WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is definitely a chance that there models have sent it too far north and we could end up with a DC snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 2/24/05 is the most snowy analog showing over on CIPS from the 12z runs, funny that alot of the top analogs had good track but were way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is definitely a chance that there models have sent it too far north and we could end up with a DC snowstorm It's a concern yes. Still think we would still get an advisory event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is definitely a chance that there models have sent it too far north and we could end up with a DC snowstorm It would be kind of funny if we got fringed by this to the south where as with the last time it was to the north, though I'm not complaining about the 8-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is definitely a chance that there models have sent it too far north and we could end up with a DC snowstorm It would be kind of funny if we got fringed by this to the south where as with the last time it was to the north, though I'm not complaining about the 8-9". Yep....as long as we don't have more of the wasted frigid air like in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z FIM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is some serious consensus building now and the threat is only 72 hours away. From a purely forecasting standpoint, I would be more afraid of this coming too far north then being suppressed and sheared out. I fully expect the Euro to trend North and more amped tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes. The SREF's have a NAMish feel to them. There is some serious consensus building now and the threat is only 72 hours away. From a purely forecasting standpoint, I would be more afraid of this coming too far north then being suppressed and sheared out. I fully expect the Euro to trend North and more amped tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is some serious consensus building now and the threat is only 72 hours away. From a purely forecasting standpoint, I would be more afraid of this coming too far north then being suppressed and sheared out. I fully expect the Euro to trend North and more amped tonight. you iverson from lwb? im weathernutz if you remember, haha. and yeah, i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you iverson from lwb? im weathernutz if you remember, haha. and yeah, i agree Hey, yes I am! I thought it was you from your pic. Glad to see you here brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro at 42 is more intense with the southern vort. This run will be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Better than 12z, but i don't think it's quite there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z Euro is north of the 12z run but still a miss. Good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z Euro is north of the 12z run but still a miss. Good trend. The euro should of seen it by now given the trends of the other models, not a good sign IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The euro should of seen it by now given the trends of the other models, not a good sign IMO. Euro is still playing to its bias of holding back the energy, the trend North has to be noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The euro should of seen it by now given the trends of the other models, not a good sign IMO. Euro could be late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 maybe it wasnt a "wrap" after all. that is why you cant make final decisions 4 days before the storm. this still looks like more of a mid atlantic storm to me, but things could change, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 maybe it wasnt a "wrap" after all. that is why you cant make final decisions 4 days before the storm. this still looks like more of a mid atlantic storm to me, but things could change, of course The Euro shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That was a large step in the right direction and by the way, at 72 hrs, the JMA looks fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 As Snow88 noted, Euro made a nice shift north and stronger with the vort, popping a 999 low right off NC coast. I dont think this is done trending whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I like a gradual shift north from the Euro, I wouldn't want it to shift way north and be too amped up, this gives us a lot of wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Saw on 11pm local news tonight they now have snow Wednesday night for NYC metro but they then say it turns to rain thurs with a high of 42... Im sure they will change it 100 times between now and then.. Just thought id mention it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Exactly. The Euro is right where you want her right now. Too big of a jump and you have to worry about the Euro showing a OH valley cutter. The Columbus to PIT to ROC is another classic storm track that we have yet to see this winter. I'm a bit nervous that the track might go even further north with future runs. I like a gradual shift north from the Euro, I wouldn't want it to shift way north and be too amped up, this gives us a lot of wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If you look at the GFS this has precipitation moving into the region late wednesday night.. This is not 4 days away..this is now about 72 hrs out which is 3 days away and to not have the best model at this time range in your camp...is not a very good sign. ECM is essentially unbeatable from 72 and under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If you look at the GFS this has precipitation moving into the region late wednesday night.. This is not 4 days away..this is now about 72 hrs out which is 3 days away and to not have the best model at this time range in your camp...is not a very good sign. ECM is essentially unbeatable from 72 and under unfortunately, the euro made too much of a shift at 500 from 12z to 00z for me to hug it. It def trended towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HPC is going with the GFS http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=3&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 New srefs look amped, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 06z NAM coming in even stronger through 36hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gonna be a beauty on the NAM, 500 closed off at 60 hours, moisture streaming from the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gorgeous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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