earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This looks pretty horrid so far...the shortwave is strung out and the surface reflection is poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This looks pretty horrid so far...the shortwave is strung out and the surface reflection is poor. It's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is handling the shortwave differently through 54 hours...much slower and farther southwest so far compared to last nights run. 9/10 times I'd side with the Euro, but can we play the southwest bias card here? http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/models/ecmwf.htm One of the main model biases with the ECMWF model is that it tends to overdevelop mid-level and upper-level cyclones across the southwestern United States. The reason for this is that the model is not fast enough to move a system out from the desert southwest and actually slows the system down and further develops it in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is definitely a bit slower with the southwestern shortwave trough compared to the NAM/GFS @ 48 hours. On the Euro the s/w is just about past the AZ/NM border while the GFS/NAM have it close to entering the NM/TX border...not sure if that would make much of a difference though. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is definitely a bit slower with the southwestern shortwave trough compared to the NAM/GFS @ 48 hours. On the Euro the s/w is just about past the AZ/NM border while the GFS/NAM have it close to entering the NM/TX border...not sure if that would make much of a difference though. . If it's slower, the kicker could have more time to catch up to it, flatten it and kick it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is definitely a bit slower with the southwestern shortwave trough compared to the NAM/GFS @ 48 hours. On the Euro the s/w is just about past the AZ/NM border while the GFS/NAM have it close to entering the NM/TX border...not sure if that would make much of a difference though. . in my eyes the whole issue is the euro just does not phase in the northern stream. All the other features are decently close on the two. Besides the phase the speed of the next s/w in northern plains is faster on the gfs. The gfs is amplifide more so and causes a negative tilt which allows the storm to ride northeast. While the euro has really no northern stream involvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If the Euro and the GFS were flipped , It would be so easy to see the error , but man I have a hard time believing the Euro would be this far off 4 straight runs , if it wasnt going to be right . I just dont trust the GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If the Euro and the GFS were flipped , It would be so easy to see the error , but man I have a hard time believing the Euro would be this far off 4 straight runs , if it wasnt going to be right . I just dont trust the GFS . Yes, I could not agree with you more. It is very difficult to trust the GFS here. The GFS is most likely wrong, but we also know that the Euro does not do as well with the northern stream, so it is possible it is missing something here, but yeah, I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If the Euro and the GFS were flipped , It would be so easy to see the error , but man I have a hard time believing the Euro would be this far off 4 straight runs , if it wasnt going to be right . I just dont trust the GFS . Its hard to believe it would be suffering from its bias down in the SW THIS close in, usually thats a beyond Day 5 issue for it but its still possible its not handling something correct with the speed or intensity of the northern stream disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Darn. What the heck? Just to make this forecast even more difficult. Yeah, the JMA is not a great model, but it has scored a couple of coups here this winter. Who knows? Getting more interesting by the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Let's not forget, with a deep snowpack throughout the northeast, the models will be over-doing the warmth. As long as the winds aren't coming out of the south-southeast, this would mainly be snow. Let's not worry about the temps, just the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12Z high res. EURO for the NE is a complete miss Wed nite-Thurs. here in NYC. Later on the 14th. it sends the 32 deg. line out of NYS anyway! Some hope for next Sat. maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'd like to wait and see what the Euro ensembles show. The only other model siding with the Euro is the GGEM. GFS has the NAM, JMA, DGEX for support. I wouldn't cancel it just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The GFS keys on the nothern feature with its southern piece and the Euro doesnt even have one so its off at HATT and gone . So here we are again 4 days out , one to bremuda one w a 996 slp off AC . Im afraid to get in bed with the GFS there`s a good chance you wake up pregnant . -Sorry NCEP guys . Its hard to believe it would be suffering from its bias down in the SW THIS close in, usually thats a beyond Day 5 issue for it but its still possible its not handling something correct with the speed or intensity of the northern stream disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The GFS keys on the nothern feature with its southern piece and the Euro doesnt even have one so its off at HATT and gone . So here we are again 4 days out , one to bremuda one w a 996 slp off AC . Im afraid to get in bed with the GFS there`s a good chance you wake up pregnant . -Sorry NCEP guys . Yeah, you know trying to predict which model here is correct now with the JMA coming in like that is like really difficult. The Canadian almost always sides with the Euro as they are off the same initialization schema. What schema does the JMA use? I thought it was the same one that the Euro used? Yeah, we also know the GFS tends to do better with northern stream dominated storms. We also know that the Euro tends to hold back energy in the southwest. You almost give it a 51-49 edge now to the GFS with the JMA coming in like that and knowing what we know about the biases and all. But, yeah, siding with the GFS is dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Darn. What the heck? Just to make this forecast even more difficult. Yeah, the JMA is not a great model, but it has scored a couple of coups here this winter. Who knows? Getting more interesting by the minute. Looks good but only if NYC is Tokyo this is the JMA Meso for Asia. What is the JMA east coast track record in the long term, if it has one on the global. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If the Euro and the GFS were flipped , It would be so easy to see the error , but man I have a hard time believing the Euro would be this far off 4 straight runs , if it wasnt going to be right . I just dont trust the GFS . 4 stars. i dont have any confidence in anything until the euro shows it. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Off topic, sorry... But Living in Lynbrook (westernn Nassau off the southern state), where is the closest I can take a drive to today eastward to see first hand the 24" + snow amounts before being stopped by blocked LIE and Sunrise Hgwy roads? Suggestions, directions? ETA's LOL Take the southern state to the Sunken Meadow and take that north to the park. They probably got 2 feet, but heading east from there will be dicey with the road conditions (you could try it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks good but only if NYC is Tokyo this is the JMA Meso for Asia. What is the JMA east coast track record in the long term, if it has one on the global. it does...not great but not the worst. Nailed this past storm in the short term though around this timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks good but only if NYC is Tokyo this is the JMA Meso for Asia. What is the JMA east coast track record in the long term, if it has one on the global. Right now it is #5, but it is very hit or miss. It is usually better than the Canadian, but it is lagging at the moment. With a couple of storms this winter though it did very well, better than any other model with one. Who knows? It is a very hit or miss model. Thing is, you don't know if it is hitting or missing with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 25A is Northern Blvd. for us in Nassau & Queens County! Suffolk may just call it 25A. Its called Main Street in Smithtown where it joins briefly with 25 and going east from Smithown it is known as North Country Road. It also has lots of other names for short stretches where it joins with other roads. For example part of it between Kings Park and Smithtown is called St Johnland Road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 By the way, the JMA looked a lot like the Euro on yesterday's run. This was a massive northern shift for the model. Potential red flag. The JMA only goes out past 72 hours on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 15z SREF has a much more expansive precip shield than the Eurohttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=15ℑ=sref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 By the way, the JMA looked a lot like the Euro on yesterday's run. This was a massive northern shift for the model. Potential red flag. The JMA only goes out past 72 hours on the 12z run. The JMA goes out to 192 in it's 12z run. Only 72 hrs in the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 15z SREF has a much more expansive precip shield than the Euro http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=15ℑ=sref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif They're not as bullish yesterday. Precip is probably less expansive than it would have been yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 HPChttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Looks like the GFS track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 HPC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Looks like the GFS track Pretty clearly looks south of the gfs track. More of a gfs euro blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Pretty clearly looks south of the gfs track. More of a gfs euro blend. Agree HPC DEEP PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK UP TOWARD ALASKA COMMONLY DEPICTED IN RECENT GUIDANCE AND WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LEADS TO MINIMAL FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE BUILDING OF AN AMPLIFIED WRN NOAM MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THU/FRI. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AMPLE DOWNSTREAM EAST-CENTRAL US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR COLD AIR TO DIG SWD FROM CANADA AND HIGHLIGHTS A THREAT OF GREAT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND POSSIBLE ERN US LOW/SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AS AIDED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DYNAMICS. EMBEDDED IMPULSE SPECIFICS/STREAM PHASING WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED LOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER RESPONSE/SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. THAT SCALE OF WEATHER HOWEVER HAS LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THESE LONGER MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES BUT A WINTER THREAT REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NRNMID-ATLANTIC AND NERN US NEXT WEEKEND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILLREMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTSTATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING ASURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULFCOAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF OUTPUT NOW MARKTHE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT...BUT 06Z AND 12Z GUIDANCECERTAINLY HAS TRENDED SLOWER. THIS INCLUDES THE UKMET WHICHSUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF THE 06Z GFS AS A MIDDLE GROUND. THE ECMWFSHOWED THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN CHANGE...AS IT HAD BEEN MARKING THEFAST END OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE 12Z RUN NOW JOINS THE NAM/SREF ATTHE SLOW END.IT IS THE SURFACE WHERE THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER...IN PRODUCINGA LOW TRACK THAT STAYS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MUCH FARTHERINLAND THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. EVEN THE CANADIAN AND RECENT GFSRUNS...WHICH SUPPORT THE NAM IN OTHER RESPECTS...KEEP LOW PRESSURECONFINED TO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE IN PLACEACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE GFS IS THOUGHT TO BEDEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHAT PREMATURELY...WITH DEEPENINGMORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTICON DAY 4. BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERALLTREND WITH RESPECT TO TRACK. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE UKMETSURFACE LOW TRACK HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND GEFSMEAN...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SHARES THIS TREND ALTHOUGHSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BEYOND DAY 3. IT IS CURRENTLYDIFFICULT TO FIND ANY OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT CLOSELY FIT OURCONCEPTUAL MODEL...BUT IN COORDINATION WITH THE HPC MEDIUM RANGEPRESSURE DESK...WE FAVOR THE 06Z GFS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH JUST ASLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST AND WITH DELAYEDSTRENGTHENING UNTIL REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.