Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:21 AM, Snow88 said: I don't see big differences same but precip looks to be more east and slightly weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Slightly stronger at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 1:37 AM, Allsnow said: We are talking about northern middlesex county which was 8-10 respectively. Se middlesex county and your area was in the relative dry area. Those counties you posted are on the western side of the state. Union in nj which is above northern middlesex ended up with 10-12 Exactly - posting reports from areas, such as Somerset/Hunterdon/Mercer, is completely irrelevant to the discussion at hand, which is whether a 6.4" report from "northern Middlesex County" surrounded by 8-10" reports, is credible or not. It's certainly possible, but highly unlikely. Would be helpful to know the location. And I'm not doubting that 6.4" was measured, but I'm calling into question whether the 6.4" was representative for a number of possible reasons (missing the initial 0.5", measuring a few hours after the sun was up and missing the compaction, measuring in a spot that was under a tree or some other interference, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 you guys need to take your goggles off..its nowhere near as good as 18Z....come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:24 AM, ace0927 said: you guys need to take your goggles off..its nowhere near as good as 18Z....come on It's good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 for comparision: 0Z 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:25 AM, ace0927 said: for comparision: 0Z 18Z . Weaker vort so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its probably not gonna miss us - but the precip will be cut down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM even on its last run didn't give us the heaviest stuff....it switched up with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like it comes in earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:26 AM, ace0927 said: its probably not gonna miss us - but the precip will be cut down low looks east but still looks like it will get the job done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks more progressive too me but looks like we may get some precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Stronger low, precip shield better organized. Doesn't look half bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Light precip into our area....better hit for PHL south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:30 AM, WintersGrasp said: Light precip into our area....better hit for PHL south 51 didnt come out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:23 AM, RU848789 said: Exactly - posting reports from areas, such as Somerset/Hunterdon/Mercer, is completely irrelevant to the discussion at hand, which is whether a 6.4" report from "northern Middlesex County" surrounded by 8-10" reports, is credible or not. It's certainly possible, but highly unlikely. Would be helpful to know the location. And I'm not doubting that 6.4" was measured, but I'm calling into question whether the 6.4" was representative for a number of possible reasons (missing the initial 0.5", measuring a few hours after the sun was up and missing the compaction, measuring in a spot that was under a tree or some other interference, etc.). look on the list...I think there were two locations one was Monroe and I forget the other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The end result won't change much. It just digs less and is more flat at h5. It's not like it's going to be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:30 AM, Snow88 said: Good hit definitly more progressive and the low just scooted east north east off the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 2-3" here or so...check out 54 hr sim radar....puts a heavy snow band in through Long Island and southern new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:28 AM, Weather Fanatic 97 said: low looks east but still looks like it will get the job done and remember the NAM usually juices up qpf somewhat so any cutting any more and its minore 1-3 event..and now with it coming in earlier I would think mixing becomes an issue for some of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Precip field looks more south than what it was on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Why is everyone worried? It's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 basically a skim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Notably colder at the surface...this can't be stressed enough given the time of day and the increased sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like the low is a good 15-20 miles south east of the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:32 AM, Snow88 said: Why is everyone worried? It's fine. It's fine for a light event, and it's just one model run, yep....but of course the NAM with its past couple runs has pulled back a bit. Still a nice 2 or 3 inches of anow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Nam and GFS look very different at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 On 2/12/2013 at 2:32 AM, WintersGrasp said: 2-3" here or so...check out 54 hr sim radar....puts a heavy snow band in through Long Island and southern new england Looks like a small CCB signature to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's probably a 1-2" or 2-4" type deal at best on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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