jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah that's a substantial north jump on the UKMET,,,if GGEM also comes jumps north I'd be the surprised, if Dr.No doesn't say Yes. The UKMET flops around all the time, and the GGEM had some weird double-low kind of structure for the last couple of runs. It would be good to have them I guess, but this is the timeframe I'd really want the Euro to start showing a hit for me to really be confident of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I just hope that there is snow still on the ground as this comes along I hate when we get a storm, washes it all away and then accumulates some more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro is the king in the 3-5 day range..DO NOT discount it!..Believe me, i wish the GFS is right,but it usually is wrong especially going up against the Euro..beware! It's a data thing, all the model runs have shown a northerward trend, the Euro will follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Through 54 hours the GEM looks notably north of 12Z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think all in all, the models basically ingest given data. Many times this is expressed wrongly. But as you get more models that begin to display the same information, then it becomes consensus. So many variables come into play with so many different setups that it is impossible really to say which models will handle that specific setup correctly. This might be an example of the euro ingesting this specific data set and displaying it wrong. But, as new data comes in it eventually will display it closer to what the outcome will be and eventually the models do in some way converge on a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think all in all, the models basically ingest given data. Many times this is expressed wrongly. But as you get more models that begin to display the same information, then it becomes consensus. So many variables come into play with so many different setups that it is impossible really to say which models will handle that specific setup correctly. This might be an example of the euro ingesting this specific data set and displaying it wrong. But, as new data comes in it eventually will display it closer to what the outcome will be and eventually the models do in some way converge on a solution Very well put sir. Good post. Absolutely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm still worried about the cold air or lack there of. To much north movement would make the storm too warm, it has to be positioned just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GEM at 74 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Pretty big differences on the 0z GGEM 60 hr panel compared to 12z GGEM 72 Hr....s/w is not as strung out and looks way more amped, with significant height rises along the east coast, 1007 mb low along the southern AL/GA border whereas before it had a weaker surface reflection in the GOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GEM at 74 hours... Getting there, and no more weird low structure. If the Euro comes on board later, it would be a huge plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm still worried about the cold air or lack there of. To much north movement would make the storm too warm, it has to be positioned just right. Anywhere north of a line from Trenton to Sandy Hook this should be all snow. South of there it gets more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If you only knew. ohhh you have physic powers, that changes everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Take a look at the 0z GGEM vs 12z @ 60 vs 72 hrs...big step toward the NAM/GFShttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_50.gifhttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/478_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm still worried about the cold air or lack there of. To much north movement would make the storm too warm, it has to be positioned just right. GFS has h850 and h925 below freezing well below TTN and down near AC or below. This is a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has h850 and h925 below freezing. This is a snowstorm. Well yea as it stands now, this will not be the exact final solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GEM at 74 hours... That is one hell of a shift north. Last run it had zero precip north of Cape Hatteras! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 So I guess we're all now waiting for approval from the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GEM at 74 hours... That is one hell of a shift north. Last run it had zero precip north of Cape Hatteras! Haha I know...wild shift north ! Not sure if many have seen...but the GFS is also closer to bringing back the storm for next Sunday....and literally has an additional 3-4 threats of snow throughout the run and is frigid much of the time ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has h850 and h925 below freezing well below TTN and down near AC or below. This is a snowstorm. Yes, I agree, there should be some snow down there as well, but surface temps may be a problem at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Haha I know...wild shift north ! Not sure if many have seen...but the GFS is also closer to bringing back the storm for next Sunday....and literally has an additional 3-4 threats of snow throughout the run and is frigid much of the time ! I have been calling that one for the 22nd into the 23rd on my blog for two days already. That looks like a definite too as it has shown up consistently on the model every day now since 384 hrs out basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 So I guess we're all now waiting for approval from the king. Yeah, basically. I think it is just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am 90% sure the Euro will come way north on tonight's run. The SREF's also came north big time (so north that we have to worry about mixing issues). I think this is a quick 3-6 in. storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am 90% sure the Euro will come way north on tonight's run. The SREF's also came north big time (so north that we have to worry about mixing issues). I think this is a quick 3-6 in. storm. Sounds about right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If Dr. No doesn't climb on board, will it be all vs. Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS has h850 and h925 below freezing well below TTN and down near AC or below. This is a snowstorm. Losing the stupid primary low is a huge positive. We won't rain unless the coastal low somehow tracks directly over/near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If Dr. No doesn't climb on board, will it be all vs. Euro? Pretty much. The euro was just yuck this aftn really delayed ejecting the s/w and it was a sheared out mess with little surface reflection or precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If Dr. No doesn't climb on board, will it be all vs. Euro? No, NOGAPS didn't jump on at 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I've liked this storm for days now, this probably won't be a bomb but I can see a 4-8" event, maybe slightly higher for some. The 50/50 low structure will prevent this from becoming too amped and too far to the northwest so I don't think that's going to be an issue plus the still progressive nature of the pattern makes that unlikely. It's more likely to stay further south but seeing the trends, I'm liking where we stand. I'm hoping the Euro can confirm that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GEFS is slightly se of op but it shows a decent amount of precip (btw before anyone asks I'm viewing it on sv) Precip wise it's 0.25-0.5 for many. 0.5-0.75 area probably on the south shore and into central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z GEFS. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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