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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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We change back to snow between 3-4 pm for the main event tonight.

 

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And keep in mind that often the models are too slow in cooling us down in very heavy precip situations. This is going to crash and in a big way. A foot plus is definitely still on the table for most. I'm more concerned about my calls for western locations but we'll have to see where banding sets up.

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And keep in mind that often the models are too slow in cooling us down in very heavy precip situations. This is going to crash and in a big way. A foot plus is definitely still on the table for most. I'm more concerned about my calls for western locations but we'll have to see where banding sets up.

Yes and keep in mind that we need to wait for the dynamics to kick in and the precip over the area now is rather light, once the heavier precip begins moving in, temps should fall rather quickly. EDIT: sorry for the typos - on phone.
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I really don't understand some of you. It is as if you can't bear to hear that the models have continued to shift east and later with the full development of system. When the NAM showed ridiculous amounts, it is the same people that declared this epic and got in their heads the idea that this could be a 2 foot snowstorm for our area. I personally never felt it was on the table and I'm ridiculed ? Sorry if it is not what you want to hear, and actually I will now post less to be so kind...but I think the posts that many of you are making about how far off the gfs is, etc.....are much more useless and now much more senseless....as the gfs was clearly on to something ! (Not ON something lol)....I was hoping for this one too so I'm sorry if its painful to hear that it shifted east, etc....but it DID. Staring at the area of low pressure and becoming delusional over how it is moving will not help. It is developing and moving as modeled and we are in line for close to or maybe just under a foot if snow. I said I thought 11-14" and supposedly I was being extremely negative and all....but now we very likely will barely get that. So again, I'm sorry if I've annoyed many of you and I will listless, but just realize that your senseless banter of how the gfs was horrible etc now is clearly just banter too and not "educated bashing".

 

Please put your location in your profile.  Perhaps that will give better context to your posts and people would be less inclined to think you are a troll.

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btw ace just took a look at the 12z nam 3hr prog and the low position is about 50 miles east northeast and several mb's too weak. So its actually a lot better that its further sw.

WOW this thing seems awfully tucked close to the coast. Cant help but to mirror it to last nights NAM and yesterdays trends. DEFINITELY not east like the GFS was putting it out to be.

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Guys, sit back and watch this baby unfold.  Realize that with this bombing coastals, the biggest surprises are typically on the western edge of the heaviest precip shield.  The difference between an 8" storm and a 16" storm is oftentimes a few hours underneath a heavy CSI band - models have a very difficult time resolving these features. 

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And keep in mind that often the models are too slow in cooling us down in very heavy precip situations. This is going to crash and in a big way. A foot plus is definitely still on the table for most. I'm more concerned about my calls for western locations but we'll have to see where banding sets up.

Agreed, I think eastern areas of the city and east are fine, I'm just concerned areas west are going to end up like Western NJ and the Lehigh Valley during the boxing day storm

NJSnow_20101226.png

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btw ace just took a look at the 12z nam 3hr prog and the low position is about 50 miles east northeast and several mb's too weak. So its actually a lot better that its further sw.

yes, that is what i posted (put the wrong time stamp on the post however)...

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Guys, sit back and watch this baby unfold.  Realize that with this bombing coastals, the biggest surprises are typically on the western edge of the heaviest precip shield.  The difference between an 8" storm and a 16" storm is oftentimes a few hours underneath a heavy CSI band - models have a very difficult time resolving these features. 

as seen by the Boxing Day storm...NYC east was supposed to do and C NJ (Earthlight) got the best snows

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I think people are assuming all your posts are pessimistic radar hallucinations. as long as you keep those at bay you're generally knowledgable  (kidding btw, well half kidding at least)

its funny - people only get a rise out of my neg posts...when i post substance it gets ignored...ive made 77 posts( i know because i was at exactly 1600) since 830PM last night and only the 3 or 4 neg ones have been responded by the general populous here...

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Agreed, I think eastern areas of the city and east are fine, I'm just concerned areas west are going to end up like Western NJ and the Lehigh Valley during the boxing day storm

NJSnow_20101226.png

I am concerned somewhat about places like Allentown and the northern Philly suburbs over to Trenton, the east shift might be much for them, but I still think most of the NYC area is fine. We should see the dynamics and wrap-around work in later today. And nowcasting is useful here-I'm liking the intensity and positioning of the low thus far. Huge difference from the out to lunch GFS.

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