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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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You've got a vertically stacked low of the coast of NJ/SNE  with a 1040 mb high in Canada and you are worrying about a cutoff that an inaccurate map shows? Relax, this is a snow nuclear bomb from TTN N&E, perhaps even PHL N& E 

Not that I was necessarily overly concerned, I know the clown maps are not the most accurate, hence the name "clown maps". The sharp cutoff did seem a bit suspect to me and most likely would not verify.

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I just realized ive been tracking these storms for more than 12 years with you guys many thos years featured some truly record or historics storms.  In all of those years I cant recall model runs like these...  Any way cheers/salute.

sacrus...agree completely. And we've seen some pretty ridiculous solutions. You couldn't paint this up yourself if you tried.

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I just realized ive been tracking these storms for more than 12 years with you guys many thos years featured some truly record or historics storms. In all of those years I cant recall model runs like these... Any way cheers/salute.

Indeed...I've been on the forums for 10 years or so believe it or not!! (Though I'm such a weenie still I guess :P (but I DID win our temperature contests as a top 3 two years in a row:p) ) lol.....I can't recall many, if any, model runs even close to these

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qpf for NAM at KNYC is 3.55. 850's warm to just below 0. Surface gets as high as 33.6. Thats like 3.0in snow on the nam for KNYC

here are the JFK soundings    http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kjfk.txt

 

at some right after 7PM tomorrow night we rip. As a point, LGA has a small warm bubble (+0.5) at 800mb at hr 24, but im sure that gets erased out pretty quick

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I just realized ive been tracking these storms for more than 12 years with you guys many thos years featured some truly record or historics storms.  In all of those years I cant recall model runs like these...  Any way cheers/salute.

the models nailed Sandy and the November snowstorm...Those were two historic fall storms...We are living in interesting weather times...Enjoy the storm...

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Look at this data very impressive just a small area of warming for a short period of time.  In all my years of forecasting I have never seen a blizzard forecast like this.  This can easily be very historic  and again the weather just keeps getting more extreme,

 

   Station ID: KNYC Lat:   40.78 Long:  -73.96                                                         NAM Model Run:  0Z FEB  8, 2013                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Forecast Hours:    0hr    6hr   12hr   18hr   24hr   30hr   36hr   42hr   48hr                                              Sfc Prs(mb):    1024.3 1020.8 1014.9 1007.2  995.1  993.0  997.7 1004.8 1012.5                                              Mean SLP (mb):  1030.4 1027.0 1020.9 1013.2 1001.2  999.2 1003.9 1011.0 1018.7                                              2m agl Tmp (F):   28.9   30.0   33.3   33.6   31.5   24.8   20.8   23.2   20.1                                              2m agl Dewpt(F):  16.8   27.1   32.2   32.4   30.3   23.8   18.5   18.0   13.2                                              2m agl RH (%):      60     89     96     96     95     96     91     80     74                                              10m agl Dir:       102     82     84     61     31    343    334    334    336                                              10m agl Spd(kt):     5     11     13     22     30     23     26     25     19                                              6hr Precip (in):  0.00   0.00   0.02   0.31   1.32   1.31   0.58   0.01   0.00                                              AccumPrecip(in):  0.00   0.00   0.02   0.33   1.65   2.96   3.55   3.55   3.55                                              Sfc CAPE (J/kg):   0.0    1.1    0.0    0.0    1.1    0.0    0.2   11.5    0.9                                              Sfc CINH (J/kg):  -0.2   -0.1   -1.3   -0.1    0.0    0.0   -0.6    0.0   -0.4                                              0-3km Hel(J/kg): 242.7  379.0  508.4  672.8  664.1 1286.4  100.2  207.5  105.6                                              Precip H20 (in):  0.38   0.51   0.62   0.73   0.78   0.52   0.39   0.35   0.15                                              Lifted Index©:  18.9   16.3   12.7    9.6    8.7   18.2   18.4   15.7   14.3                                              700mb VV(-ub/s):  -0.2    0.6    0.1    2.6   21.8   16.1    2.1   -2.5   -1.5                                              Thk1000-500mb(m)5339.9 5353.1 5385.2 5414.0 5433.4 5339.8 5272.8 5281.7 5282.3                                              Thk1000-850mb(m)1272.2 1286.4 1298.1 1302.4 1294.0 1266.0 1254.1 1252.9 1257.6                                              Thk850-700mb(m):1519.8 1519.1 1522.0 1539.2 1549.3 1510.8 1500.5 1505.8 1514.5                                              SWEAT Index:      63.2  226.5  251.4  109.8  147.3  151.9  189.9  142.5  162.3                                              Total Totals Idx  22.9   26.4   34.9   38.7   36.2   22.7   22.4   27.8   30.2                                              Frz Hgt(ft amsl)   154    154    857    718    154    154    154    154    154                                              0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000  -1000    636    558  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000  -1000                                              Equil Prs (mb):   1024   1021   1015   1007    995    993    998   1005   1012                                              Equil Hgt(amsl):   154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154    154                                              Hail Size(in):    0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00                                              Conv Wind Gust:    7.0    6.9   23.0   19.7   12.3   10.7   19.2   16.8   15.7                                              Showalter Index:  19.4   18.2   12.9   10.0   11.4   21.0   21.4   18.4   15.3                                              Cap Strength©:-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9   14.7   11.8 -999.9                                              Storm Dir (deg):   288    250    230    174    119     62     34     21     14                                              Storm Spd (kts):    16     17     20     24     28     25     42     37     36                                              2m HeatIndex(F):    29     30     33     34     32     25     21     23     20                                              2m WindChill(F):    23     20     23     21     16      9      2      6      4                                                                                                                                                                         1000mb GPH (m):     238    212    166    105      8     -8     30     86    145                                                                                                                                                                          950mb GPH (m):     643    620    577    516    417    395    429    485    542                                              950mb Temp ©:   -5.7   -2.9   -1.0   -1.5   -2.5   -6.5   -9.5   -9.6  -10.2                                              950mb Dewpt©:  -12.0   -4.2   -1.0   -1.6   -2.8   -7.4  -10.8  -11.6  -13.1                                              950mb RH (%):       61     91    100     99     98     94     90     86     79                                              950mb Dir:         121    115    109     76     42    355    339    337    341                                              950mb Speed(kt):    14     25     32     43     54     38     43     38     34                                                                                                                                                                          900mb GPH (m):    1064   1048   1008    948    846    815    845    900    958                                              900mb Temp ©:   -7.3   -3.1   -1.1    1.3   -2.2   -8.9  -11.0  -11.7   -9.6                                              900mb Dewpt©:  -19.7   -4.1   -1.1    1.3   -2.8   -9.7  -12.4  -13.9  -15.8                                              900mb RH (%):       37     93    100     99     96     93     89     84     61                                              900mb Dir:         163    162    142    106     61     17    356    348    357                                              900mb Speed(kt):    11     25     35     47     70     51     59     50     49                                                                                                                                                                          850mb GPH (m):    1510   1499   1464   1408   1302   1258   1285   1339   1402                                              850mb Temp ©:   -6.3   -5.6   -2.5   -0.3   -0.6   -8.3   -9.7   -9.5   -6.9                                              850mb Dewpt©:  -14.0   -9.3   -2.5   -0.3   -0.6   -9.1  -10.7  -12.0  -16.4                                              850mb RH (%):       55     75    100    100    100     95     93     82     47                                              850mb Dir:         217    188    170    122     81     42     22      9    355                                              850mb Speed(kt):    13     24     31     40     65     65     69     47     52                                                                                                                                                                          800mb GPH (m):    1985   1974   1942   1891   1787   1729   1753   1810   1876                                              800mb Temp ©:   -4.9   -5.2   -5.6   -1.7   -0.1   -8.2   -9.1   -7.3   -5.7                                              800mb Dewpt©:  -22.7   -9.5   -8.4   -1.7   -0.1   -8.9  -10.1  -10.4  -21.5                                              800mb RH (%):       24     71     81    100    100     95     92     79     28                                              800mb Dir:         245    224    169    132     96     60     23    354    356                                              800mb Speed(kt):    17     20     21     31     49     65     65     50     53                                                                                                                                                                          750mb GPH (m):    2492   2479   2447   2403   2303   2231   2254   2311   2381                                              750mb Temp ©:   -5.7   -6.2   -6.2   -3.7   -1.3   -7.0   -8.9   -8.4   -6.6                                              750mb Dewpt©:  -10.7  -10.9  -13.1   -4.1   -1.3   -7.3   -9.9  -11.8  -25.5                                              750mb RH (%):       68     70     58     97    100     97     92     77     21                                              750mb Dir:         260    229    183    143    105     75      7    356    351                                              750mb Speed(kt):    22     19     10     26     39     39     66     59     49                                                                                                                                                                          700mb GPH (m):    3029   3018   2986   2947   2851   2769   2785   2845   2917                                              700mb Temp ©:   -8.7   -8.2   -6.9   -5.5   -3.5   -7.6  -11.8   -9.9   -9.7                                              700mb Dewpt©:  -10.5  -10.1   -9.2   -6.0   -3.5   -7.7  -13.2  -13.9  -29.7                                              700mb RH (%):       87     86     84     96    100     99     90     73     18                                              700mb Dir:         274    226    229    170    117     72    360      0    348                                              700mb Speed(kt):    24     17      9     27     29     15     65     60     48                                                                                                                                                                          650mb GPH (m):    3601   3589   3562   3526   3435   3344   3348   3413   3484                                              650mb Temp ©:  -11.3  -11.2   -9.5   -8.5   -6.2   -9.6  -16.3  -13.3  -13.4                                              650mb Dewpt©:  -13.0  -12.9  -10.7   -9.4   -6.2   -9.9  -18.0  -17.2  -35.5                                              650mb RH (%):       87     87     91     93    100     98     87     72     14                                              650mb Dir:         274    242    248    174    129    348      2    355    343                                              650mb Speed(kt):    28     18     19     23     25     10     67     60     50                                                                                                                                                                          600mb GPH (m):    4212   4200   4177   4142   4057   3959   3947   4018   4088                                              600mb Temp ©:  -13.8  -14.3  -12.3  -11.6   -9.6  -12.4  -17.7  -16.4  -17.5                                              600mb Dewpt©:  -15.4  -15.9  -13.6  -12.7   -9.7  -12.9  -19.6  -20.3  -37.9                                              600mb RH (%):       87     88     90     92     99     97     85     72     16                                              600mb Dir:         273    254    240    192    137    351    355    352    338                                              600mb Speed(kt):    32     21     32     28     20     19     58     58     54                                                                                                                                                                          550mb GPH (m):    4869   4856   4838   4805   4724   4619   4597   4668   4733                                              550mb Temp ©:  -17.2  -17.2  -15.6  -15.0  -13.7  -15.6  -18.9  -19.9  -21.9                                              550mb Dewpt©:  -19.7  -20.5  -17.1  -16.3  -14.1  -16.2  -20.9  -24.2  -42.3                                              550mb RH (%):       82     76     88     90     97     95     84     69     15                                              550mb Dir:         269    256    241    211    137      6    357    346    335                                              550mb Speed(kt):    37     27     41     30     19     22     57     53     56                                                                                                                                                                          500mb GPH (m):    5577   5565   5551   5519   5442   5332   5303   5368   5427                                              500mb Temp ©:  -21.6  -20.7  -19.9  -19.6  -18.7  -20.0  -21.4  -24.7  -26.7                                              500mb Dewpt©:  -24.7  -28.2  -21.8  -21.4  -19.5  -21.4  -23.6  -29.5  -46.5                                              500mb RH (%):       77     52     85     86     93     89     83     65     15                                              500mb Dir:         264    259    242    221    141     20     11    338    331                                              500mb Speed(kt):    38     35     47     30     18     22     52     49     59                                                                                                                                                                          450mb GPH (m):    6345   6338   6324   6294   6219   6105   6073   6126   6179                                              450mb Temp ©:  -27.0  -25.1  -25.9  -25.1  -23.9  -25.4  -26.1  -29.6  -32.2                                              450mb Dewpt©:  -30.9  -35.9  -28.2  -27.2  -25.1  -27.6  -28.4  -34.1  -50.0                                              450mb RH (%):       70     37     81     83     90     82     81     66     17                                              450mb Dir:         264    259    240    214    149     34     21    332    328                                              450mb Speed(kt):    39     43     48     34     18     20     39     41     61                                                                                                                                                                          400mb GPH (m):    7183   7183   7166   7138   7067   6948   6914   6957   6998                                              400mb Temp ©:  -33.3  -31.5  -32.4  -31.0  -30.3  -31.5  -32.3  -35.4  -38.2                                              400mb Dewpt©:  -38.7  -38.1  -35.3  -33.4  -31.4  -34.6  -35.2  -38.9  -53.8                                              400mb RH (%):       60     53     76     80     90     74     76     71     19                                              400mb Dir:         264    256    238    205    151     60     29    326    325                                              400mb Speed(kt):    47     51     49     46     20     18     32     32     64                                                                                            

the ratios between hr 30 and 42 will be greater than 10:1 that I can assure you...

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if we assume (correctly) that the nam is likely both too amped, and too wet, we end up with a solution that is likely colder, less qpf, but a lot of snow. NAM could be right, doubt its as amped in real life. Has 3.55 for KNYC. If its higher than 3 I'd be surprised. In fact I'd guess were looking at 2.0-2.5 qpf most if not all frozen for NYC metro

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the models nailed Sandy and the November snowstorm...Those were two historic fall storms...We are living in interesting weather times...Enjoy the storm...

 

Its still in the future but man does this have the makings of something special.  Even if amounts dont surpass 2010/96/2003 etc its still something to watch unfold.

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Its still in the future but man does this have the makings of something special.  Even if amounts dont surpass 2010/96/2003 etc its still something to watch unfold.

every winter should have one good storm...It makes or brakes a winter...we remember the big storms like Feb. 1983 even though it was a mild winter on the whole...

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Is anyone forgetting, this is the NAM. The NAM is notorious for exploding the QPF, or drying the QPF in events. Hasn't been great this winter. Don't get too excited. 40" of snow in NJ is possible, but unlikely. Think about it, 9" of QPF off the Jersey shore. Does that even seem logical for this time of year? That would smash all-time 24hr precip records, and it's extremely rare to do so in February. Wait till GFS and the Euro. 

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Just wanted to point this out, but the city loses about 2 inches of qpf to stuff other then snow. Though its still a nice 12-16 on the nam for you guys.

 

 

Sshhhhh, submit to the hivemind! It's all snow! the NAM is our glorious leader!

 

I've been trying to say this for a while now and people are calling me out for being a troll.

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Just wanted to point this out, but the city loses about 2 inches of qpf to stuff other then snow. Though its still a nice 12-16 on the nam for you guys.

tombo I respectfully disagree. We do not lose 2in in qpf as rain/sleet on the nam. At least for KNYC

 

soundings that were posted show at most 1.0 lost as sleet/rain in NYC

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