Big Jims Videos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 so glad i'm gonna be back home in Belmar to witness this. That banding looks unreal. Bring on Thunder Snow. This is truly like the boxing day miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You've got a vertically stacked low of the coast of NJ/SNE with a 1040 mb high in Canada and you are worrying about a cutoff that an inaccurate map shows? Relax, this is a snow nuclear bomb from TTN N&E, perhaps even PHL N& E Not that I was necessarily overly concerned, I know the clown maps are not the most accurate, hence the name "clown maps". The sharp cutoff did seem a bit suspect to me and most likely would not verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just realized ive been tracking these storms for more than 12 years with you guys many thos years featured some truly record or historics storms. In all of those years I cant recall model runs like these... Any way cheers/salute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just realized ive been tracking these storms for more than 12 years with you guys many thos years featured some truly record or historics storms. In all of those years I cant recall model runs like these... Any way cheers/salute. sacrus...agree completely. And we've seen some pretty ridiculous solutions. You couldn't paint this up yourself if you tried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I hope everyone realizes that IF those amounts are even remotely accurate that many areas could be crippled for days. I mean 30-40+ inches is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just realized ive been tracking these storms for more than 12 years with you guys many thos years featured some truly record or historics storms. In all of those years I cant recall model runs like these... Any way cheers/salute. Indeed...I've been on the forums for 10 years or so believe it or not!! (Though I'm such a weenie still I guess (but I DID win our temperature contests as a top 3 two years in a row:p) ) lol.....I can't recall many, if any, model runs even close to these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 qpf for NAM at KNYC is 3.55. 850's warm to just below 0. Surface gets as high as 33.6. Thats like 3.0in snow on the nam for KNYC here are the JFK soundings http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kjfk.txt at some right after 7PM tomorrow night we rip. As a point, LGA has a small warm bubble (+0.5) at 800mb at hr 24, but im sure that gets erased out pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just realized ive been tracking these storms for more than 12 years with you guys many thos years featured some truly record or historics storms. In all of those years I cant recall model runs like these... Any way cheers/salute. the models nailed Sandy and the November snowstorm...Those were two historic fall storms...We are living in interesting weather times...Enjoy the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 here are the JFK soundings http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kjfk.txt at some right after 7PM tomorrow night we rip. As a point, LGA has a small warm bubble (+0.5) at 800mb at hr 24, but im sure that gets erased out pretty quick ace - how does ewr and ttn look on the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at this data very impressive just a small area of warming for a short period of time. In all my years of forecasting I have never seen a blizzard forecast like this. This can easily be very historic and again the weather just keeps getting more extreme, Station ID: KNYC Lat: 40.78 Long: -73.96 NAM Model Run: 0Z FEB 8, 2013 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1024.3 1020.8 1014.9 1007.2 995.1 993.0 997.7 1004.8 1012.5 Mean SLP (mb): 1030.4 1027.0 1020.9 1013.2 1001.2 999.2 1003.9 1011.0 1018.7 2m agl Tmp (F): 28.9 30.0 33.3 33.6 31.5 24.8 20.8 23.2 20.1 2m agl Dewpt(F): 16.8 27.1 32.2 32.4 30.3 23.8 18.5 18.0 13.2 2m agl RH (%): 60 89 96 96 95 96 91 80 74 10m agl Dir: 102 82 84 61 31 343 334 334 336 10m agl Spd(kt): 5 11 13 22 30 23 26 25 19 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.31 1.32 1.31 0.58 0.01 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.33 1.65 2.96 3.55 3.55 3.55 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.2 11.5 0.9 Sfc CINH (J/kg): -0.2 -0.1 -1.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.4 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 242.7 379.0 508.4 672.8 664.1 1286.4 100.2 207.5 105.6 Precip H20 (in): 0.38 0.51 0.62 0.73 0.78 0.52 0.39 0.35 0.15 Lifted Index©: 18.9 16.3 12.7 9.6 8.7 18.2 18.4 15.7 14.3 700mb VV(-ub/s): -0.2 0.6 0.1 2.6 21.8 16.1 2.1 -2.5 -1.5 Thk1000-500mb(m)5339.9 5353.1 5385.2 5414.0 5433.4 5339.8 5272.8 5281.7 5282.3 Thk1000-850mb(m)1272.2 1286.4 1298.1 1302.4 1294.0 1266.0 1254.1 1252.9 1257.6 Thk850-700mb(m):1519.8 1519.1 1522.0 1539.2 1549.3 1510.8 1500.5 1505.8 1514.5 SWEAT Index: 63.2 226.5 251.4 109.8 147.3 151.9 189.9 142.5 162.3 Total Totals Idx 22.9 26.4 34.9 38.7 36.2 22.7 22.4 27.8 30.2 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 154 154 857 718 154 154 154 154 154 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000 -1000 636 558 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 Equil Prs (mb): 1024 1021 1015 1007 995 993 998 1005 1012 Equil Hgt(amsl): 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 Hail Size(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Conv Wind Gust: 7.0 6.9 23.0 19.7 12.3 10.7 19.2 16.8 15.7 Showalter Index: 19.4 18.2 12.9 10.0 11.4 21.0 21.4 18.4 15.3 Cap Strength©:-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 14.7 11.8 -999.9 Storm Dir (deg): 288 250 230 174 119 62 34 21 14 Storm Spd (kts): 16 17 20 24 28 25 42 37 36 2m HeatIndex(F): 29 30 33 34 32 25 21 23 20 2m WindChill(F): 23 20 23 21 16 9 2 6 4 1000mb GPH (m): 238 212 166 105 8 -8 30 86 145 950mb GPH (m): 643 620 577 516 417 395 429 485 542 950mb Temp ©: -5.7 -2.9 -1.0 -1.5 -2.5 -6.5 -9.5 -9.6 -10.2 950mb Dewpt©: -12.0 -4.2 -1.0 -1.6 -2.8 -7.4 -10.8 -11.6 -13.1 950mb RH (%): 61 91 100 99 98 94 90 86 79 950mb Dir: 121 115 109 76 42 355 339 337 341 950mb Speed(kt): 14 25 32 43 54 38 43 38 34 900mb GPH (m): 1064 1048 1008 948 846 815 845 900 958 900mb Temp ©: -7.3 -3.1 -1.1 1.3 -2.2 -8.9 -11.0 -11.7 -9.6 900mb Dewpt©: -19.7 -4.1 -1.1 1.3 -2.8 -9.7 -12.4 -13.9 -15.8 900mb RH (%): 37 93 100 99 96 93 89 84 61 900mb Dir: 163 162 142 106 61 17 356 348 357 900mb Speed(kt): 11 25 35 47 70 51 59 50 49 850mb GPH (m): 1510 1499 1464 1408 1302 1258 1285 1339 1402 850mb Temp ©: -6.3 -5.6 -2.5 -0.3 -0.6 -8.3 -9.7 -9.5 -6.9 850mb Dewpt©: -14.0 -9.3 -2.5 -0.3 -0.6 -9.1 -10.7 -12.0 -16.4 850mb RH (%): 55 75 100 100 100 95 93 82 47 850mb Dir: 217 188 170 122 81 42 22 9 355 850mb Speed(kt): 13 24 31 40 65 65 69 47 52 800mb GPH (m): 1985 1974 1942 1891 1787 1729 1753 1810 1876 800mb Temp ©: -4.9 -5.2 -5.6 -1.7 -0.1 -8.2 -9.1 -7.3 -5.7 800mb Dewpt©: -22.7 -9.5 -8.4 -1.7 -0.1 -8.9 -10.1 -10.4 -21.5 800mb RH (%): 24 71 81 100 100 95 92 79 28 800mb Dir: 245 224 169 132 96 60 23 354 356 800mb Speed(kt): 17 20 21 31 49 65 65 50 53 750mb GPH (m): 2492 2479 2447 2403 2303 2231 2254 2311 2381 750mb Temp ©: -5.7 -6.2 -6.2 -3.7 -1.3 -7.0 -8.9 -8.4 -6.6 750mb Dewpt©: -10.7 -10.9 -13.1 -4.1 -1.3 -7.3 -9.9 -11.8 -25.5 750mb RH (%): 68 70 58 97 100 97 92 77 21 750mb Dir: 260 229 183 143 105 75 7 356 351 750mb Speed(kt): 22 19 10 26 39 39 66 59 49 700mb GPH (m): 3029 3018 2986 2947 2851 2769 2785 2845 2917 700mb Temp ©: -8.7 -8.2 -6.9 -5.5 -3.5 -7.6 -11.8 -9.9 -9.7 700mb Dewpt©: -10.5 -10.1 -9.2 -6.0 -3.5 -7.7 -13.2 -13.9 -29.7 700mb RH (%): 87 86 84 96 100 99 90 73 18 700mb Dir: 274 226 229 170 117 72 360 0 348 700mb Speed(kt): 24 17 9 27 29 15 65 60 48 650mb GPH (m): 3601 3589 3562 3526 3435 3344 3348 3413 3484 650mb Temp ©: -11.3 -11.2 -9.5 -8.5 -6.2 -9.6 -16.3 -13.3 -13.4 650mb Dewpt©: -13.0 -12.9 -10.7 -9.4 -6.2 -9.9 -18.0 -17.2 -35.5 650mb RH (%): 87 87 91 93 100 98 87 72 14 650mb Dir: 274 242 248 174 129 348 2 355 343 650mb Speed(kt): 28 18 19 23 25 10 67 60 50 600mb GPH (m): 4212 4200 4177 4142 4057 3959 3947 4018 4088 600mb Temp ©: -13.8 -14.3 -12.3 -11.6 -9.6 -12.4 -17.7 -16.4 -17.5 600mb Dewpt©: -15.4 -15.9 -13.6 -12.7 -9.7 -12.9 -19.6 -20.3 -37.9 600mb RH (%): 87 88 90 92 99 97 85 72 16 600mb Dir: 273 254 240 192 137 351 355 352 338 600mb Speed(kt): 32 21 32 28 20 19 58 58 54 550mb GPH (m): 4869 4856 4838 4805 4724 4619 4597 4668 4733 550mb Temp ©: -17.2 -17.2 -15.6 -15.0 -13.7 -15.6 -18.9 -19.9 -21.9 550mb Dewpt©: -19.7 -20.5 -17.1 -16.3 -14.1 -16.2 -20.9 -24.2 -42.3 550mb RH (%): 82 76 88 90 97 95 84 69 15 550mb Dir: 269 256 241 211 137 6 357 346 335 550mb Speed(kt): 37 27 41 30 19 22 57 53 56 500mb GPH (m): 5577 5565 5551 5519 5442 5332 5303 5368 5427 500mb Temp ©: -21.6 -20.7 -19.9 -19.6 -18.7 -20.0 -21.4 -24.7 -26.7 500mb Dewpt©: -24.7 -28.2 -21.8 -21.4 -19.5 -21.4 -23.6 -29.5 -46.5 500mb RH (%): 77 52 85 86 93 89 83 65 15 500mb Dir: 264 259 242 221 141 20 11 338 331 500mb Speed(kt): 38 35 47 30 18 22 52 49 59 450mb GPH (m): 6345 6338 6324 6294 6219 6105 6073 6126 6179 450mb Temp ©: -27.0 -25.1 -25.9 -25.1 -23.9 -25.4 -26.1 -29.6 -32.2 450mb Dewpt©: -30.9 -35.9 -28.2 -27.2 -25.1 -27.6 -28.4 -34.1 -50.0 450mb RH (%): 70 37 81 83 90 82 81 66 17 450mb Dir: 264 259 240 214 149 34 21 332 328 450mb Speed(kt): 39 43 48 34 18 20 39 41 61 400mb GPH (m): 7183 7183 7166 7138 7067 6948 6914 6957 6998 400mb Temp ©: -33.3 -31.5 -32.4 -31.0 -30.3 -31.5 -32.3 -35.4 -38.2 400mb Dewpt©: -38.7 -38.1 -35.3 -33.4 -31.4 -34.6 -35.2 -38.9 -53.8 400mb RH (%): 60 53 76 80 90 74 76 71 19 400mb Dir: 264 256 238 205 151 60 29 326 325 400mb Speed(kt): 47 51 49 46 20 18 32 32 64 the ratios between hr 30 and 42 will be greater than 10:1 that I can assure you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 if we assume (correctly) that the nam is likely both too amped, and too wet, we end up with a solution that is likely colder, less qpf, but a lot of snow. NAM could be right, doubt its as amped in real life. Has 3.55 for KNYC. If its higher than 3 I'd be surprised. In fact I'd guess were looking at 2.0-2.5 qpf most if not all frozen for NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ace, could be the biggest ever for some locations, wow. biggest ive had since im in woodmere was 19" Im thinking we shatter that. I will know by 8PM tomorrow night. If its still raining or pinging i wont.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the models nailed Sandy and the November snowstorm...Those were two historic fall storms...We are living in interesting weather times...Enjoy the storm... Its still in the future but man does this have the makings of something special. Even if amounts dont surpass 2010/96/2003 etc its still something to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM appears colder than the NAM at 00Z, have to see the ptype maps though first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just wanted to point this out, but the city loses about 2 inches of qpf to stuff other then snow. Though its still a nice 12-16 on the nam for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Craig Allen has a good discussion on facebook explaining his concern that rain holds on for a longer period of time and that its mostly a 6 to 12" storm from the city westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its still in the future but man does this have the makings of something special. Even if amounts dont surpass 2010/96/2003 etc its still something to watch unfold. every winter should have one good storm...It makes or brakes a winter...we remember the big storms like Feb. 1983 even though it was a mild winter on the whole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 ace - how does ewr and ttn look on the soundings EWR...WOW, 3.78" QPF, 3.38" as SNOW TTN...3.75" of which 3.21" is SNOW HOLY FOOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM appears colder than the NAM at 00Z, have to see the ptype maps though first. h24 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/511_100.gif east of nam (of course) but nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 EWR...WOW, 3.78" QPF, 3.38" as SNOW TTN...3.75" of which 3.21" is SNOW HOLY FOOK thats wrong, ttn is not 3.21 as snow, they waste 2/3 of that on mixed just like nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is anyone forgetting, this is the NAM. The NAM is notorious for exploding the QPF, or drying the QPF in events. Hasn't been great this winter. Don't get too excited. 40" of snow in NJ is possible, but unlikely. Think about it, 9" of QPF off the Jersey shore. Does that even seem logical for this time of year? That would smash all-time 24hr precip records, and it's extremely rare to do so in February. Wait till GFS and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just wanted to point this out, but the city loses about 2 inches of qpf to stuff other then snow. Though its still a nice 12-16 on the nam for you guys. Sshhhhh, submit to the hivemind! It's all snow! the NAM is our glorious leader! I've been trying to say this for a while now and people are calling me out for being a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just wanted to point this out, but the city loses about 2 inches of qpf to stuff other then snow. Though its still a nice 12-16 on the nam for you guys. tombo I respectfully disagree. We do not lose 2in in qpf as rain/sleet on the nam. At least for KNYC soundings that were posted show at most 1.0 lost as sleet/rain in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Craig Allen has a good discussion on facebook explaining his concern that rain holds on for a longer period of time and that its mostly a 6 to 12" storm from the city westward It's a legit concern for sure, maybe it's why mt holly hasn't gone more than 6-10 in central nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 EWR...WOW, 3.78" QPF, 3.38" as SNOW TTN...3.75" of which 3.21" is SNOW HOLY FOOK thanks! Nice to look at at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NYC is an isothermal snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nick Gregory was just on and he said he might have to up his snow amounts after seeing the Nam for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just wanted to point this out, but the city loses about 2 inches of qpf to stuff other then snow. Though its still a nice 12-16 on the nam for you guys. absolutely NOT, NYC is 100PCT snow...all levels are under 0C the entire storm http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 tombo I respectfully disagree. We do not lose 2in in qpf as rain/sleet on the nam. At least for KNYC http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Knyc.txt look at your layers 90o and 875 nice warm nose in there would be sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 EWR...WOW, 3.78" QPF, 3.38" as SNOW TTN...3.75" of which 3.21" is SNOW HOLY FOOK KSWF has 2.87 of QPF for the 00z. At the 12z run there was 2.86 and it put out 39.0 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.