range . The GFS and Euro are where I live at this range . Lets remember this was the same model that was out to lunch in this range for Friday's storm. It's encouraging it does have some support from a few other models but at this point without the Euro on board I'm just not buying it. And yes I know it trended north but I want it fully on board. When was the last time the Euro wasn't showing a hit for something within 72 hours and we actually got something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The northern stream partially phased on this run. I dont see that it phased at all. I could be wrong though. Where do you see a partial phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The NAM runs that showed the heaviest precip over NJ only missed by about 20-30 miles. That's not bad at all. I got 15" in Pompton Plains. May not be the 30-40" that some places got but it came down very hard and heavy from about 9pm-2am. Ya I was gonna say this missed by about 50 miles. If the true solution is 50 miles se of the 12z nam we still all get at least advisory level snows and most get low end warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The northern stream partially phased on this run. Yeah, it slightly phases. Just slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the 12z GFS looks more like 00z then 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The 00z Euro Ensembles were well NW of the 12z Euro Ensembles. They actually graze us. Hmmmm, thats good to know. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Like storm at sea always says ... the nam is usually too far north west. If thats true which it probably is.. Then it probably falls inline with the GFS and UK. It is a 1-3 /2-4 inch event or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the 12z GFS looks more like 00z then 6z. It's not running yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I didn't buy the 6z GFS because it's the 6z. If you take the 0z GFS, 12z NAM, and all the other models that now trended, the NAM might be catching on to something. the 6z gfs is just as accurate as any other run. the fact is you are relying on short range models out of range,while the euro and gfs are a scraping blow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the 12z GFS looks more like 00z then 6z. The GFS doesnt start running for at least 15 to 20 more mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Like storm at sea always says ... the nam is usually too far north west. If thats true which it probably is.. Then it probably falls inline with the GFS and UK. It is a 1-3 /2-4 inch event or so. He was also calling bust for the last storm before the heaviest banding got here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think one of the more important factors is going to be the strength of the s/w...6z GFS had a very similar vortmax track vs the 0z GFS but the s/w was weaker on the 6z GFS which in turn made the low come further southeast with less precip. Given the tendency for southern stream shortwaves to be a bit stronger than modeled, I'd keep an eye on this even if the the rest of the 12z suite does not look like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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