Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's rain unfortunately but it's the nam Rossi it's not rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 While its still an outlier, the nam at least gives some hope the other guidance could trend north and meet the nam half way. It'll be inetersting to see if the gfs comes back to earlier solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 1234....I edited my main post to say it was more organized. It did of course look like a lot less precip the first part of the run, did it not ? Please try to make more posts pertaining to the weather or your interpretation of the model runs rather than methods of making others look wrong. I admittedly was wrong initially , which is why I corrected myself. Most of your posts, like your last few, are just pretentious attempted attacks at others that contribute even less to the discussion than you feel others contribute. I know you are very knowledgeable and can contribute a lot here to the discussion, it's just disappointing that many times more effort is put into the bashing of others than clarifying what others interpret wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's rain unfortunately but it's the nam Rossi It is snow north of a line from Trenton to Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 It is snow north of a line from Trenton to Sandy Hook. yeah, verbatim this is snow thump for most of NYC metro, of course, no point in analyzing a 78-84 hour nam panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yeah, verbatim this is snow thump for most of NYC metro, of course, no point in analyzing a 78-84 hour nam panel Yeah, like I said this model did not get the placement of the precip correct from 12 hours out with the last storm. Whatever, it is for entertainment purposes only, but it is interesting how similar it is to today's JMA which actually looked like the Euro yesterday. Who knows? Actually 2 or 3 of the GFS ensemble members also look like this, so yeah, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I've always thought the "king" talk was overdone as the ECM/GFS verification scores are not significantly different. It's not as if they're in different divisions. Iso surprised at your comment. Verification scores can be misleading IMO. (Statistics are a funny thing.) I think the euro and GFS ARE in different divisions, ever if not not a massacre If the GFS disappeared tomorrow, few would miss it. Losing the euro would set back weather forecasting dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm waiting to see how the 0z GFS does. The NAM looks awesome, I would love for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's definitely not snow through 81h. Check your h925, nasty warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 A lot of spread with the SREF http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's definitely not snow through 81h. Check your h925, nasty warm nose. Probably not for you, but it is for 90% of the people here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 A lot of spread with the SREF http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/srefloop.html Yes, a lot of the members bring a decent amount of QPF in the area which is good even though they are warm. I'm not worried about p-type at this moment. I'm worried if we'll even see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Snowmap shows a couple of inches for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Probably not for you, but it is for 90% of the people here. Other than a car topper at the end, its snow for you either, check H925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 purely for entertainment purposes, the 21z RSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Other than a car topper at the end, its snow for you either, check H925. Not when it blows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's definitely not snow through 81h. Check your h925, nasty warm nose. For south jersey, yes. This is all snow for central/north jersey/nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Again, purely for entertainment, the 21z ETA looks NAM-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Other than a car topper at the end, its snow for you either, check H925. Let's worry about H925 temps when the Euro actually shows a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Let's worry about H925 temps when the Euro actually shows a storm +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Other than a car topper at the end, its snow for you either, check H925. A thin warm nose at that layer can be overcome by moderate precipitation. The precipitation type maps show snow during the best precipitation. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_0z/f81.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it all comes down to the vort, GFS and EURO have been shearing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think we should worry about if any model other than the NAM show any substantial precip entering the area before we worry too much about if its all snow or not ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Let's worry about H925 temps when the Euro actually shows a storm Good point. As far as NAM, I'm only depicting what it shows, a warm nose with ESE winds over 90% of NJ and all of Long Island. Not trying to rain on anyone's parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS looks more amplified...lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Higher heights along the east coast through hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 vort definitely more amped through hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Woof. Major improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This run is more amped up so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great run coming in, through hr 69, 500/700 levels look very much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.