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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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I think its safe to say that we should all do our best to enjoy this throughout the day. The majority of people in this forum are going to see a significant snowstorm in the winter season for the first time in two years....and we'll get to enjoy the day tracking it and watch the snow tonight.

 

So just enjoy it, don't worry about who's getting more snow or less snow. If Boston gets 35" and I get 12" I'll be stoked for them and happy that I was able to get a foot of snow. Last week at this time we were tracking 0.05" liquid on the high resolution models and snow showers.

 

And for the mods...we want to enjoy it too, so please think before you post.

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It's actually colder than 0z. We get over 1.25 qpf tonight into tomorrow. What more do you want?

i give up with you. the matching time stamp map at 850 is 100 pct warmer for you and me at 12z than at 0Z, believe what you want.

 

12Z

850t.12.0000.gif

0Z 

850t.24.0000.gif

 

Wasting my time arguing...

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Off of Norfolk VA

 

Station 44014
NDBC
Location:
36.611N 74.842W
Date: Fri, 8 Feb 2013 15:50:00 UTC
 

Significant Wave Height: 18.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (133°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.23 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 55.0 F
Dew Point: 53.8 F
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i give up with you. the matching time stamp map at 850 is 100 pct warmer for you and me at 12z than at 0Z, believe what you want.

 

12Z

 

0Z 

 

Wasting my time arguing...

 

 

But the 12z run is much, much wetter, and I just posted a skew-T for LGA that looked great at 20z! That's really early. We should probably change over by 21z, IMO. 

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I only follow the GFS on tuesdays when i need the weather from monday. A lil humor. It has been so bad with these southerm branch features over the past 15 years i just wish someone would b honest and say we dont hav the money to input constant real time data like euro. Instead of just 4x a day Pls correct if wrong or our resolution isnt as good. Image havin to b a private forecaster in boston ths past wk and the euro paints u a pic of a bomb and u look to ur mighty US tool and its sending the slp to bremuda. It misses these big time systems over and over again. Sandy was just embarrasing. But so were 5 blizzards 3 days out that i can think of off the top of my head

You guys hav to see the errors. Whats the consensus on the fix.

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What's up with that warm slot shooting NE into LI?

 

 

Hmm, yeah that is weird, and that's what Ace was alluding to. I don't know enough to say definitively that it can or cannot happen. 

 

It just seems odd to me that eastern Suffolk and the Twin Forks would be all snow, and Central Suffolk through Nassau would be rain. Therefore, I'm inclined to say it's wrong. 

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It's actually colder than 0z. We get over 1.25 qpf tonight into tomorrow. What more do you want?

i give up with you. the matching time stamp map at 850 is 100 pct warmer for you and me at 12z than at 0Z, believe what you want.

12Z

0Z

Wasting my time arguing...

It is without a doubt warmer....and the colder temps on the 00z are even BEFORE the colder air wraps in....compared with this 12z run AFTER the colder air wraps in....we would want it to be the opposite. So in analyzing this model, it is without a doubt warmer, BUT still a good amount. Not sure why there is even a disagreement ? Snow ? Yes. Warmer ? Yes lol
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I think Ace needs a timeout.  NYC hasn't had accumulating snow of more than 6" since Jan 2011.  Patience people, come on.

The radar looks fantastic regardless of what may or may not be occuring at 500 mb on the models in terms of the phase. The area of 0.25"+ rates continue to expand and move NW as well as a new area of 0.50"+ per hour popping up. We need that convection to build a bit east of the center and help raise the heights some.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N1P&rid=DOX&loop=yes

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i give up with you. the matching time stamp map at 850 is 100 pct warmer for you and me at 12z than at 0Z, believe what you want.

 

12Z

 

0Z 

 

Wasting my time arguing...

Lol, warmer but still snowing with high ratios for many, what's the problem then? If from the time the temperatures are cold enough to be all snow until this ends the qpf is 1.2, it's 12+ of snow in that time. 12:1 or 15:1 ratios easy for some and you near 18 inches in some cases. Don't say it isn't 1.2 from the time it is cold enough because that is untrue.

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thanks for posting that. is there one for JFK?

 

 

I don't have JFK right now (got LGA from a different source).

 

There definitely was a bit of a warm tongue in parts of LI on the mm5 verbatim, though, but if you look at the graphic that earthlight just posted, it shows a warm tongue in Nassau and Western Suffolk, yet 100% probability of frozen precipitation in the Twin Forks of LI...intuition would tell me that if there is a 100% probability of frozen precipitation on the Twin Forks, then there shouldn't be such a strong warm tongue in Nassau and Western Suffolk. 

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