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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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Wouldn't the phase cause the precipitation shield to blow up and expand?

Basically what it means is that the CCB should be very strong already by the time it makes it up here. In my opinon based off the current trends the phase is already ongoing. The models want to keep the western side weak until it gets up this way before building it up at the last minute and giving us a good thumping on the back side. The radar in my opinion matches the 00z NAM best. Just compare the radar out of Norfolk to the image below.

 

nam_namer_015_sim_radar.gif

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Just looking at radar and WV loops you can clearly see that the phase is already occuring.

 

The GFS is better but it takes a wide swing right off the Delmarva. The southern stream wave is permitted to escape some to the east. I'm not buying it.

If the phase is occurring now but the current GFS is showing the southern stream escaping east off the delmarva does it mean the current GFS is wrong in it's depiction of escaping the southern stream? In other words is that escape before the phase occurs hence making the GFS wrong to escape it considering the phase is already occurring?

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gfs looks solid...0.75+ frozen and its likely a little too dry. Compromise between the nam would be a good move I'd think. And I would think this should end some of the hysteria of this moving way east

 

 

Agreed.  It'll will all come down to how widespread and long the deform and enhanced banding occurs. 

 

 

N-NJ(northern Middlesex)/NYC : look good for 8 up to a foot or more west to east

C-NJ (down to i-195) : 4 - 8

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GFS ticks west buts is slightly warmer

 

With the system located somewhat south and west of the 12z NAM's idea and the GFS adjusting qpf a little to the west, there are some encouraging things. Still, one will need confirmation from later developments related to the storm's evolution and also the modeling. If the 12z ECMWF holds firm, that could provide a good signal as to what lies ahead. Even with the uncertainty that persists, this is likely to be the biggest snowstorm of the winter to date for parts of northern New Jersey, the NYC metro area, and, especially north and east of the NYC metro area.

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If the phase is occurring now but the current GFS is showing the southern stream escaping east off the delmarva does it mean the current GFS is wrong in it's depiction of escaping the southern stream? In other words is that escape before the phase occurs hence making the GFS wrong to escape it considering the phase is already occurring?

So far both the GFS and the NAM have trended more amplified with the southern stream wave but then flatten it out as time moves on. Why this is occuring is beyond my level of expertise. It certainly has every look of an intense noreaster at the moment.

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I still think 12+ for our immediate area, maybe 15 if the banding really plays out. Best spots on Long Island would probably be northern Suffolk, maybe some 20" amounts there.

ya they could really jackpot. What'll be interesting is that as the streams phase a 2nd heavy band develops right on the western side, so there will likely be a zone of subsidence between the main deform and the secondary one. NYC could easily end up here although so could western LI. 

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