Mitchel Volk Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 No it is close and GFS tends to put the precipitation to far south and east, I like to see what the ECMWF has to say. If it is still OTS then NYC would has a slim chance on snow, it it does hit NYC I have no doubt it would be snow, unless it hugs the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 .75+ is oh so close. The kicker probably doesn't affect us too much but I feel that to a slight extent it may have flattened things a little bit Yes, 30 miles more north would be nice for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 25A is what road? then how far east from there? 25A is Northern Blvd. for us in Nassau & Queens County! Suffolk may just call it 25A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The difference between this and jan is the BL should b aided by snow cover to some degre if it comes at nite. Then you re worry if you're on the south facing shore is an east wind would worry about ice more than rain if the precip is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 No it is close and GFS tends to put the precipitation to far south and east, I like to see what the ECMWF has to say. If it is still OTS then NYC would has a slim chance on snow, it it does hit NYC I have no doubt it would be snow, unless it hugs the coast.I'm looking for a trend from the euro, don't need it to be a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm looking for a trend from the euro, don't need it to be a hit. that would help - this is a thread the needle event - comes too far north gets too warm at various levels too south a southern slider and we get very light amounts 12Z GFS is threading the needle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 12Z NOGAPS still is way right but its the closest its been yet, its basically almost 00Z Euro like, the Euro I think is missing something with this event, its not purely southern stream involved like this past one is and as a result we may be again seeing the GFS superiority with the northern stream again resulting in it having a better idea of whats going on, same thing thats been occurring all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Through 65 hours the GEM still looks like its not going to bite, its really having issues resolving the transition that occurs with the semi-double barrelled feature in the SE, the GEM may not be much use on this til we're inside 72 hours, its having alot of trouble with the low structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Off topic, sorry... But Living in Lynbrook (westernn Nassau off the southern state), where is the closest I can take a drive to today eastward to see first hand the 24" + snow amounts before being stopped by blocked LIE and Sunrise Hgwy roads? Suggestions, directions? ETA's LOL From NE Nassau I drove east yesterday on 25A until I got to Huntington Village and New York Avenue (a.k.a Route 110). From that intersection east, all the way out, is probably where you would want to drive. Although I wonder if there was more snow just south of there, away from the water and at higher elevation, say between 25A and 25(Jericho Tpk.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 From NE Nassau I drove east yesterday on 25A until I got to Huntington Village and New York Avenue (a.k.a Route 110). From that intersection east, all the way out, is probably where you would want to drive. Although I wonder if there was more snow just south of there, away from the water and at higher elevation, say between 25A and 25(Jericho Tpk.). There seemed to be a "max" just north of Medford along route 112, but all along that road (25A) truly has some epic scenes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This past event was purely southern stream. You have to be kidding. I meant that this coming event is not purely southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 that would help - this is a thread the needle event - comes too far north gets too warm at various levels too south a southern slider and we get very light amounts 12Z GFS is threading the needle Whats Allan Kasper saying? He nailed the last one at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It has definitely been a northern stream dominated winter season so far. In the past seven days, we saw the birth of the southern stream with a phase up event and we saw modelling that indicated a vigorous southern stream continuing this week and beyond. The latest maps (all models) are now arguing that point. If the southern stream continues to show the kind of energy that interacted with the northern stream energy for this past event, our exciting weather will continue, including this week's threat, but if that southern stream energy has been overdone by the models, we *may* be going back to the boring pattern of December and January. The models are in the process of resolving this issue and may need several more run cycles. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 12Z NOGAPS still is way right but its the closest its been yet, its basically almost 00Z Euro like, the Euro I think is missing something with this event, its not purely southern stream involved like this past one is and as a result we may be again seeing the GFS superiority with the northern stream again resulting in it having a better idea of whats going on, same thing thats been occurring all winter long. I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 12z GFS ensemble mean brings a significant snowstorm to our whole area on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I have to believe the Euro comes NW after seeing the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 gefs looks beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 starting to think the euro will come NW a bit as well. this is where the euro vs gfs debate gets more fuzzy because i have seen this before...GFS leads charge, euro follows, GFS then loses storm or backs off while euro holds serve and euro wins. Obviously we have a long way to go, but in those scenarios, saying the GFS was onto it first would be a correct statement, but can we hand out praise if it loses the storm before bringing it back? it is also why it's tricky to rely solely on verification scores, there should be like a QB rating for models taking into account wild swings in outcomes etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I have to believe the Euro comes NW after seeing the GEFS. Might or might not-who knows, although the ensembles have been NW of the Euro op as well, which raises concerns it's too suppressed. It goes back to that kicker coming in behind our S/W, because otherwise this would amplify beautifully given the amplification out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 many of you have forgotten that the euro while nailing sandy and this past event, has not been great this winter. Still the superior model for sure though. I don't necessarily think this is a major storm for our area, but based on the pattern it seems like we could be in for a moderate event, maybe on the order of 2-4in. I would not be surprised to see the euro tick NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The GFS being one of the NW models is strange as well-usually it's the other way around and suppressed while the Euro is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The GFS being one of the NW models is strange as well-usually it's the other way around and suppressed while the Euro is stronger. and may be a red flag. May just be the GFS being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 gefs looks beautiful Ill have to look at the individual members but the mean looks similar or SE of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it is very similar in track but wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 L.I.E closed exit 57 big snow in suffolk went east on the service road took pics then the road really deteriated but i got my fix turned around wasn't beating my truck for no reason.bulldozer material in spots see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro still flat?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is handling the shortwave differently through 54 hours...much slower and farther southwest so far compared to last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro still flat?... Only out to 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro is handling the shortwave differently through 54 hours...much slower and farther southwest so far compared to last nights run. Earthlight, looks improved, it certainly lags it to the sw, precip at 60 was more W as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 That being said, its still nowhere as energetic as the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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