MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 its much warmer than last nights run. loads of wasted QPF No it isn't. How is this warm? http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2013020812/images_d2/slp.15.0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It all stems back to poor initialization and the complete ignorance of that is what will continue to doom the model. The NAM on the other hand is just a complete joke. Ouch. Really? You know this how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's an icy piercing of Doom because of the Moderate Snow and Sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS initialization was fine (check the contour interval). I just made a plot of the GFS analysis from production, at native resolution, from the master file: Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not true. Agreed. I do think it is under 1.2 though. Read elsewhere that it is .95 as snow but that may be incorrect, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's all in the Phl thread. Read it there. Nothing bad in what he said. just read it - nothing good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not sure I understand this post... HM was kind of referring and explaining as to why NYC area has no shot at the 24 -32 inch ranges that are being thrown out up in the NE area. 12-18 is still very much likely however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not true. to my comment? sure looks worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 HM was kind of referring and explaining as to why NYC area has no shot at the 24 -32 inch ranges that are being thrown out up in the NE area. 12-18 is still very much likely however. he does not say anything about 12-18 he said "major snow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 HM was kind of referring and explaining as to why NYC area has no shot at the 24 -32 inch ranges that are being thrown out up in the NE area. 12-18 is still very much likely however. I also read what he said and agree 12-18 is still reachable in the best banding in NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's headed ENE or NE...and to be honest it's GOOD that it doesn't head NNE....we need it to head NE to get the bands at the right angle later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar looks crazy down in the delmarva and snj region and then east off the coast of nj. 50-55 dbz echoes showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 just read it - nothing good either. This is going to be your biggest storm in 2 years...I mean what more do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No it isn't. How is this warm? http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2013020812/images_d2/slp.15.0000.gif how is this not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS initialization was fine (check the contour interval). I just made a plot of the GFS analysis from production, at native resolution, from the master file: Thank you. Yes...thought so ! Not sure why there is so much banter about the GFS being so off. It's clearly not, which was why its confusing when the claims are that it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is going to be your biggest storm in 2 years...I mean what more do you want? This FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No it isn't. How is this warm? http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2013020812/images_d2/slp.15.0000.gif i agree after hr 15 it is fine, but its warmer prior. 0Z last night had barely anything except snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ace, just quit it. did you look at the map? tell me how that isnt warmer than 0Z. you cant disregard something because it doesnt agree with your desired outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ace, just quit it. Cut it out man, really. He's doing nothing wrong and just posting sound evidence of what he is checking, and also checking to make sure this is correct with others. What is wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 he does not say anything about 12-18 he said "major snow". Yes we know he did not say that. I will say that is still very possible though. RGEM gives 1" all snow qpf with 15:1 likely ratios. Falls in with 12-18 does it not? Upton has 12+ with their 10am, so yeah 12-18 is a fair call for NYC, it's western boroughs and in extreme NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is going to be your biggest storm in 2 years...I mean what more do you want? what Boston's getting? LOL...you asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's headed ENE or NE...and to be honest it's GOOD that it doesn't head NNE....we need it to head NE to get the bands at the right angle later on Absolutely and that applies to mostly all our regions here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Cut it out man, really. He's doing nothing wrong and just posting sound evidence of what he is checking, and also checking to make sure this is correct with others. What is wrong with that? doesnt agree with his desires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The storm is really wrapping up now. The western side is nearly a perfect circle http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dox&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 did you look at the map? tell me how that isnt warmer than 0Z. you cant disregard something because it doesnt agree with your desired outcome? It's actually colder than 0z. We get over 1.25 qpf tonight into tomorrow. What more do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what Boston's getting? LOL...you asked. Well this is not your storm then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 to my comment? sure looks worse. Not from what I've seen. This run is great for us. It has a lot more QPF than last night's run. It's easily over an inch of QPF for us AFTER 4 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 All sleet now 78/287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it looks like us up in NNJ will stay snow the entire time which would be huge. I can confirm this. Rockaway has been all snow for the whole morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's actually colder than 0z. We get over 1.25 qpf tonight into tomorrow. What more do you want? Ant..don't let it bother you..i try to ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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