stormtracker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I took a nap and wake up to the worst thread I have ever read. C'mon guys. Start slicing and dicing, willy nilly. Seriously. If you run into any problems, let me know. Go for it, machine gun Kelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I swear the storm is moving due North right now with a slight east movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Rain was forecasted no matter what. I don't think a change back is too far away either. Per the MM5, this is the warmest it's going to be, should start the see the BL cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 whats interesting to me is that just from looking at the dopp radar it would appear as having that "snow" look to it. usually very easy to distinguish rain & snow by the type of signatures on the radar. Makes me wonder how shallow the warm air is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hoiw much QPF is lost before the action gets in? What did we lose potentionally 3-6 inches on western LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 would imagine were getting close to our warmest at the surface/mid levels. Probably another 2-3 hours of mid level and surface warmth before we start seeing the beginnings of dynamic cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The radar out of Dover is very impressive http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=dox&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hoiw much QPF is lost before the action gets in? What did we lose potentionally 3-6 inches on western LI? yes..maybe more depending on changeover time, maybe less. Still 1.0+ frozen so would think nassau cty e is at least 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I can confirm. My buddy just texted me that it's snowing in Somerset. It's been snowing all morning but noticeable differences in accumulations from my house in Union county and work in Edison. That route 1 corridor heat island is always an issue when temps are around freezing or if snow is on the lighter side. This should work itself out as long as the best snows are from 4pm onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 whats interesting to me is that just from looking at the dopp radar it would appear as having that "snow" look to it. usually very easy to distinguish rain & snow by the type of signatures on the radar. Makes me wonder how shallow the warm air is. I know exactly what you mean....more solid area of precip, not scattered with pockets of heavy precip or holes in the radar....looks more like a snowy radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 TWC has 8-12 inches tonight for NYC with wind gusting to 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can anybody confirm a due north movement of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The rain was expected from the city on south. And it probably keeps raining until 4 or 5pm. But thereafter we have 12 HOURS of hopefully wall to wall good snow. Just a few hours under the good banding can add totals up like crazy. You should only be disappointed if you forecasted the 18-24+ kind of totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like rgem has a 4pm-7pm changeover also. Depending on the changeover time, it has .50"-1" of precip after 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Only 0.13" of precip has fallen so far which isn't that bad. If it was more like an inch of all rain, then I'd be concerned. The heaviest stuff is well away from arriving. Glad it's raining with light precip, would hate it raining when there's heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 would imagine were getting close to our warmest at the surface/mid levels. Probably another 2-3 hours of mid level and surface warmth before we start seeing the beginnings of dynamic cooling NAM and RGEM have the temps collapsing right around 3-4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at soundings, the NAM is about a 4-7pm changeover for NYC and LI. NYC sees .75"-1" of precip after 7pm. LI more. NAM verbatim is about 6"-12" of snow for NYC and LI. More for NNJ, SWCT and the Hudson valley, where its 12"-18". I'll take 1'+ of snow easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The rain was expected from the city on south. And it probably keeps raining until 4 or 5pm. But thereafter we have 12 HOURS of hopefully wall to wall good snow. Just a few hours under the good banding can add totals up like crazy. You should only be disappointed if you forecasted the 18-24+ kind of totals. I forecasted 16-20" for NYC and 14-18" for JFK. I still think that can verify. Don't see why everyone is getting negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 whats going on this minute is really unimportant in the scheme of things. Since early this week we've been stressing the importance of getting into that ccb. If it was 3 degrees colder now and accumulating, and we missed the ccb, we'd be complaining about our 6inches. So thats why we need to watch, learn and let this unfold. It has always been the ccb that will make or break this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you have access the the correlation coefficient, you can see the rain snow line....it is located in Western Middlesex county. NW of that line is snow, south and east mix. I know exactly what you mean....more solid area of precip, not scattered with pockets of heavy precip or holes in the radar....looks more like a snowy radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like rgem has a 4pm-7pm changeover also. Depending on the changeover time, it has .50"-1" of precip after 4pm. Makes sense. Phase is happening later than what was being shown a couple days ago. This allows the northern stream low to advect more warm air into the region until CAA starts occuring later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can we stop with the models now and just nowcast already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I forecasted 16-20" for NYC and 14-18" for JFK. I still think that can verify. Don't see why everyone is getting negative. Zucker....East NY Brooklyn?, I pass Linden Blvd on the way to my school! Alot of absentees today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Rain was forecasted no matter what. I don't think a change back is too far away either. Per the MM5, this is the warmest it's going to be, should start the see the BL cool. the MM5 from 0Z, the 12Z hasnt even initialized...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 34/31 in central park with 0.1 in the last 3 hours. Were not going much higher than this I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you have access the the correlation coefficient, you can see the rain snow line....it is located in Western Middlesex county. NW of that line is snow, south and east mix. There is a swath of sleet though in the red/yellow tint on CC dual pol. I'm currently sleeting with no rain in NE Queens (Bayside). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thank you. This thread has been terrible, this subforum in general . Too many people who always downplay events and turn out wrong in the end. except it goes both ways, those who hype incredible amounts based on a couple of models and then belittle others who disagree and say oh that cant happen. well it did...we should get decent snows anyhow that everyone should be happy with but we are not getting what are the weenies were going around claiming we were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 whats going on this minute is really unimportant in the scheme of things. Since early this week we've been stressing the importance of getting into that ccb. If it was 3 degrees colder now and accumulating, and we missed the ccb, we'd be complaining about our 6inches. So thats why we need to watch, learn and let this unfold. It has always been the ccb that will make or break this I agree....precip lost ahead of CCB is more or less just a few inches lost to rain. It is really more about where the heaviest banding sets up, not precip type...because if/when it sets up over us, temps drop below freezing and we accumulate quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at that banding in the delmarva. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the MM5 from 0Z, the 12Z hasnt even initialized...?? Yea, I was referencing the the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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