allgame830 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 WOW!!!! NAM looks sweet heavy pecip at 75 hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big hit on the NAM, colder as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We are getting good consistency from the NAM, this is going to be a nice storm for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yea looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 06z GFS not as enthused with the energy through 54hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 More seperation between the northern and southern stream, weaker vort pops a low weaker and more east on this run, only about .10-.25 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 More seperation between the northern and southern stream, weaker vort pops a low weaker and more east on this run, only about .10-.25 qpf Yeah, definitely a large step back from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, definitely a large step back from 0z. Eh, minor deal. 6z and 18z yesterday were both suppressed. 0z and 12z, both amped. The only thing that changes with this GFS run is that we've gotten closer to a consensus. That being said, since the Ukie, GGEM and Euro jumped hundreds of miles at 0z, I don't think we can 'really' call anything a trend toward consensus yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Just saw the 0zs. If it snows or mixes wed nite the gfs wins here. It had ths 160hrs out and never waivered The nam at 84 locked on too. So thats more impressive to me Its starting to be apparent that we at least snow or mix . The euro was too flat for too long. Big jump last nite by the euro so it sees the more northerm solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Eh, minor deal. 6z and 18z yesterday were both suppressed. 0z and 12z, both amped. The only thing that changes with this GFS run is that we've gotten closer to a consensus. That being said, since the Ukie, GGEM and Euro jumped hundreds of miles at 0z, I don't think we can 'really' call anything a trend toward consensus yet. Just commenting on the run, big difference from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If we do get this storm is it going to be pure snow? Surface temps look kind of warm atleast from what im seeing on t v.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That was a large step in the right direction and by the way, at 72 hrs, the JMA looks fantastic. How does the Euro control run and its ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Look at Sunday....GFS has a MASSIVE storm back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How does the Euro control run and its ensembles look? Same as operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the NAM is the only one showing a BIG hit actually. Having the NAM as the only one that shows something like that is like having that friend who talks of knowing and doing many impressive things and agreeing with him just so you don't hurt their feelings when you know that they are lying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 HPC: ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIG SWD DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR MIDWEST/GRT LAKES SYS...WITH THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A WELL-DEFINED UPR TROF AND CLSD LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS ON MON. THE ENERGY SHOULD THEREAFTER ADVANCE EAST OUT ACROSS THE S CNTRL PLAINS AND PROGRESSIVELY EAST TO THE LWR OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TUES INTO WED. THE HT FALLS SHOULD DRIVE DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE LATE TUES/WED ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THEN LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST AND THE SRN MID-ATLANTIC LATE WED INTO EARLY THURS. THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG OUTLIER WITH THE HT FALLS...ESP AS THE ENERGY TRAVERSES THE LWR MS/TN AND OH VLYS. ITS SFC LOW CENTER IS NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MDL CONSENSUS...CONSISTING OF THE 00Z GFS...00Z ECMWF...00Z UKMET AND THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL SOLNS. THE NAM HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS SFC LOW TRACK. LIKEWISE...THE GFS/UKMET/GEM GLOBAL AND ECMWF SOLNS HAVE ALSO TRENDED FARTHER NORTH AND ARE ALSO A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE NWD TREND IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE AND LENDS STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE 00Z GFS. GIVEN THE TRENDS FROM THE 00Z GUIDANCE TO BE FARTHER NORTH...AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST GEFS MEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET BLEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Mt. Holly THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THESOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PASSING OFF THE MIDDLEATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TOOVERSPREAD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE ONSET,BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT RAIN IN ALLBUT OUR FAR NORTH. DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, COLD AIRSHOULD BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION ON A NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDCAUSING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IFPRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONALCOOLING FROM ALOFT IS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, FORECASTING THECHANGE-OVER TIMES AND AMOUNTS REMAINS QUITE TRICKY AT THIS POINT.NEVERTHELESS, BASED ON THE SYSTEM`S EXPECTED TRACK AND TIMING, ITAPPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD RECEIVE OF SWATH OF A FEWINCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR REGION, PERHAPS FROM THEPHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND POINTSTO THE NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HPC Day 3 Winter Weather Discussion : ...DAY 3...WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY MORNING...TENNESSEE VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MAIN FEATURE HERE IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE NEARLY ALL TRENDEDNORTHWARD FROM EARLIER RUNS...WITH THE SHEARED SYSTEM FORECASTYESTERDAY NOW APPEARING TO HAVE MORE CHANCES FOR FURTHERDEVELOPMENT AS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT.AT ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM...THE 00Z NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVEBRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTOSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS ALSO TRENDEDNORTHWARD AND ALSO PRODUCES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT AS WELL AND ISALSO IN LINE WITH THE 00Z UKMET. WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS ALSOTRENDED NORTHWARD...ITS PRECIPITATION FIELD SEEMS ODDLYDISCONNECTED FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...KEEPINGPRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NW OF THE LOW ON THE LOW SIDE. WITH THETREND OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS TO BRING SNOW FARTHERNORTHWARD....INCLUDING THE 00Z GEFS/21Z SREFMEAN AND 12Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEANS...THE ECMWF MEANS REMAIN ON THE DRIEST SIDE ANDAPPEAR TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED THAN THE OTHER RUNS...BUTIT STILL HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD.AT PRESENT...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WITH WHERETHE AREA OF MOST SNOWFALL WILL SET UP...WHETHER IT MOVES TOWARDSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...OR REMAINS GENERALLY IN THE MID ATLANTICSTATES...AND EVEN WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OREVEN IF SOME AREAS AGAIN EXPERIENCE A RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION. ANINTERMEDIATE SOLUTION...IN BETWEEN THE EXTREMES OF THE NAM/ECMWFAND MORE LIKE THE 00Z GFS/UKMET DICTATED THE FINAL CHOICE FOR THEFORECAST EMPHASIZING A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF 4+ INCHSNOWS FROM MARYLAND/NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY CHANCES FOR GREATERTHAN 8 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am guessing that the .25 in precip line lands somewhere along the Jersey Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am guessing that the .25 in precip line lands somewhere along the Jersey Shore. and a good portion of that will be liquid down there - think the main problem with this system is not going to be how far north it gets - but how much rain and mixing is involved at the start till most change over to snow.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Even if areas start out as rain , Remember the surface is colder due to snow cover and if rates are what the NAM say they are goin to be the area will transition to Snow more rapidly . If its a lighter system . You may have a harder time making that transition closer to the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 9z SREFs much drier and less amped, closer to the Euro than NAM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Even if areas start out as rain , Remember the surface is colder due to snow cover and if rates are what the NAM say they are goin to be the area will transition to Snow more rapidly . If its a lighter system . You may have a harder time making that transition closer to the coast . If the NAM is right (unlikely) and there's actually a primary feature, there would likely be less snow than you would think because you would suddenly have to deal with mid level WAA and possible sleet/mix issues. One of the hopeful bonuses of this system is the lack of a primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 9z SREFs much drier and less amped, closer to the Euro than NAM/GFS 9z SREFs much drier and less amped, closer to the Euro than NAM/GFS not so surprising. The 0Z Euro's depicting is probably close to reality, especially now that the SREF's are agreeing with it... would love to see the Euro get on board with the Feb 17-19 storm...man did the GFS have a bomb (and a nice one on its heels). But until the Euro shows it, its just porntastic hyperbole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 not so surprising. The 0Z Euro's depicting is probably close to reality, especially now that the SREF's are agreeing with it... would love to see the Euro get on board with the Feb 17-19 storm...man did the GFS have a bomb (and a nice one on its heels). But until the Euro shows it, its just porntastic hyperbole... Euro doesn't have anything while the Euro ensemble mean has this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 11 of the 21 SREF members show hits for us, just at different timings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro doesn't have anything while the Euro ensemble mean has this. Euro doesn't have anything while the Euro ensemble mean has this. that is a 1004 low slightly east of the benchmark, that wouldnt be much of anything. Whether or not its *hinting* at something is a different story...but I wont buy it until the Euro op shows something. As see with the mid week system, ride the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 11 of the 21 SREF members show hits for us, just at different timings. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSUS_9z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 11 of the 21 SREF members show hits for us, just at different timings. 11 of the 21 SREF members show hits for us, just at different timings. yeah, they are kind of all over the place...they were yesterday as well (w/re to timing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 that is a 1004 low slightly east of the benchmark, that wouldnt be much of anything. Whether or not its *hinting* at something is a different story...but I wont buy it until the Euro op shows something. As see with the mid week system, ride the euro. While the Euro is not showing a snowstorm up here, it did trend northward significantly. If anything with the GFS and Euro each being consisent in showing their distinct solutions, an equal blend should have been taken, and it may end up like that -- a middle of the road solution between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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