jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We change back to snow between 3-4 pm for the main event tonight. cld8.gif cld9.gif And keep in mind that often the models are too slow in cooling us down in very heavy precip situations. This is going to crash and in a big way. A foot plus is definitely still on the table for most. I'm more concerned about my calls for western locations but we'll have to see where banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, this storm looks like it's moving North right now. just follow the maps Snow88 has posted, its clearly moving east of north (ever so slightly) from HSE to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 just follow the maps Snow88 has posted, its clearly moving east of north (ever so slightly) from HSE to the NEIf you follow the SLP center, it says otherwise. The isobars are closely pushing NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And keep in mind that often the models are too slow in cooling us down in very heavy precip situations. This is going to crash and in a big way. A foot plus is definitely still on the table for most. I'm more concerned about my calls for western locations but we'll have to see where banding sets up.Yes and keep in mind that we need to wait for the dynamics to kick in and the precip over the area now is rather light, once the heavier precip begins moving in, temps should fall rather quickly. EDIT: sorry for the typos - on phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really don't understand some of you. It is as if you can't bear to hear that the models have continued to shift east and later with the full development of system. When the NAM showed ridiculous amounts, it is the same people that declared this epic and got in their heads the idea that this could be a 2 foot snowstorm for our area. I personally never felt it was on the table and I'm ridiculed ? Sorry if it is not what you want to hear, and actually I will now post less to be so kind...but I think the posts that many of you are making about how far off the gfs is, etc.....are much more useless and now much more senseless....as the gfs was clearly on to something ! (Not ON something lol)....I was hoping for this one too so I'm sorry if its painful to hear that it shifted east, etc....but it DID. Staring at the area of low pressure and becoming delusional over how it is moving will not help. It is developing and moving as modeled and we are in line for close to or maybe just under a foot if snow. I said I thought 11-14" and supposedly I was being extremely negative and all....but now we very likely will barely get that. So again, I'm sorry if I've annoyed many of you and I will listless, but just realize that your senseless banter of how the gfs was horrible etc now is clearly just banter too and not "educated bashing". Please put your location in your profile. Perhaps that will give better context to your posts and people would be less inclined to think you are a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that is well south of the 12Z NAM's placement at 15Z (edited from 3Z, my mistake) Perhaps holding back the vort more. May be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 btw ace just took a look at the 12z nam 3hr prog and the low position is about 50 miles east northeast and several mb's too weak. So its actually a lot better that its further sw. WOW this thing seems awfully tucked close to the coast. Cant help but to mirror it to last nights NAM and yesterdays trends. DEFINITELY not east like the GFS was putting it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 People will be going NUTS when this happens lol....heavy snow developing over NYC while all of western NJ is dry! Haha It fills in right after and it snows until 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Guys, sit back and watch this baby unfold. Realize that with this bombing coastals, the biggest surprises are typically on the western edge of the heaviest precip shield. The difference between an 8" storm and a 16" storm is oftentimes a few hours underneath a heavy CSI band - models have a very difficult time resolving these features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And keep in mind that often the models are too slow in cooling us down in very heavy precip situations. This is going to crash and in a big way. A foot plus is definitely still on the table for most. I'm more concerned about my calls for western locations but we'll have to see where banding sets up. Agreed, I think eastern areas of the city and east are fine, I'm just concerned areas west are going to end up like Western NJ and the Lehigh Valley during the boxing day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 btw ace just took a look at the 12z nam 3hr prog and the low position is about 50 miles east northeast and several mb's too weak. So its actually a lot better that its further sw. yes, that is what i posted (put the wrong time stamp on the post however)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Perhaps holding back the vort more. May be a good sign. what downstream effects this has remains to be seen but at this juncture it is absolutely a good sign. If the southern stream vort was NE of what was modeled we be in deep deep doo doo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you follow the SLP center, it says otherwise. The isobars are closely pushing NNE. isnt that EXACTLY what I wrote, east of north, ever so slightly??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Perhaps holding back the vort more. May be a good sign. could just be that the NAM was a bit to quick with the low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 isnt that EXACTLY what I wrote, east of north, ever so slightly??? I think people are assuming all your posts are pessimistic radar hallucinations. as long as you keep those at bay you're generally knowledgable (kidding btw, well half kidding at least) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Guys, sit back and watch this baby unfold. Realize that with this bombing coastals, the biggest surprises are typically on the western edge of the heaviest precip shield. The difference between an 8" storm and a 16" storm is oftentimes a few hours underneath a heavy CSI band - models have a very difficult time resolving these features. as seen by the Boxing Day storm...NYC east was supposed to do and C NJ (Earthlight) got the best snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Mods.. You can delete this post but I just wanted to say... you should really hand out tylenol when reading this thread. My god my head hurts seriously.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 if this is what we're looking at come late tonight into early am, many weenies will be smiling http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/proving-ground/nssl_abi/ani_js/abi_band11.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hey I'm sure not many even saw this....http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_141_1000_500_thick.gif Another snowstorm next Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 as seen by the Boxing Day storm...NYC east was supposed to do and C NJ (Earthlight) got the best snows yup...not even really close either. 30+ amounts nearly 30% less areawide besides the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just looking at radar and WV loops you can clearly see that the phase is already occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think people are assuming all your posts are pessimistic radar hallucinations. as long as you keep those at bay you're generally knowledgable (kidding btw, well half kidding at least) its funny - people only get a rise out of my neg posts...when i post substance it gets ignored...ive made 77 posts( i know because i was at exactly 1600) since 830PM last night and only the 3 or 4 neg ones have been responded by the general populous here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS at 3 holding back with a stronger vort. Much better look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 if this is what we're looking at come late tonight into early am, many weenies will be smiling http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/proving-ground/nssl_abi/ani_js/abi_band11.html Gorgeous!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Agreed, I think eastern areas of the city and east are fine, I'm just concerned areas west are going to end up like Western NJ and the Lehigh Valley during the boxing day storm I am concerned somewhat about places like Allentown and the northern Philly suburbs over to Trenton, the east shift might be much for them, but I still think most of the NYC area is fine. We should see the dynamics and wrap-around work in later today. And nowcasting is useful here-I'm liking the intensity and positioning of the low thus far. Huge difference from the out to lunch GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Mods.. You can delete this post but I just wanted to say... you should really hand out tylenol when reading this thread. My god my head hurts seriously.. Please use the report button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just looking at radar and WV loops you can clearly see that the phase is already occuring. Wouldn't the phase cause the precipitation shield to blow up and expand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That banding near the Delmarva and even further onshore is extremely exciting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gfs looks pretty solid alot like euro tad drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS at 3 holding back with a stronger vort. Much better look. The GFS is better but it takes a wide swing right off the Delmarva. The southern stream wave is permitted to escape some to the east. I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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