bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The heaviest stuff should lift NNE and initiate the change back to snow this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think Ace needs a timeout. NYC hasn't had accumulating snow of more than 6" since Jan 2011. Patience people, come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well this is not your storm then i know...it was a tongue in cheek comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So RVC and Lynbrook are still looking good? And column collapse around 4pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not from what I've seen. This run is great for us. It has a lot more QPF than last night's run. It's easily over an inch of QPF for us AFTER 4 p.m. It looks like the WRF, but more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just light drizzle and wind and 33.3 still maybe .1 qpf wasted so far, not so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think its safe to say that we should all do our best to enjoy this throughout the day. The majority of people in this forum are going to see a significant snowstorm in the winter season for the first time in two years....and we'll get to enjoy the day tracking it and watch the snow tonight. So just enjoy it, don't worry about who's getting more snow or less snow. If Boston gets 35" and I get 12" I'll be stoked for them and happy that I was able to get a foot of snow. Last week at this time we were tracking 0.05" liquid on the high resolution models and snow showers. And for the mods...we want to enjoy it too, so please think before you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's actually colder than 0z. We get over 1.25 qpf tonight into tomorrow. What more do you want? i give up with you. the matching time stamp map at 850 is 100 pct warmer for you and me at 12z than at 0Z, believe what you want. 12Z 0Z Wasting my time arguing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Off of Norfolk VA Station 44014NDBCLocation: 36.611N 74.842WDate: Fri, 8 Feb 2013 15:50:00 UTC Significant Wave Height: 18.0 ftDominant Wave Period: 11 secMean Wave Direction: SE (133°)Atmospheric Pressure: 29.23 in and falling rapidlyAir Temperature: 55.0 FDew Point: 53.8 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sleet and snow pellets 150 ft above 3rd avenue at 86th st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sleet and snow pellets 150 ft above 3rd avenue at 86th st. what about at the street? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Skew-T for LGA at 20z from the mm5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i give up with you. the matching time stamp map at 850 is 100 pct warmer for you and me at 12z than at 0Z, believe what you want. 12Z 0Z Wasting my time arguing... But the 12z run is much, much wetter, and I just posted a skew-T for LGA that looked great at 20z! That's really early. We should probably change over by 21z, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what about at the street? couldn't tell you for sure...its sleet and snow pellets so I would think its coming down and not melting in the final 100ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is very cold and snowy most of the way through with another 2 or 3 chances at snowsyorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But the 12z run is much, much wetter, and I just posted a skew-T for LGA that looked great at 20z! That's really early. We should probably change over by 21z, IMO. What's up with that warm slot shooting NE into LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I only follow the GFS on tuesdays when i need the weather from monday. A lil humor. It has been so bad with these southerm branch features over the past 15 years i just wish someone would b honest and say we dont hav the money to input constant real time data like euro. Instead of just 4x a day Pls correct if wrong or our resolution isnt as good. Image havin to b a private forecaster in boston ths past wk and the euro paints u a pic of a bomb and u look to ur mighty US tool and its sending the slp to bremuda. It misses these big time systems over and over again. Sandy was just embarrasing. But so were 5 blizzards 3 days out that i can think of off the top of my head You guys hav to see the errors. Whats the consensus on the fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The MM5 seems to be picking up on a weird warm tongue through parts of Long Island as ace has mentioned between 800-925mb. You can see it here in this probability of frozen precipitation graphic. Collapses 3 hours later. http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2013020812/images_d2/boci.12.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What's up with that warm slot shooting NE into LI? Hmm, yeah that is weird, and that's what Ace was alluding to. I don't know enough to say definitively that it can or cannot happen. It just seems odd to me that eastern Suffolk and the Twin Forks would be all snow, and Central Suffolk through Nassau would be rain. Therefore, I'm inclined to say it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But the 12z run is much, much wetter, and I just posted a skew-T for LGA that looked great at 20z! That's really early. We should probably change over by 21z, IMO. thanks for posting that. is there one for JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's actually colder than 0z. We get over 1.25 qpf tonight into tomorrow. What more do you want? i give up with you. the matching time stamp map at 850 is 100 pct warmer for you and me at 12z than at 0Z, believe what you want. 12Z 0Z Wasting my time arguing... It is without a doubt warmer....and the colder temps on the 00z are even BEFORE the colder air wraps in....compared with this 12z run AFTER the colder air wraps in....we would want it to be the opposite. So in analyzing this model, it is without a doubt warmer, BUT still a good amount. Not sure why there is even a disagreement ? Snow ? Yes. Warmer ? Yes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think Ace needs a timeout. NYC hasn't had accumulating snow of more than 6" since Jan 2011. Patience people, come on. The radar looks fantastic regardless of what may or may not be occuring at 500 mb on the models in terms of the phase. The area of 0.25"+ rates continue to expand and move NW as well as a new area of 0.50"+ per hour popping up. We need that convection to build a bit east of the center and help raise the heights some. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N1P&rid=DOX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But the 12z run is much, much wetter, and I just posted a skew-T for LGA that looked great at 20z! That's really early. We should probably change over by 21z, IMO. sorry what time is 21z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 sorry what time is 21z? 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 tons of lightning going on near the storm center. kaboom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 By the way, what is the link for the MM5 site that you use ? Stony brook ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 12km also picking up on the warm tongue as well. I hope this doesn't happen, totals will be significantly lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i give up with you. the matching time stamp map at 850 is 100 pct warmer for you and me at 12z than at 0Z, believe what you want. 12Z 0Z Wasting my time arguing... Lol, warmer but still snowing with high ratios for many, what's the problem then? If from the time the temperatures are cold enough to be all snow until this ends the qpf is 1.2, it's 12+ of snow in that time. 12:1 or 15:1 ratios easy for some and you near 18 inches in some cases. Don't say it isn't 1.2 from the time it is cold enough because that is untrue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thanks for posting that. is there one for JFK? I don't have JFK right now (got LGA from a different source). There definitely was a bit of a warm tongue in parts of LI on the mm5 verbatim, though, but if you look at the graphic that earthlight just posted, it shows a warm tongue in Nassau and Western Suffolk, yet 100% probability of frozen precipitation in the Twin Forks of LI...intuition would tell me that if there is a 100% probability of frozen precipitation on the Twin Forks, then there shouldn't be such a strong warm tongue in Nassau and Western Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ok, so at 4pm to 6PM all of Long Island should be in the accumulating snow sector? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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