jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yikes.... lets see how many people in this thread acknowledge this post by HM It's certainly possible that this shifts a little too far east but judging by radar/sat loops now, and the low verifying west of where models last night took it, it's encouraging. No one's ever denied that we have the highest bust potential. I'm still thinking 12+ for us. If it fails, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No one in a position of authority really cares about its abysmal performance compared to the euro so it's the organization that is actually broken that tolerates such inferior garbage. Be sure to let NCEP know of how broken their organization is. While I'm most certainly not an expert on the subject, the point of data assimilation isn't just to reset the model with new obs but to combine obs and the background analysis field from the previous run to create what is considered to be the most accurate analysis possible that minimizes errors. Model analyses are not supposed to be identical to human-analyzed surface maps. I don't think much can actually be gained from analyzing very small differences between the two. Of course the ultimate track does end up mattering for situations like this but what you're seeing in that 00h frame is not all there is to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does that mean LI and NYC get more rain? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where did the Boxing day storm track in comparison to this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That would be awesome for us up here in the NW.. Seems like if that comes to fruition it would help a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 How about from Mt Vernon to 241st in the Bx? Thats still NYC right? Of course because that's the border. Although I'm a few miles from the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I guess I'll take my 2-4" and be happy I suppose. It's still so warm, 36F right now. Which was pretty much forecast and has little bearing on what happens later on this afternoon and tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does that mean LI and NYC get more rain? No we still changeover, but the precip shield is further west than the 12z models initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Does that mean LI and NYC get more rain? Not really at least imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MM5 is really nice for NYC later this afternoon into tomorrow morning. Over 1.20 QPF which is snow for later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 not sure I understand this post... It's all in the Phl thread. Read it there. Nothing bad in what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So the Euro was wrong.. 2.00 QPF of snow.. not anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not sure if this had been posted, this was as of 10:00AM from Upton Created: 02/08/13 10:05 AM EST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So the Euro was wrong.. 2.00 QPF of snow.. not anymore? I think the Euro had around 1.50 for the 0z run which is still great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 RGEM starts the changeover for the NYC around 3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Be sure to let NCEP know of how broken their organization is. While I'm most certainly not an expert on the subject, the point of data assimilation isn't just to reset the model with new obs but to combine obs and the background analysis field from the previous run to create what is considered to be the most accurate analysis possible that minimizes errors. Model analyses are not supposed to be identical to human-analyzed surface maps. I don't think much can actually be gained from analyzing very small differences between the two. Of course the ultimate track does end up mattering for situations like this but what you're seeing in that 00h frame is not all there is to it. The point is that the pressure and position matched up more closely to the 0z Euro forecast where they pay attention to the small details that make or break you in the scientific field. No model is expected to be perfect, but the euro consistently hits closer to the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So what time are we supposed to changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So what time are we supposed to changeover. RGEM and MM5 it around 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's all in the Phl thread. Read it there. Nothing bad in what he said. He was posting more for people in the Philly thread. The NAM was showing even Philadelphia getting into some intense banding and now that seems to be a low probability if you want to take the models verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MM5 is really nice for NYC later this afternoon into tomorrow morning. Over 1.20 QPF which is snow for later on. its much warmer than last nights run. loads of wasted QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 90/10 sleet snow upper east side. really raw out there, accumulating out on my balcony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Taint fest in Southern Somersex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 its much warmer than last nights run. loads of wasted QPF whats wrong with 1.25 all snow after changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's still snowing at a steady pace and sleet is mixing in. Still more snow than sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 MM5 is really nice for NYC later this afternoon into tomorrow morning. Over 1.20 QPF which is snow for later on. its much warmer than last nights run. loads of wasted QPF Not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not sure why they can't fix the GFS... gfs_namer_000_10m_wnd_precip.gif 90fwbg.gif The GFS initialization was fine (check the contour interval). I just made a plot of the GFS analysis from production, at native resolution, from the master file: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it looks like us up in NNJ will stay snow the entire time which would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 34/31 at cpk and it looks like the r/s has halted its northward movement. Things should start looking up pretty soon. I think bluewaves call of 18-21z is spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think best advice is to take a break and come back at 3pm NYC. Things will be fun tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So the Euro was wrong.. 2.00 QPF of snow.. not anymore? Backed down a tad at 0z with that unfortunately was 1.75 instead, not awful. At 0z though a lot was lost to non-snow as well much more than yesterday's 12z which yes is beyond maddening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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