dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_vort_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_000_850_vort_ht.gif That is the gfs position of the low now...looks identical to where it really is actually It has been officially documented that it initialized too SE and was weak by 7mb, it really matters not what it shows after that in any aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From HM in Philly thread "All models agree that between 18z-21z, the northward motion of the southern stream s/w ends and the kick east happens. The initial "repelling" is common before a partial phase. It doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot for Boston but this is why major snowfall will not happen NYC and SW. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not sure why they can't fix the GFS... gfs_namer_000_10m_wnd_precip.gif 90fwbg.gif I don't think the GFS is "broken" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From HM in Philly thread "All models agree that between 18z-21z, the northward motion of the southern stream s/w ends and the kick east happens. The initial "repelling" is common before a partial phase. It doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot for Boston but this is why major snowfall will not happen NYC and SW. " yikes.... lets see how many people in this thread acknowledge this post by HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SV maps for the gfs has 8-12 NYC and 4-8 central jersey North shore Long Island is 8-12 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm glad I don't live in NYC anymore. It's really snowy out here at Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is the gfs position of the low now...looks identical to where it really is actually 12z is not 11am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yikes.... Major is what Boston is getting...6-12 is a good forecast for city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Precip just exploding to our south. I love the look of the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Not sure why they can't fix the GFS... It all stems back to poor initialization and the complete ignorance of that is what will continue to doom the model. The NAM on the other hand is just a complete joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm glad I don't live in NYC anymore. It's really snowy out here at Southern Westchester County. lmao.. Im sorry dude but I can throw a baseball from Mt Vernon to the Bronx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Major is what Boston is getting...6-12 is a good forecast for city 6-12 inches is a good snowfall. Biggest one in 2 years lol. I still think we can get more,especially if the banding sets up over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I like this from Albany: THERE IS SOME RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERNSTREAM SYSTEM ALSO IN PARTS OF WESTERN PA AND EASTERN OH. BASEDON THE MEAN FLOW SEEN IN 12Z UPPER DATA...THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIESTSNOW MAY BE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE WEST AND NORTH THANCURRENT FORECAST. LOTS OF CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINAS WHICH COULDCONTINUE THE ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING THAT COULD SHIFTTHE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/SNOW LINE AND DYNAMICSJUST A SLIGHT HAIR WEST AND NORTH OF CURRENT FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The storm has to completely move east for us to miss that deformation band. We get under that, we're looking at more then 12" for NYC. Maybe not 20, but I think more then 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yikes.... lets see how many people in this thread acknowledge this post by HM I guess it depends on how Major is defined? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From HM in Philly thread "All models agree that between 18z-21z, the northward motion of the southern stream s/w ends and the kick east happens. The initial "repelling" is common before a partial phase. It doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot for Boston but this is why major snowfall will not happen NYC and SW. " . If that happens and ill take hm's word for it, one of the best mets I've ever seen, that will really screw areas west and northwest of NYC big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yikes.... lets see how many people in this thread acknowledge this post by HM Here is his next post It was never really something you thought would happen anyway, so don't let it take you down. Things to look forward to are the frontogen bands. There is a very strong signal in the mid levels for positive frontogen 3z-9z from NE PA / NY down into SE PA / C NJ. Also, we have a saturated CSI layer, per 12z NAM, during the first portion of the night when wair air advection and LLJ is present (mainly before 4z). The snow accumulations are going to be funny with north to south based maximums where these bands develop and drift southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lmao.. Im sorry dude but I can throw a baseball from Mt Vernon to the Bronx.. Actually, the Climatology from Mount Vernon and The Bronx are staggering. Southern Bronx could have bare ground, but over here at Mount Vernon could have a couple inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SV maps for the gfs has 8-12 NYC and 4-8 central jersey North shore Long Island is 8-12 also Allsnow is the 4 to 8 along Monmouth cty? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6-12 inches is a good snowfall. Biggest one in 2 years lol. I still think we can get more,especially if the banding sets up over the area. Someone north and west of the city is going to be in a secondary jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I like this from Albany: THERE IS SOME RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALSO IN PARTS OF WESTERN PA AND EASTERN OH. BASED ON THE MEAN FLOW SEEN IN 12Z UPPER DATA...THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY BE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE WEST AND NORTH THAN CURRENT FORECAST. LOTS OF CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINAS WHICH COULD CONTINUE THE ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING THAT COULD SHIFT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/SNOW LINE AND DYNAMICS JUST A SLIGHT HAIR WEST AND NORTH OF CURRENT FORECAST. That would be awesome for us up here in the NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Allsnow is the 4 to 8 along Monmouth cty? Rossi Yes. Nws accumulations look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I guess it depends on how Major is defined? Rossi i'd say 10-12" is major i just hope HM is wrong...odds are against my hopeless wishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It all stems back to poor initialization and the complete ignorance of that is what will continue to doom the model. The NAM on the other hand is just a complete joke. I am sure that there are people lower down in the power structure that care, but they must not have any say on what goes on at the top. We would have never landed on the moon if we had the same attitude back in the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Actually, the Climatology from Mount Vernon and The Bronx are staggering. Southern Bronx could have bare ground, but over here at Mount Vernon could have a couple inches of snow. How about from Mt Vernon to 241st in the Bx? Thats still NYC right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I like this from Albany: THERE IS SOME RAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ALSO IN PARTS OF WESTERN PA AND EASTERN OH. BASED ON THE MEAN FLOW SEEN IN 12Z UPPER DATA...THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW MAY BE SHIFTING EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE WEST AND NORTH THAN CURRENT FORECAST. LOTS OF CONVECTION OFF THE CAROLINAS WHICH COULD CONTINUE THE ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING THAT COULD SHIFT THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/SNOW LINE AND DYNAMICS JUST A SLIGHT HAIR WEST AND NORTH OF CURRENT FORECAST. Does that mean LI and NYC get more rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i'd say 10-12" is major i just hope HM is wrong...odds are against my hopeless wishing Major to him is what Boston is getting. Are you seeing my posts? Here is what he said after It was never really something you thought would happen anyway, so don't let it take you down. Things to look forward to are the frontogen bands. There is a very strong signal in the mid levels for positive frontogen 3z-9z from NE PA / NY down into SE PA / C NJ. Also, we have a saturated CSI layer, per 12z NAM, during the first portion of the night when wair air advection and LLJ is present (mainly before 4z). The snow accumulations are going to be funny with north to south based maximums where these bands develop and drift southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I guess it depends on how Major is defined? Rossi Exactly. RGEM suggests 1" qpf of snow for NYC and areas as far west as extreme NE NJ with what will likely be 12,15:1 ratios. 12-15 inches is not 2 feet but it is high end moderate for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Here is his next post It was never really something you thought would happen anyway, so don't let it take you down. Things to look forward to are the frontogen bands. There is a very strong signal in the mid levels for positive frontogen 3z-9z from NE PA / NY down into SE PA / C NJ. Also, we have a saturated CSI layer, per 12z NAM, during the first portion of the night when wair air advection and LLJ is present (mainly before 4z). The snow accumulations are going to be funny with north to south based maximums where these bands develop and drift southward. not sure I understand this post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 from hour 9-15 on the mm5 we get around 1.2+ for city east with it still precipitating. beautiful look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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