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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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Per ag3:

 

NYC and LI do very well on the NAM. Very well:

Here are text soundngs. 1st bold are surface temps. 2nd is 850 temps and 3rd bold is 6 hour precip:

FRI  1P 08-FEB   1.1     0.4    1010      94      95    0.22     551     543  

FRI  7P 08-FEB  -0.3    -0.7    1003      95     100    0.75     543     540  

SAT  1A 09-FEB  -3.6    -8.1    1006      95      94    0.55     533     528  

SAT  7A 09-FEB  -5.9    -7.9    1011      87      84    0.23     533     524

 

1.5 inches frozen . On a man board , this is called  a homerun , on the little boy board , you hear bust .

Im gona go lay down  .

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You guys need to seriously suck it up.   I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule.   At a minimum you guys will probably get  8-10"?  We'd gladly take it in DC.  Man up and stop being so GD negative.    This message is for the bust calling negative nancys.  Not the rest of you.

Randy for President!!!!

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You guys need to seriously suck it up.   I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule.   At a minimum you guys will probably get  8-10"?  We'd gladly take it in DC.  Man up and stop being so GD negative.    This message is for the bust calling negative nancys.  Not the rest of you.

 

Thank you. This thread has been terrible, this subforum in general . Too many people who always downplay events and turn out wrong in the end.

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You guys need to seriously suck it up.   I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule.   At a minimum you guys will probably get  8-10"?  We'd gladly take it in DC.  Man up and stop being so GD negative.    This message is for the bust calling negative nancys.  Not the rest of you.

+99999 What is amazing is that the same people that have been crying about the lack of snow are now crying that it will only be a big storm instead of a historic storm. What happened to, "Beggers can not be choosers"? I still think this will end up further NW that what the concensus currently shows.

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Why not? LI gets 3" of QPF on the 12z NAM, and most of that's snow for the North Shore especially. I don't see how they would get any less than 12-18".

 

Radar looks perfect to me...heavy banding oriented SW-NE with lots of Atlantic inflow causing echoes to blow up south of Long Island. You should see the band pivot once the phase occurs as the storm wraps up. Judging from radar, extremely heavy snow is about to hit Long Island. 

you are one of the better posters here - but using the NAM qpf, come on????

 

Western Nassau is in the 12-18", I seriously doubt we get anywhere near 18". Boxing day we got 19" and that was snow wire to wire and a much better setup. Can we get 8-12" sure...

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Lol ya probably 8 maybe 10" or so here....I think there ends up being two "types" of weenies when snow starved...the negative ones "it's trending away from very heavy snow here" (ME!) and the optimists that refuse to give up the extreme end of things when the writing is on the wall (the ones that hate my posts lol)....I'm going to bring my posts to a minimum and sorry for anyone that was offended by the negativity in my interpretations of these newer model trends

I don't really see anyone holding on to crazy snow amounts. Most people are being realistic minus the pessimistic few that are contributing nothing. Who is saying crazy amounts now? Everything is on target with the forecast amounts. Late phase, we'll all be on the lower end of the forecast range. Perfect phase everything will fall in line. I dont understand what the obsession is with calling bust and the like before the event has even been going on for 3 hours!

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Randy for President!!!!

 

I'd be a terrible President.

 

But in all seriousness...I'm not even from  here...I don't have a dog in the fight, but even I'm annoyed.   I hate the bust brigade that come out early in our own subforum.   Just watch and wait.  Could things go wrong and you horribly bust?  Sure.  I think most of you know that though.    You can't call bust 5% in.     I'm telling you...it happens all the time in my area....the Bust Birds come out and they end up looking stupid.     

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do you realize there are MANY other levels that influence this??

 

here is the NAM soundings for JFK, all levels

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt

 

do you realize there are MANY other levels that influence this??

 

here is the NAM soundings for JFK, all levels

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt

And at hr 12  the whole column is cool and the surface is 32 ... and 1.5 falls after right

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You guys need to seriously suck it up. I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule. At a minimum you guys will probably get 8-10"? We'd gladly take it in DC. Man up and stop being so GD negative. This message is for the bust calling negative nancys. Not the rest of you.

Thank you. Amazing how greed and insecurity obscure the big picture sometimes. Even if we ended up with only 6", people would be upset? 3 or 4 days ago everyone in this forum would've signed up for that.

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do not look at pressure change maps to indicate low pressure location or direction of movement. classic mistake. Yes the low is progged to move east of north over the next 6 hrs but don't go by pressure falls.

Correct pressure falls are just one possible indication of future trajectory of the SLP. More importantly the SLP is going to react to mid and more so upper level features. 500 mb is the key to future evolution of SLP track & strength then the 700 and 850 become important regarding precip placement and to some degree precip type.

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You guys need to seriously suck it up.   I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule.   At a minimum you guys will probably get  8-10"?  We'd gladly take it in DC.  Man up and stop being so GD negative.    This message is for the bust calling negative nancys.  Not the rest of you.

ha ha ha THANK YOU!! Someone had to say it!! 100% agree.

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I think what is important to remind ourselves of (MYSELF INCLUDED) is that this storm is going to happen how it is going to happen! Whatever was modeled yesterday or now is not reality! If it goes from 30" to 5", it is not a historic storm that turned into a smaller event...it was ALWAYS a smaller event that was bound to happen. Haha lets heal ourselves

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If CPK gets 10 inches of snow and CLI gets 15 , just remember this was seen by the Euro 6 days ago . This has to be one the GFS worst showings , thats the argument , not that we get 10 but we should have had  20 , this is just baby$%&

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I think what is important to remind ourselves of (MYSELF INCLUDED) is that this storm is going to happen how it is going to happen! Whatever was modeled yesterday or now is not reality! If it goes from 30" to 5", it is not a historic storm that turned into a smaller event...it was ALWAYS a smaller event that was bound to happen. Haha lets heal ourselves

 

LOL love it. thats like saying I had the winning lotto ticket until the wrong six numbers came out!

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