Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At 78 mod snow for everyone 992 low sitting around 100 miles east of acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At 81 500mb closed off just south of LI mod to heavy precip NYC east and south sub 988 south of the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At hour 81, NYC is getting a snowstorm. Low is right on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro or not, we have no choice but to take this seriously now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I don't know....just seems odd the euro would Completely miss this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The whole area is in 0.5-0.75 (south of 287 let's say since I don't have a 12 hour precip map) and southern areas especially are prob 0.75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukie huge jump north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At hour 81, NYC is getting a snowstorm. Low is right on the benchmark. Slightly south so it passes just se of 40/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z data have some new info? I wonder of we see a suite wide shift north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm sure the euro will make a big move north. Basically the general consensus is/will be a 4-7" snowstorm for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukie huge jump north! Precip in the area now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Precip in the area now? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm sure the euro will make a big move north. Basically the general consensus is/will be a 4-7" snowstorm for most of us Listen I'd love if this were the case I just doubt it right now. This shift north is curious for sure but let's not count are chickens before they hatch. Always thought this was a legit threat though with a pure southern stream s/w amplifying up the coast. Definitely favors southern areas but we could all still see a moderate event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here is the precip map, the GFS seems consistent, maybe this time it's beats the ECMWF'; sometime the Mets also win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Precip in the area now? Yes. Still needs another jog north, but it's game on now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yes UKIE 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here is the precip map, the GFS seems consistent, maybe this time it's beats the ECMWF'; sometime the Mets also win. Haha I find that hilarious being a mets fan. Anyway it does rarely occur that the goofus sniffs something out. This would be the time too since it had it for like 12 straight runs before letting it go se and now bringing it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Very positive run, it makes sense synoptically as well. Euro should def make a shift tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro will come north and more amplified. I've seen this many times..It's a data thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro will come north and more amplified. I've seen this many times..It's a data thing Right if the 0z data that came in showed something with the s/w coming in from the NW that could alter things downstream greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro's bias could be in play. We will see later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro's bias could be in play. We will see later. Ya it does look funky with the ejection of the s/w out of the southwest. We all just assume its right because its the euro, but if there were a specific time where it could be awfully wrong it would be this. Still don't think the euro shows anything significant for our area but it could trend north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah that's a substantial north jump on the UKMET,,,if GGEM also comes jumps north I'd be the surprised, if Dr.No doesn't say Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's a good possibility this loads up a bit more on the moisture as well. Gulf is open and I'd expect qpf to only go up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah that's a substantial north jump on the UKMET,,,if GGEM also comes jumps north I'd be the surprised, if Dr.No doesn't say Yes. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The pattern to me makes sense for a storm to come north-other than the kicker behind it I don't see a major reason why it wouldn't, beyond the progressivity of the overall pattern perhaps. The southern jet storms usually trend north unless there's a huge area of blocking/confluence like 2/6/10 which barred that monster from making it any further. It also just strikes me as odd that the GFS would consistently be NW of the Euro when normally it's reversed. This doesn't look like a huge, crippling kind of storm to me-more like a 4-8" kind of event, but should be a very nice refresher to the snow we're going to lose tomorrow-Weds. I'm guardedly optimistic and hopefully the Euro comes on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The Euro is still king even if it didn't see this before the gfs. It's bias is clearly in play here with holding energy back. Didn't someone say it did that with the blizzard of 96 (which I'm certainly not comparing this to). I also really don't think the gfs is as bad as some believe it is. Yes it screws up big sometimes but it can also score big. Perhaps it depends on the type of storm we're looking at. The last storm was a pseudo miller A/B type situation with a late phase, This one looks like a pure miller A to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro is the king in the 3-5 day range..DO NOT discount it!..Believe me, i wish the GFS is right,but it usually is wrong especially going up against the Euro..beware! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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