NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Pittsburgh NWS siding with the more consistent GFS in their afternoon AFD http://kamala.cod.edu/pa/latest.fxus61.KPBZ.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 They're not as bullish yesterday. Precip is probably less expansive than it would have been yesterday. They're pretty bullish actually. Of all the individual members, I can only count 2 of them that are flat and would give us no precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If the euro shows another complete miss tonight, it's probably a wrap for this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If the euro shows another complete miss tonight, it's probably a wrap for this thing Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 18z Nam is still coming in amplified through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 They're pretty bullish actually. Of all the individual members, I can only count 2 of them that are flat and would give us no precipitation. That's good. How many just graze us tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Be it right or wrong, the 18z NAM has the center of low pressure in the exact same spot as the prior run at 66 hrs. And I mean exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Be it right or wrong, the 18z NAM has the center of low pressure in the exact same spot as the prior run at 66 hrs. And I mean exact. The mid levels are significantly less amplified so I would assume it will adjust to the south and east of the 12z run, which was probably too amplified for our area anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 However, the 18z nam is a bit weaker with the southern stream energy than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Placement of the northern low remains the same as the prior run through the end of the run, however it does a weird double barrel low thing at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Significant shield of snow is right on our doorsteps at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Stupid Nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Significant shield of snow is right on our doorsteps at the end of the run. Yep, not a bad run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z EC ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So what is everyone thinking as far as actual impacts? Timing and amounts "(or not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yep, not a bad run at all. I see the Nam as out on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 seems like Nam wants to turns this into a sw flow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Watch the low levels and the boundary layer in a situation like this with southeast winds on the coast. This is assuming the NAM is correct in its more amplified idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I see the Nam as out on its own. It is. It's further north than the GFS. The Euro and its ensembles are identical, ensembles a tad faster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Watch the low levels and the boundary layer in a situation like this with southeast winds on the coast. This is assuming the NAM is correct in its more amplified idea. Should i be giving it much consideration? Seems much different than all other models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It is. It's further north than the GFS. The Euro and its ensembles are identical, ensembles a tad faster though. The Euro's bias might be at play here. Based off of the Euro ensembles track, we should get light precip up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yuck Euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 While I can imagine the euro moving to something like what the GFS is showing (though unlikely IMO), the Nam is simply in a different world. There is no way that the euro can be THAT far off at this range while the Nam is out of its range; its solution is likely bogus (putting aside the idea that even a blind squirrel may find a nut by accident). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 While I can imagine the euro moving to something like what the GFS is showing (though unlikely IMO), the Nam is simply in a different world. There is no way that the euro can be THAT far off at this range while the Nam is out of its range; its solution is likely bogus (putting aside the idea that even a blind squirrel may find a nut by accident). Yes, except that the GFS ensemble mean looks even better for our area than the GFS operational and now the JMA is even more amped than the GFS. So, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Should i be giving it much consideration? Seems much different than all other models... Not a lot, the NAM is wildly inaccurate at this range. But it's worth keeping it in the back of your mind especially with the SREF more amplified and the GFS not completely a whiff either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We gona find out if the euro is the true king or many of us are gona look stupid for kissing its ass so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not a lot, the NAM is wildly inaccurate at this range. But it's worth keeping it in the back of your mind especially with the SREF more amplified and the GFS not completely a whiff either. NAM at this range would be a rain storm. Primary is the dominant low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We gona find out if the euro is the true king or many of us are gona look stupid for kissing its ass so much. It is the true king....but 3 days out it can still move to the GFS, it's not like the euro and GFS are light years apart (like the Nam). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NAM at this range would be a rain storm. Primary is the dominant low. Yeah, I posted back a few posts to look out for the low levels and boundary layer with southeast winds likely ahead of the system at 10m. I'm sure there would be some potential for some frozen precipitation as the coastal low developed. But its interesting to see the NAM trending farther northwest with the eventual track of the vortmax. Yesterdays DGEX extension had the vort tracking off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We gona find out if the euro is the true king or many of us are gona look stupid for kissing its ass so much. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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