PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Per ag3: NYC and LI do very well on the NAM. Very well: Here are text soundngs. 1st bold are surface temps. 2nd is 850 temps and 3rd bold is 6 hour precip: FRI 1P 08-FEB 1.1 0.4 1010 94 95 0.22 551 543 FRI 7P 08-FEB -0.3 -0.7 1003 95 100 0.75 543 540 SAT 1A 09-FEB -3.6 -8.1 1006 95 94 0.55 533 528 SAT 7A 09-FEB -5.9 -7.9 1011 87 84 0.23 533 524 1.5 inches frozen . On a man board , this is called a homerun , on the little boy board , you hear bust . Im gona go lay down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys need to seriously suck it up. I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule. At a minimum you guys will probably get 8-10"? We'd gladly take it in DC. Man up and stop being so GD negative. This message is for the bust calling negative nancys. Not the rest of you. Randy for President!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys need to seriously suck it up. I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule. At a minimum you guys will probably get 8-10"? We'd gladly take it in DC. Man up and stop being so GD negative. This message is for the bust calling negative nancys. Not the rest of you. Thank you. This thread has been terrible, this subforum in general . Too many people who always downplay events and turn out wrong in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys need to seriously suck it up. I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule. At a minimum you guys will probably get 8-10"? We'd gladly take it in DC. Man up and stop being so GD negative. This message is for the bust calling negative nancys. Not the rest of you. +99999 What is amazing is that the same people that have been crying about the lack of snow are now crying that it will only be a big storm instead of a historic storm. What happened to, "Beggers can not be choosers"? I still think this will end up further NW that what the concensus currently shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Randy for President!!!! he's talking about you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well, im in southern Somerset county south of that line and its snowing moderately and accumulating. It was tainty but now all snow. I can confirm. My buddy just texted me that it's snowing in Somerset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Why not? LI gets 3" of QPF on the 12z NAM, and most of that's snow for the North Shore especially. I don't see how they would get any less than 12-18". Radar looks perfect to me...heavy banding oriented SW-NE with lots of Atlantic inflow causing echoes to blow up south of Long Island. You should see the band pivot once the phase occurs as the storm wraps up. Judging from radar, extremely heavy snow is about to hit Long Island. you are one of the better posters here - but using the NAM qpf, come on???? Western Nassau is in the 12-18", I seriously doubt we get anywhere near 18". Boxing day we got 19" and that was snow wire to wire and a much better setup. Can we get 8-12" sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 he's talking about you +10000000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 8" is historic to me after these two winters lol I cant wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol ya probably 8 maybe 10" or so here....I think there ends up being two "types" of weenies when snow starved...the negative ones "it's trending away from very heavy snow here" (ME!) and the optimists that refuse to give up the extreme end of things when the writing is on the wall (the ones that hate my posts lol)....I'm going to bring my posts to a minimum and sorry for anyone that was offended by the negativity in my interpretations of these newer model trends I don't really see anyone holding on to crazy snow amounts. Most people are being realistic minus the pessimistic few that are contributing nothing. Who is saying crazy amounts now? Everything is on target with the forecast amounts. Late phase, we'll all be on the lower end of the forecast range. Perfect phase everything will fall in line. I dont understand what the obsession is with calling bust and the like before the event has even been going on for 3 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Randy for President!!!! I'd be a terrible President. But in all seriousness...I'm not even from here...I don't have a dog in the fight, but even I'm annoyed. I hate the bust brigade that come out early in our own subforum. Just watch and wait. Could things go wrong and you horribly bust? Sure. I think most of you know that though. You can't call bust 5% in. I'm telling you...it happens all the time in my area....the Bust Birds come out and they end up looking stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 he's talking about you if Randy wanted to talk to me he can very easily open a chat on FB with me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 do you realize there are MANY other levels that influence this?? here is the NAM soundings for JFK, all levels http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt do you realize there are MANY other levels that influence this?? here is the NAM soundings for JFK, all levels http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt And at hr 12 the whole column is cool and the surface is 32 ... and 1.5 falls after right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys need to seriously suck it up. I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule. At a minimum you guys will probably get 8-10"? We'd gladly take it in DC. Man up and stop being so GD negative. This message is for the bust calling negative nancys. Not the rest of you. Thank you. Amazing how greed and insecurity obscure the big picture sometimes. Even if we ended up with only 6", people would be upset? 3 or 4 days ago everyone in this forum would've signed up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar looks great south of LI. Very heavy echoes coming ashore now. Should flash most people over to snow/heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 do you realize there are MANY other levels that influence this?? here is the NAM soundings for JFK, all levels http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt By 0z, it's all snow for JFK, and given how the NAM is probably still too warm, I'd say by 21z or so it's snowing (4-5pm). Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 do you realize there are MANY other levels that influence this?? here is the NAM soundings for JFK, all levels http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Of course but with that cold of an 850 signature it is all snow under that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 do not look at pressure change maps to indicate low pressure location or direction of movement. classic mistake. Yes the low is progged to move east of north over the next 6 hrs but don't go by pressure falls. Correct pressure falls are just one possible indication of future trajectory of the SLP. More importantly the SLP is going to react to mid and more so upper level features. 500 mb is the key to future evolution of SLP track & strength then the 700 and 850 become important regarding precip placement and to some degree precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys need to seriously suck it up. I've seen people with egg on their face in our region who call busts if things are an hour or two off schedule. At a minimum you guys will probably get 8-10"? We'd gladly take it in DC. Man up and stop being so GD negative. This message is for the bust calling negative nancys. Not the rest of you. ha ha ha THANK YOU!! Someone had to say it!! 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I can confirm. My buddy just texted me that it's snowing in Somerset. It's a light to sometimes moderate very wet snow here in Ramsey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 These type of banter posts are the reason the Hurricane Sandy thread became so unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think what is important to remind ourselves of (MYSELF INCLUDED) is that this storm is going to happen how it is going to happen! Whatever was modeled yesterday or now is not reality! If it goes from 30" to 5", it is not a historic storm that turned into a smaller event...it was ALWAYS a smaller event that was bound to happen. Haha lets heal ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And at hr 12 the whole column is cool and the surface is 32 ... and 1.5 falls after right now wait for the 3 hour breakdown and see if when the column cools and how much has previous fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If CPK gets 10 inches of snow and CLI gets 15 , just remember this was seen by the Euro 6 days ago . This has to be one the GFS worst showings , thats the argument , not that we get 10 but we should have had 20 , this is just baby$%& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the storm, if anything is taking a more north turn then anything, can anybody confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I took a nap and wake up to the worst thread I have ever read. C'mon guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think what is important to remind ourselves of (MYSELF INCLUDED) is that this storm is going to happen how it is going to happen! Whatever was modeled yesterday or now is not reality! If it goes from 30" to 5", it is not a historic storm that turned into a smaller event...it was ALWAYS a smaller event that was bound to happen. Haha lets heal ourselves LOL love it. thats like saying I had the winning lotto ticket until the wrong six numbers came out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 look at the radar from the midatlantic. The western edge was drying out moving east but seems to hold relatively steady the last couple frames. I have no complaints whatsoever with this radar http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So correct ! They would be saying "NAM CRUSHES NYC WITH 3" QPF ALL SNOW"....not "well it shows 35" of snow for NYC, but I doubt that'll happen". I was on all last night and I don't remember one poster believing the NAM QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I took a nap and wake up to the worst thread I have ever read. C'mon guys. because it's raining which everybody knew would happen today..the main event is tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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