SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not a lot, the NAM is wildly inaccurate at this range. But it's worth keeping it in the back of your mind especially with the SREF more amplified and the GFS not completely a whiff either. If the Euro was right I'd expect the NAM to be more amped than the Euro but not THIS much, the NAM being this far NW to me means the GFS may have the right idea right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yeah, I posted back on the last page to look out for the low levels and boundary layer with southeast winds likely ahead of the system at 10m. I'm sure there would be some potential for some frozen precipitation as the coastal low developed. But its interesting to see the NAM trending farther northwest with the eventual track of the vortmax. Yesterdays DGEX extension had the vort tracking off the coast. at 84 hrs the soundings are still snow north of Trenton, although NYC is a bit warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 at 84 hrs the soundings are still snow north of Trenton, although NYC is a bit warm at the surface. Next frame rain. We want the Nam to be this amplified with the euro so suppressed. Best Nam run we could have had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The energy is coming from the SW. Not one of the Euro's strength's from my experience. Euro kinda shears it out as it heads east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It is the true king....but 3 days out it can still move to the GFS, it's not like the euro and GFS are light years apart (like the Nam). [/quot The euros precip shield looks light. Mayb a bias at ths range But it doesnt even hav a northern component. Its one southern sw and is south. I just believe it. Too me the nam is not anywhere near its range. I would have like the euro ens to hav been further north. It has been spot on since dec. It likes the wknd system and i do too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 this just in from JB: ECMWF/GFS should correct n with southern plains to east coast system mid/n atl..amariillo to atlantic city axis of heaviest still on table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If the Euro was right I'd expect the NAM to be more amped than the Euro but not THIS much, the NAM being this far NW to me means the GFS may have the right idea right now. Agree, I think the NAM is too amped up. In the next coming days I thiink the NAM will def trend less amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Quite frankly the fact that the NAM is a rainstorm makes the Euro solution even more unlikely to verify. A NAM snowstorm would've meant the range in possible storm tracks was significantly smaller, and thus a higher probability of the ECMWF being close to reality. The 18z NAM is honestly the best solution one could ask for given the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Agree, I think the NAM is too amped up. In the next coming days I thiink the NAM will def trend less amped. Agree that it's too amped right now, but the fact that it's so amplified tells me the ECMWF will do some favorable trending as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Quite frankly the fact that the NAM is a rainstorm makes the Euro solution even more unlikely to verify. A NAM snowstorm would've meant the range in possible storm tracks was significantly smaller, and thus a higher probability of the ECMWF being close to reality. The 18z NAM is honestly the best solution one could ask for given the Euro. Agree. I would now expect the Euro to trend a bit more NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 12z GFS has the kicker, coming faster, bigger into Dakotas. While the ECMWF on the other hand, is keep this storm flat, by not having upstream shortwave clear out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 DGEX transfers to the coast. Looks warm though. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06_county090.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This from Mount Holly AFD: LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/CALENDER DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES: ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREESTUESDAY COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY...WARMING5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLING TO NEARNORMAL SATURDAY AND THEN THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF WELL BELOWNORMAL COLD NEXT SUNDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES.500 MB: A STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE DRIVES EASTWARD FROM QUEBEC MONDAYNIGHT THROUGH THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVEIN THE VICINITY OF OKLAHOMA TUESDAY EVENING MOVES TO DELMARVAWEDNESDAY EVENING AND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE. THIS SHORT WAVESHOULD NOT BE DISCOUNTED AS A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT PLAYER IN WHATAPPEARS TO BE AN ACTIVE WINTRY FIRST TWO WEEKS OF FEBRUARY HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 DGEX transfers to the coast. Looks warm though. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06_county090.gif Yes, looks nearly identical to the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS is coming in way flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 That is all snow from Trenton north on the DGEX. 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS is coming in way flatterYou comparing to nam or 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 You comparing to nam or 12z? Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 18z GFS way flat. Could be SE bias. But this very flat. Not even snow for DC. EDIT: Precip expands north after exiting the NC/SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro lock in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro lock in GFS went to the Euro but things can change., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yeah, looks pretty much like the Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Light snow up to NJ at 78... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still worth watching in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still gives us flurries in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 18z runs have been erratic to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not surprising , the gfs trended towards the euro, the fat lady is standing at the microphone right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 18z runs have been erratic to say the least. Yea, I think the fact that the NAM went well north and the GFS with its SE bias sided with the Euro, I think there still some chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I love JB , he` s a personal friend I know hes just saying its not the table , but AC is the northern extent IMO , not the midpoint . The GFS shift south is subtle , not saying its a lock and that the Euro has to be right , but I would bet the models break south and not the Euro north . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/50742243#50742243 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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