yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS with a MUCH MUCH better look for our area folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at the water vapor, the northern stream and southern stream are starting to join together. The phase is occuring, as stated by baroclinic in the NE thread....This is what we want people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Rain and sleet in westfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yup...not even really close either. 30+ amounts nearly 30% less areawide besides the jackpot aaaaah the GFS got a clue - in line with the other models lighter comma head and CCB but a much better look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1.25+ on gfs for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wouldn't the phase cause the precipitation shield to blow up and expand? its not like the phase occurs over 1 second and the thing goes bonkers. Its a process that takes time and at some point yes the precipitation shield will expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS ticks west but is slightly warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 animation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 gfs looks solid...0.75+ frozen and its likely a little too dry. Compromise between the nam would be a good move I'd think. And I would think this should end some of the hysteria of this moving way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I would think close to a inch of that is frozen for city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS is better but it takes a wide swing right off the Delmarva. The southern stream wave is permitted to escape some to the east. I'm not buying it. If it develops spurious convection east of it and then lurches the low east, throw it out immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wouldn't the phase cause the precipitation shield to blow up and expand? Basically what it means is that the CCB should be very strong already by the time it makes it up here. In my opinon based off the current trends the phase is already ongoing. The models want to keep the western side weak until it gets up this way before building it up at the last minute and giving us a good thumping on the back side. The radar in my opinion matches the 00z NAM best. Just compare the radar out of Norfolk to the image below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 if this is what we're looking at come late tonight into early am, many weenies will be smiling http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/proving-ground/nssl_abi/ani_js/abi_band11.html That looks fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just looking at radar and WV loops you can clearly see that the phase is already occuring. The GFS is better but it takes a wide swing right off the Delmarva. The southern stream wave is permitted to escape some to the east. I'm not buying it. If the phase is occurring now but the current GFS is showing the southern stream escaping east off the delmarva does it mean the current GFS is wrong in it's depiction of escaping the southern stream? In other words is that escape before the phase occurs hence making the GFS wrong to escape it considering the phase is already occurring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What is the earliest the column collapses over Long Island and brings in the accumulating stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS tends to underdo precip amounts in really dynamic systems like this. I really like the Euro in these situations, so I'll go with that for the time being for general guidance for me. NAM is just a bit too comical, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 gfs looks solid...0.75+ frozen and its likely a little too dry. Compromise between the nam would be a good move I'd think. And I would think this should end some of the hysteria of this moving way east Agreed. It'll will all come down to how widespread and long the deform and enhanced banding occurs. N-NJ(northern Middlesex)/NYC : look good for 8 up to a foot or more west to east C-NJ (down to i-195) : 4 - 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Fighting sleet/snow now at 287/78 intersection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow that's pretty much a perfect match. I've been saying all morning that the 00z NAM knows what's up in terms of track and phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS ticks west buts is slightly warmer With the system located somewhat south and west of the 12z NAM's idea and the GFS adjusting qpf a little to the west, there are some encouraging things. Still, one will need confirmation from later developments related to the storm's evolution and also the modeling. If the 12z ECMWF holds firm, that could provide a good signal as to what lies ahead. Even with the uncertainty that persists, this is likely to be the biggest snowstorm of the winter to date for parts of northern New Jersey, the NYC metro area, and, especially north and east of the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 its surprising people are unimpressed. Just look at the WV imagery. You can see the cloud tops cooling and expanding over NE and NNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can Nassau County still eek out a sold foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can Nassau County still eek out a sold foot? Still very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can Nassau County still eek out a sold foot? I still think 12+ for our immediate area, maybe 15 if the banding really plays out. Best spots on Long Island would probably be northern Suffolk, maybe some 20" amounts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Baroclinic Instability on the NE forum is quite encouraged thus far and says to basically take the Euro last night as is. I strongly believe any east shifts are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS initialization was 7 mb too high with the pressure and SE of the actual low position so as expected this is a Euro and NAM scenario for us. Kudos to the Euro for seeing way before any of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If the phase is occurring now but the current GFS is showing the southern stream escaping east off the delmarva does it mean the current GFS is wrong in it's depiction of escaping the southern stream? In other words is that escape before the phase occurs hence making the GFS wrong to escape it considering the phase is already occurring? So far both the GFS and the NAM have trended more amplified with the southern stream wave but then flatten it out as time moves on. Why this is occuring is beyond my level of expertise. It certainly has every look of an intense noreaster at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 is everyone willing to take the your pen and sign on for your 4-8 central jersey, 8-12 nyc/LI, north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I still think 12+ for our immediate area, maybe 15 if the banding really plays out. Best spots on Long Island would probably be northern Suffolk, maybe some 20" amounts there. ya they could really jackpot. What'll be interesting is that as the streams phase a 2nd heavy band develops right on the western side, so there will likely be a zone of subsidence between the main deform and the secondary one. NYC could easily end up here although so could western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Without seeming redundant what is the range in time for the columns to collapse on LI from earliest to latest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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