SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It should definitely continue to be watched, it wouldn't take much of a shift to get us a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50742243#50742243 Spectacular Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ultimately it boils down to the strength and timing of the northern stream short wave that follows the STJ energy, which we've been referring to as the "kicker". This feature on the 18z GFS is more potent, and thus it acts to ruin the sern short wave's ability to amplify and pump heights. The 12z GFS run had a much weaker northern "kicker" (compare the 12z GFS and 18z GFS at H5 valid 12z Thur morning), such that the southern energy could amplify. The 18z GFS has the northern short wave stronger into the Mid-West by 12z Thursday which really flattens the height field downstream.The northern vort intensity is highly volatile and is still way out in the north/central Pacific as we speak. Difficult to see whether the GFS is a blip run or the start of a trend. The final solution is at least 36 hours away IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50742243#50742243 if you know a fundamentally superior model (the euro) shows something different than the GFS/canadian/ukmet etc, it's impossible not to favor the euro virtually by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The media is about 15 year late on this. The Euro has always been king. Though, the 48 hr Eta was even better. if you know a fundamentally superior model (the euro) shows something different than the GFS/canadian/ukmet etc, it's impossible not to favor the euro virtually by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still, Euro never yielded in forecasting 11 to 17" for my area. I received 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The media is about 15 year late on this. The Euro has always been king. Though, the 48 hr Eta was even better.[/quoteI thinlk it took the three day out miss of a northeast hurricane landfall strike to finally get it into the main stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still, Euro never yielded in forecasting 11 to 17" for my area. I received 8. I've always thought the "king" talk was overdone as the ECM/GFS verification scores are not significantly different. It's not as if they're in different divisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still, Euro never yielded in forecasting 11 to 17" for my area. I received 8. The euro locked on 8 days out. It hit ths thing our of the park. For the most part the euro at the end brought the southern edge of 6 to 12 to our area. I mean best one week forecast for a huge item ive seem in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still, Euro never yielded in forecasting 11 to 17" for my area. I received 8. Meh. 8" vs. 12" isn't that huge a difference sensibly or in terms of models IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Education and science is not a priority in the US, when I went to grad school the foriegn students were way ahead of us. Of course the ECMWF is superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still, Euro never yielded in forecasting 11 to 17" for my area. I received 8. The Euro for about 4 straight runs had 1.5" or more liquid falling as snow where I live, which would probably add up to 20"+ with ratios. I had 12". I still think the Euro was far superior with this storm generally than the GFS, and it's impossible to accurately forecast the minor shifts that define these kind of Miller B-esque storms. Had I gone to snow at 4pm instead of 8pm, I likely would've had up to another foot. That's one of the more difficult things to forecast accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I've always thought the "king" talk was overdone as the ECM/GFS verification scores are not significantly different. It's not as if they're in different divisions. Agreed and if I'm not mistaken, the GFS, at least down here, handled the partial phase better. It's snow QPF was right on. The euro locked on 8 days out. It hit ths thing our of the park. For the most part the euro at the end brought the southern edge of 6 to 12 to our area. I mean best one week forecast for a huge item ive seem in a while It was superior to all other models in medium range but in the short term it's been running a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Education and science is not a priority in the US, when I went to grad school the foriegn students were way ahead of us. Of course the ECMWF is superior. And this is evidenced by the poor conditions/state of many schools throughout the country but that's a topic of another conversation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Meh. 8" vs. 12" isn't that huge a difference sensibly or in terms of models IMO. Yet 0" vs 4" would be very upsetting for most. Believe me, I was totally pumped to see 8" fall. Pretty much spent the whole weekend outside with the kids sleigh riding and having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sref shows .10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Sref shows .10+ .25" line just south of the city too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It is less amplified though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If the euro shows the same miss and the gfs agrees on tonight's 0z run, let's let the fat lady sing and concentrate on the next real threat next weekend. This event was not meant to be IMO and I expect tonight's euro and gfs runs to be the final nail in the coffin. On to the next one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Even if this storm were to trend more NW again, it's not like it's going to be anything near major. Only 3-6" was on the table, now it looks more like a few snow showers. Not horrible. Certainly think the 2/17-2/19 event has a higher chance than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It is less amplified though. look at the individual members, they are all over the place. Some have precip ending before others even have it starting, some are out to sea and some cut early...huge spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00z NAM is less organized, surprisingly not much further southeast...but the area if precip is much less organized and less amped up EDIT : looks much better at 78 hours....could be a solid 3-6" event for many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00z NAM is less organized, surprisingly not much further southeast...but the area if precip is much less organized and less amped up EDIT : looks much better at 78 hours....could be a solid 3-6" event for many areas Nam is more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yep...am is very amped up....and is a quick hitting 4-7" for inland areas with snow to rain/mix for the coast. Naturally, I don't think that will happen and I think it'd be a primarily snow event even at the coast....but it actually is trending in the right direction. I'm hoping to see GFS and euro follow along and at least begin to trend NW. There is now even a chance that storm could bomb out pretty quickly and spread a nice band of heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM looks nearly identical to the JMA, with .50-.75 throughout our area. Unfortunately, this does not mean much considering it could not get the placement of the precip right with the last storm only 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00z NAM is less organized, surprisingly not much further southeast...but the area if precip is much less organized and less amped up EDIT : looks much better at 78 hours....could be a solid 3-6" event for many areas It's rain unfortunately but it's the nam Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM looks nearly identical to the JMA, with .50-.75 throughout our area. Unfortunately, this does not mean much considering it could not get the placement of the precip right with the last storm only 12 hours out. Yep....placement of the heavy precip could be WAY off....could be down towards DC, however the fact that the NAM does show something towards a more extreme solution does mean something, as it did with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yep...am is very amped up....and is a quick hitting 4-7" for inland areas with snow to rain/mix for the coast. Naturally, I don't think that will happen and I think it'd be a primarily snow event even at the coast....but it actually is trending in the right direction. I'm hoping to see GFS and euro follow along and at least begin to trend NW. There is now even a chance that storm could bomb out pretty quickly and spread a nice band of heavy snow. The trend has definitely not been nw today and the nam at this range is about as useful as a fart in a windstorm, it has even been horrid in the short range this winter, remember that epic norlun trough it was showing right up until the non event a few weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 . The trend has definitely not been nw today and the nam at this range is about as useful as a fart in a windstorm, it has even been horrid in the short range this winter, remember that epic norlun trough it was showing right up until the non event a few weeks ago? Well, the JMA looked like the Euro yesterday, and now the NAM and the JMA look identical, so your statement is definitely not entirely accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 1234....I edited my main post to say it was more organized. It did of course look like a lot less precip the first part of the run, did it not ? Please try to make more posts pertaining to the weather or your interpretation of the model runs rather than methods of making others look wrong. I admittedly was wrong initially , which is why I corrected myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.