nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Zucker....East NY Brooklyn?, I pass Linden Blvd on the way to my school! Alot of absentees today? Oh wow...yeah I'm a special ed teacher at PS/IS 89 (Cypress Hills Community School). The school is on the corner of Warwick and Atlantic Ave. It's a great place to work. I live in Westchester, however, at least for now. Most people are here actually. It's just a light snow/rain mix at the present time. Very light precip so far, maybe a few hundredths down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar out of Dover now shows an area of 50dbz+ banding building over the Delmarva. The precip shield is eroding slightly on the NW flank thanks to subsidence and the entire precip shield is consolidating some. All signs of an intensifying system and the formation of a nice CCB. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dox&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im telling you guys, this storm is moving more North then anything as of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you have access the the correlation coefficient, you can see the rain snow line....it is located in Western Middlesex county. NW of that line is snow, south and east mix. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm no expert but based off this radar loop it appears that the center is close to being completely closed off http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=akq&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'll say it again...for ANYONE using an iPhone, iPad, etc....RADARSCOPE is an absolutely INCREDIBLE app. Super-res radar, tons of extra goodies, correlation coefficient....updates fast. The best 9.99 you will EVER spend, please trust me and get it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The storm's wind field is slightly N&W of the SLP center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree....precip lost ahead of CCB is more or less just a few inches lost to rain. It is really more about where the heaviest banding sets up, not precip type...because if/when it sets up over us, temps drop below freezing and we accumulate quickly what will be important is what type of ratios can we squeeze out of the CCB/deform bands....my guess is there will be an inch or less qpf after the switch over (expect C and E LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 from baroclinic instability in the sne thread "The 12z ECMWF may shift a very slight bit east, but this storm is clearly becoming phased with the upper low as the southern low has recently taken a hard left/northward turn, the cloud field is expanding and cooling over SNE ahead of the upper low...which indicates the warm air advection associated with the southern low is beginning to spread ahead of the northern stream. Bigger question now becomes mesoscale dynamics." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, this storm looks like it's moving North right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Compare that to the 6z GFS and just LOL. Also liking the intensity-already down to 995mb!! Also moving more NNE as opposed to NE, good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that is well south of the 12Z NAM's placement at 15Z (edited from 3Z, my mistake) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what will be important is what type of ratios can we squeeze out of the CCB/deform bands....my guess is there will be an inch or less qpf after the switch over (expect C and E LI) you might be right, but in 12-13-1 thats over a foot. I agree on the amounts after changeover from about 1.0+ NYC east. Not gonna get 20 in NYC but nws forecast looks good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't post much on here, but I've got to say some of the posts really are ridiculous. The storm hasnt even developed yet, and people are throwing out the bust word. I lived in Albany for years, and remember many storms where the forecast was 12 to 18 or 18 to 24 going to bed with only a few inches on the ground thinking bust, only to wake up the next morning to see verification. the banding will materialize, and people are going to get a lot of snow. Chill out and enjoy the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yup. Well its snowing in Edison which is in the green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 because it's raining which everybody knew would happen today..the main event is tonightI believe we are colder than expected, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 from baroclinic instability in the sne thread "The 12z ECMWF may shift a very slight bit east, but this storm is clearly becoming phased with the upper low as the southern low has recently taken a hard left/northward turn, the cloud field is expanding and cooling over SNE ahead of the upper low...which indicates the warm air advection associated with the southern low is beginning to spread ahead of the northern stream. Bigger question now becomes mesoscale dynamics." and he is an awesome forecaster - but note that was written for the NE guys, not us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Yeah, this storm looks like it's moving North right now. thank you. everyone has been ignoring me lol it def does look like it moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 except it goes both ways, those who hype incredible amounts based on a couple of models and then belittle others who disagree and say oh that cant happen. well it did...we should get decent snows anyhow that everyone should be happy with but we are not getting what are the weenies were going around claiming we were Basically everyone was discounting the Euro to the people who were trusting in it. In these storms considering the history of the Euro's dominant performance in these types of storms and it's consistency with this storm for 9 runs in a row, why would people like yourself and others consider me a weenie for falling for the Euro through 12z yesterday hook-line-sinker? Who really is the weenie then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 and he is an awesome forecaster - but note that was written for the NE guys, not us. what's important is hes saying that the storm is clearly phasing right now. that is awesome for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Banding is really picking up now off the Jersey shore http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dix&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We change back to snow between 3-4 pm for the main event tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thank you. everyone has been ignoring me lol it def does look like it moving north The early phase and the storm moving due north are what gives us the chance to get the 20" totals out of this beast, instead of a pedestrian 8-12". It's still a little early, however: we need the storm to continue its northward migration with the northern stream phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 what's important is hes saying that the storm is clearing phasing right now. that is awesome for us ya lol who cares who he wrote it for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 thank you. everyone has been ignoring me lol it def does look like it moving north The storm was captured hours ago and will probably go according to the NAM/ECMWF at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree....precip lost ahead of CCB is more or less just a few inches lost to rain. It is really more about where the heaviest banding sets up, not precip type...because if/when it sets up over us, temps drop below freezing and we accumulate quickly what will be important is what type of ratios can we squeeze out of the CCB/deform bands....my guess is there will be an inch or less qpf after the switch over (expect C and E LI) Yes I agree..most likely around 3/4" qpf left after the switch to snow...With the banding though I think NYC can get 10-12" out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm no expert but based off this radar loop it appears that the center is close to being completely closed off http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=akq&loop=yes look at the surface map Snow88 posted, the slp is much further south than what youre looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 btw ace just took a look at the 12z nam 3hr prog and the low position is about 50 miles east northeast and several mb's too weak. So its actually a lot better that its further sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We change back to snow between 3-4 pm for the main event tonight. People will be going NUTS when this happens lol....heavy snow developing over NYC while all of western NJ is dry! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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