blizzard of 2013 discussion

[uncle W]

here we are in February and are having temperature issues with this noreaster...There weren't any problems in early November when we picked up 6"...Goes to show you what a stronger primary low does...we need the comma head of this storm to be over us at its peak...if that happens we will see the foot or more predicted...

[ace0927]

With the system located somewhat south and west of the 12z NAM's idea and the GFS adjusting qpf a little to the west, there are some encouraging things. Still, one will need confirmation from later developments related to the storm's evolution and also the modeling. If the 12z ECMWF holds firm, that could provide a good signal as to what lies ahead. Even with the uncertainty that persists, this is likely to be the biggest snowstorm of the winter to date for parts of northern New Jersey, the NYC metro area, and, especially north and east of the NYC metro area.

thanks Don. 

[killabud]

Without seeming redundant what is the range in time for the columns to collapse on LI from earliest to latest?

general consensus seems to be sometime between 4-7

[SACRUS]

With the system located somewhat south and west of the 12z NAM's idea and the GFS adjusting qpf a little to the west, there are some encouraging things. Still, one will need confirmation from later developments related to the storm's evolution and also the modeling. If the 12z ECMWF holds firm, that could provide a good signal as to what lies ahead. Even with the uncertainty that persists, this is likely to be the biggest snowstorm of the winter to date for parts of northern New Jersey, the NYC metro area, and, especially north and east of the NYC metro area.

 

Yes indeed (the last 2 winters).. Aside from Freehold NJ. I would urge those worrying or frantically scurrying for good news on the guidance to sit back and follow the obs,sat, radar and pressure readings. Coastal storms of this nature are impossible to forecast changeovers and accumulations to the mile. So yes some will be disappointed and yes others will be pleasantly surprised, the rain may hold on longer than forecast or it may not but by 7pm tonight we should be enjoying the wonders of a bombing noreaster and see how it plays out....

[sferic]

Strong winds, light rain and 33.3 degrees here in Lynbrook  was high as 34.0 a half hour ago

[Kaner587]

comma head forming over VA. This thing is maturing for sure. That deform band forming over delmarva means business.

[IsentropicLift]

its surprising people are unimpressed. Just look at the WV imagery. You can see the cloud tops cooling and expanding over NE and NNY

What is amazing is that as of last night you still had a fairly large spread in guidance even though we were already in the near term. I think the point has been reached where the best tools out there are radar, infared and water vapor loops.

[jm1220]

ya they could really jackpot. What'll be interesting is that as the streams phase a 2nd heavy band develops right on the western side, so there will likely be a zone of subsidence between the main deform and the secondary one. NYC could easily end up here although so could western LI. 

Banding is always a crap shoot for us. Being on the western edge of the heavy stuff might actually play out well.

[IsentropicLift]

comma head forming over VA. This thing is maturing for sure. That deform band forming over delmarva means business.

0.25"+ per hour rates are expanding north and west which are both good signs

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DOX&product=N1P&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[SRRTA22]

The precip field is def starting to expand to the NW towards upper PA/upstate NY and look at that deform band in delaware....its just sitting there dumping buckets

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

There's >.5" of snow on the ground.

[bluewave]

Not sure why they can't fix the GFS...

 

 

[ace0927]

comma head forming over VA. This thing is maturing for sure. That deform band forming over delmarva means business.

huh? there is no precip over va?

[dbc]

I can see why some are calling for bust.. I just came from Hoboken NJ.. just 7 miles from here.. and it was flurries/rain/mix I don't know..nothing covered. Here in Cliffside (bergen county NJ). Everything is white.. and still snowing.

Nice! That's how I left it at 8am this morning. When I get back there at 2:30, I hope it still is that way lol.

[MJO812]

MM5

[Kaner587]

huh? there is no precip over va?

on wv ace

[Juliancolton]

Can any mets comment on whether that heavy banding over the Delmarva is truly due to deformation as many have suggested?

[Kaner587]

mm5 is beautiful. Gets most of us into nice banding. Looks snowier and slightly more tucked in than last night

[Kaner587]

mm5 looks to match up well with radar too.

[IsentropicLift]

For the 12z NAM bufkit

 

KHPN

 

130208/1400Z   2  07016KT  32.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
130208/1500Z   3  07018KT  31.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039    6:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
130208/1600Z   4  07019KT  31.5F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.042    5:1|  0.5|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.10   45| 55|  0
130208/1700Z   5  06019KT  31.9F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.054    5:1|  0.5|| 0.05|| 0.06|| 0.15    0|  0|100
130208/1800Z   6  06019KT  32.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058    5:1|  0.5|| 0.05|| 0.06|| 0.21    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130208/1900Z   7  05018KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081    5:1|  0.5|| 0.05|| 0.06|| 0.29    0|  0|100
130208/2000Z   8  05017KT  32.6F  SNPL    2:1| 0.2|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.091    4:1|  0.7|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 0.38   30| 65|  5
130208/2100Z   9  04016KT  32.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.103    5:1|  1.3|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 0.48   91|  9|  0
130208/2200Z  10  04014KT  31.9F  SNOW    9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117    6:1|  2.4|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 0.60  100|  0|  0
130208/2300Z  11  03015KT  31.7F  SNOW   12:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185    8:1|  4.6|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 0.78  100|  0|  0
130209/0000Z  12  02016KT  31.0F  SNOW   13:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135    9:1|  6.4|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 0.92  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0100Z  13  01015KT  29.9F  SNOW   13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094    9:1|  7.6|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.01  100|  0|  0
130209/0200Z  14  36014KT  29.0F  SNOW   14:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.135   10:1|  9.5|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.15  100|  0|  0
130209/0300Z  15  36015KT  28.3F  SNOW   16:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154   11:1| 11.8|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.30  100|  0|  0
130209/0400Z  16  35016KT  27.4F  SNOW   15:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099   11:1| 13.3|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.40  100|  0|  0
130209/0500Z  17  34018KT  25.8F  SNOW   18:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063   11:1| 14.4|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.46  100|  0|  0
130209/0600Z  18  34020KT  23.8F  SNOW   25:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053   12:1| 15.7|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.52  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0700Z  19  34020KT  21.5F  SNOW   24:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062   12:1| 17.2|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.58  100|  0|  0
130209/0800Z  20  34022KT  19.8F  SNOW   19:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052   13:1| 18.2|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.63  100|  0|  0
130209/0900Z  21  33023KT  19.1F  SNOW   15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023   13:1| 18.5|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.65  100|  0|  0
130209/1000Z  22  33024KT  18.9F  SNOW   19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   13:1| 18.8|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.67  100|  0|  0
130209/1100Z  23  33024KT  19.5F  SNOW   20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   13:1| 19.0|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.68  100|  0|  0
130209/1200Z  24  33023KT  20.0F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1| 19.0|| 0.17|| 0.06|| 1.68    0|  0|  0
 

KSWF

 

130208/1300Z   1  06009KT  26.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130208/1400Z   2  07011KT  27.8F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003    5:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00  100|  0|  0
130208/1500Z   3  08012KT  30.1F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005    6:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
130208/1600Z   4  08012KT  31.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    6:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
130208/1700Z   5  06013KT  31.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    7:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
130208/1800Z   6  04013KT  29.2F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    7:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130208/1900Z   7  04014KT  29.2F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055    7:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
130208/2000Z   8  04014KT  29.2F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058    7:1|  1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
130208/2100Z   9  04014KT  29.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068    8:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26  100|  0|  0
130208/2200Z  10  04014KT  29.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080    8:1|  2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34  100|  0|  0
130208/2300Z  11  03014KT  28.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086    8:1|  3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43  100|  0|  0
130209/0000Z  12  03015KT  27.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.082    8:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0100Z  13  02017KT  26.3F  SNOW   12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079    8:1|  5.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.59  100|  0|  0
130209/0200Z  14  02017KT  25.2F  SNOW   14:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073    9:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
130209/0300Z  15  01017KT  24.0F  SNOW   17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093   10:1|  7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0
130209/0400Z  16  36017KT  22.7F  SNOW   18:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124   11:1|  9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88  100|  0|  0
130209/0500Z  17  35018KT  21.1F  SNOW   18:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124   12:1| 12.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01  100|  0|  0
130209/0600Z  18  35018KT  19.7F  SNOW   19:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.105   13:1| 14.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0700Z  19  35019KT  18.8F  SNOW   19:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.097   13:1| 15.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.21  100|  0|  0
130209/0800Z  20  35019KT  18.2F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056   13:1| 16.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26  100|  0|  0
130209/0900Z  21  34019KT  18.4F  SNOW   13:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038   13:1| 17.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30  100|  0|  0
130209/1000Z  22  34018KT  19.1F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   13:1| 17.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.33  100|  0|  0
130209/1100Z  23  34017KT  19.8F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   13:1| 17.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.33  100|  0|  0
 

KMMU

 

130208/1300Z   1  06012KT  30.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130208/1400Z   2  06013KT  30.8F  SNOW    5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    5:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
130208/1500Z   3  06014KT  31.4F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.028    4:1|  0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.03   58| 42|  0
130208/1600Z   4  06015KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.032    4:1|  0.1|| 0.02|| 0.03|| 0.07    0|  0|100
130208/1700Z   5  05015KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.047    4:1|  0.1|| 0.02|| 0.08|| 0.11    0|  0|100
130208/1800Z   6  05016KT  31.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.05|| 0.048    4:1|  0.1|| 0.02|| 0.13|| 0.16    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130208/1900Z   7  05016KT  31.5F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.055    4:1|  0.1|| 0.02|| 0.19|| 0.22    0|  0|100
130208/2000Z   8  04016KT  31.9F  SNPL    2:1| 0.1|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.074    2:1|  0.2|| 0.15|| 0.19|| 0.29   17| 83|  0
130208/2100Z   9  03014KT  31.5F  SNPL    8:1| 0.7|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.086    5:1|  1.0|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 0.38   83| 17|  0
130208/2200Z  10  03013KT  30.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081    6:1|  1.7|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 0.46  100|  0|  0
130208/2300Z  11  02013KT  30.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099    7:1|  2.5|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 0.56  100|  0|  0
130209/0000Z  12  02014KT  30.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060    7:1|  3.0|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 0.62  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0100Z  13  01013KT  30.1F  SNOW   11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035    7:1|  3.4|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 0.65  100|  0|  0
130209/0200Z  14  36012KT  28.8F  SNOW   15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052    8:1|  4.2|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 0.70  100|  0|  0
130209/0300Z  15  35012KT  27.6F  SNOW   17:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101    9:1|  5.9|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 0.80  100|  0|  0
130209/0400Z  16  35013KT  26.5F  SNOW   17:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120   11:1|  7.9|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 0.92  100|  0|  0
130209/0500Z  17  34015KT  25.1F  SNOW   16:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098   11:1|  9.5|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 1.02  100|  0|  0
130209/0600Z  18  34016KT  24.0F  SNOW   19:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065   12:1| 10.8|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 1.09  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0700Z  19  34016KT  23.1F  SNOW   19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067   12:1| 12.1|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 1.15  100|  0|  0
130209/0800Z  20  34018KT  22.4F  SNOW   17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063   13:1| 13.2|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 1.22  100|  0|  0
130209/0900Z  21  33018KT  21.3F  SNOW   12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038   13:1| 13.6|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 1.26  100|  0|  0
130209/1000Z  22  33018KT  21.3F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017   13:1| 13.9|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 1.27  100|  0|  0
130209/1100Z  23  33017KT  22.0F  SNOW   15:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006   13:1| 13.9|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 1.28  100|  0|  0
130209/1200Z  24  32017KT  22.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1| 13.9|| 0.17|| 0.19|| 1.28    0|  0|  0
 

KLGA

 

130208/1400Z   2  06013KT  33.0F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   69| 10| 21
130208/1500Z   3  06016KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07    0|  0|100
130208/1600Z   4  06017KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10    0|  0|100
130208/1700Z   5  05018KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16    0|  0|100
130208/1800Z   6  05017KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130208/1900Z   7  04018KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28    0|  0|100
130208/2000Z   8  04017KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39    0|  0|100
130208/2100Z   9  04016KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.143    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53    0|  0|100
130208/2200Z  10  03015KT  33.2F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68   73|  0| 27
130208/2300Z  11  02015KT  32.3F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129    9:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81   90| 10|  0
130209/0000Z  12  02016KT  32.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 0.121    9:1|  1.2|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 0.93    5| 94|  1
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0100Z  13  01015KT  31.9F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.097   10:1|  2.3|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.03  100|  0|  0
130209/0200Z  14  36013KT  30.1F  SNOW   14:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131   11:1|  4.1|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.16  100|  0|  0
130209/0300Z  15  35014KT  29.2F  SNOW   17:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.139   13:1|  6.4|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.30  100|  0|  0
130209/0400Z  16  35014KT  28.1F  SNOW   16:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093   13:1|  7.9|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.39  100|  0|  0
130209/0500Z  17  34016KT  26.7F  SNOW   14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067   14:1|  8.9|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.46  100|  0|  0
130209/0600Z  18  34018KT  24.9F  SNOW   15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053   14:1|  9.6|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.51  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0700Z  19  34018KT  22.9F  SNOW   21:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061   14:1| 11.0|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.57  100|  0|  0
130209/0800Z  20  34018KT  21.5F  SNOW   17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064   14:1| 12.0|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.64  100|  0|  0
130209/0900Z  21  33019KT  20.6F  SNOW   16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043   14:1| 12.7|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.68  100|  0|  0
130209/1000Z  22  33019KT  20.6F  SNOW   20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   15:1| 13.2|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.71  100|  0|  0
130209/1100Z  23  33019KT  21.3F  SNOW   20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020   15:1| 13.6|| 0.24|| 0.00|| 1.73  100|  0|  0
 

KJFK

 

130208/1300Z   1  06013KT  33.9F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01   56|  0| 44
130208/1400Z   2  06014KT  33.3F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04   48| 11| 40
130208/1500Z   3  06018KT  33.7F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09    0|  0|100
130208/1600Z   4  06017KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13    0|  0|100
130208/1700Z   5  05018KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18    0|  0|100
130208/1800Z   6  05018KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130208/1900Z   7  04019KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31    0|  0|100
130208/2000Z   8  04019KT  34.1F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44    0|  0|100
130208/2100Z   9  04018KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.62    0|  0|100
130208/2200Z  10  03017KT  33.9F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.187    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81   20| 18| 62
130208/2300Z  11  02018KT  33.2F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.247    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.05    5| 49| 47
130209/0000Z  12  02018KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18    0|  0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0100Z  13  01017KT  32.4F  SNOW   10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119   10:1|  1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.30   89|  0| 11
130209/0200Z  14  36014KT  30.8F  SNOW   13:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.144   12:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.44  100|  0|  0
130209/0300Z  15  35015KT  29.7F  SNOW   15:1| 2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.137   13:1|  5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.58  100|  0|  0
130209/0400Z  16  35016KT  28.7F  SNOW   13:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080   13:1|  6.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.66  100|  0|  0
130209/0500Z  17  34017KT  27.2F  SNOW   12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063   13:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.72  100|  0|  0
130209/0600Z  18  34019KT  25.4F  SNOW   15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052   13:1|  7.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.78  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130209/0700Z  19  34018KT  23.4F  SNOW   22:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061   14:1|  9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.84  100|  0|  0
130209/0800Z  20  34019KT  21.6F  SNOW   19:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068   14:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.91  100|  0|  0
130209/0900Z  21  34019KT  20.6F  SNOW   16:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051   14:1| 11.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.96  100|  0|  0
130209/1000Z  22  33020KT  20.2F  SNOW   19:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   15:1| 11.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.99  100|  0|  0
130209/1100Z  23  33020KT  20.7F  SNOW   22:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030   15:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.02  100|  0|  0
130209/1200Z  24  33019KT  21.6F  SNOW   17:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008   15:1| 12.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.03  100|  0|  0
 

[sferic]

Shame about Long Island losing .5 to 1.0 QPF

[bluewave]

Can any mets comment on whether that heavy banding over the Delmarva is truly due to deformation as many have suggested?

 

that's the CCB getting started right on schedule.

[WintersGrasp]

Not sure why they can't fix the GFS...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_vort_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_000_850_vort_ht.gif

That is the gfs position of the low now...looks identical to where it really is actually

[dbc]

Shame about Long Island losing .5 to 1.0 QPF

It applies to plenty of us not just Long Island. Very frustrating. Hoping it's wrong but not looking likely.

[Kaner587]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_vort_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_000_850_vort_ht.gif

That is the gfs position of the low now...looks identical to where it really is actually

just 7mb too weak lol

[MJO812]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_vort_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_000_850_vort_ht.gif

That is the gfs position of the low now...looks identical to where it really is actually

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/mobile.php

[jm1220]

that's the CCB getting started right on schedule.

Judging by its motion, it would have to take a really hard right turn to miss most of us. It's heading just east of north right now.

[IsentropicLift]

Can any mets comment on whether that heavy banding over the Delmarva is truly due to deformation as many have suggested?

Take our word for it, that's solid deformation banding occuring. Just take a look at the hourly estimated precip rates. That shows the banding better, which has just cleared the Jersey coast btw and continues to move NW

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N1P&rid=DOX&loop=yes

[IsentropicLift]

Shame about Long Island losing .5 to 1.0 QPF

You're still going to do good out that way, Easily 12"+

[bluewave]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_vort_ht&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_000_850_vort_ht.gif

That is the gfs position of the low now...looks identical to where it really is actually

 

The actual center is NW and 7 mb deeper. that's why the radar echoes are further west over the delmarva now

instead of east.