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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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yikes....

 

lets see how many people in this thread acknowledge this post by HM

It's certainly possible that this shifts a little too far east but judging by radar/sat loops now, and the low verifying west of where models last night took it, it's encouraging. No one's ever denied that we have the highest bust potential. I'm still thinking 12+ for us. If it fails, so be it.

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No one in a position of authority really cares about its abysmal performance compared to the euro so it's

the organization that is actually broken that tolerates such inferior garbage.

 

:lol: Be sure to let NCEP know of how broken their organization is. While I'm most certainly not an expert on the subject, the point of data assimilation isn't just to reset the model with new obs but to combine obs and the background analysis field from the previous run to create what is considered to be the most accurate analysis possible that minimizes errors. Model analyses are not supposed to be identical to human-analyzed surface maps. I don't think much can actually be gained from analyzing very small differences between the two. Of course the ultimate track does end up mattering for situations like this but what you're seeing in that 00h frame is not all there is to it. 

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:lol: Be sure to let NCEP know of how broken their organization is. While I'm most certainly not an expert on the subject, the point of data assimilation isn't just to reset the model with new obs but to combine obs and the background analysis field from the previous run to create what is considered to be the most accurate analysis possible that minimizes errors. Model analyses are not supposed to be identical to human-analyzed surface maps. I don't think much can actually be gained from analyzing very small differences between the two. Of course the ultimate track does end up mattering for situations like this but what you're seeing in that 00h frame is not all there is to it. 

 

The point is that the pressure and position matched up more closely to the 0z Euro forecast where they pay attention to the 

small details that make or break you in the scientific field. No model is expected to be perfect, but the euro consistently

hits closer to the mark.

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