dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Everyone calm down, from the experts NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 815 AM UPDATE: NO SIG CHANGES ATTM. 12Z ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NAM BEST FIT ON PRES. ALL MODELS SIMILAR ON 6 HR QPF ENDING 12Z. HOWEVER THE MOST IMPORTANT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS IN LARGE ERROR ON ITS THERMAL PROFILE AND THAT THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE MUCH MORE ACCURATE...I.E. COLDER. CC ON THE 821 AM RADAR SHOWS THE PHASE CHANGE VERY NICELY...FROM NEAR KUKT- JUST N OF KTTN TO MIDWAY BETWEEN KLDJ AND KBLM. WE`VE SEEN 48-52 KT GUSTS JUST EAST OF KORF AT 13Z. SO FAR...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WINTER WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES IN PLACE. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES. WILL BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES. Problem is the thermals on the NAM and Euro aren't good enough to avoid a huge loss of the 1.75 qpf due to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Based on the RAP, I don't see how the city gets 2-4". Makes no sense. Just look at the radar, that stuff ain't gonna disappear. 2-4" of snow highly unlikely unless if the RAP is warm and holds the precip as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 4km has a secondary maxima with the band coming in from the west during the phase tonight from NNJ up through Westchester and Rockland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It sucks that it's so warm right now, we could have easily been snowing at least moderately based on the current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the low is definitely tucked in a bit and slightly stronger than progged...but a key timeframe will be over the next 6 hours to see what kind of direction it starts to head up the coast. As of now everything looks good, but we absolutely need to watch for a jog east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Im going to solve all my expectation problems right now. I'm expecting an inch out of this storm. That's it btw there's still window of opportunity for an early phase. I live in Jersey City and according to some people here, I can expect anywhere from 2-15" XD I actually think the average of that range is a good forecast. 6-8" for Jersey city/Hoboken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Problem is the thermals on the NAM and Euro aren't good enough to avoid a huge loss of the 1.75 qpf due to rain. If you get the heavy banding into NE NJ you have nothing to worry about. The problem is that this way always based on getting the best banding from eastern NJ into western Long Island. If the CCB sets up east of the city, you can pretty much kiss anything more than a 4-8" storm goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 4km has a secondary maxima with the band coming in from the west during the phase tonight from NNJ up through Westchester and Rockland. yes saw this on the sim radar. that phase should prolong precip for 6 hours or so for enj east and northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really don't understand some of you. It is as if you can't bear to hear that the models have continued to shift east and later with the full development of system. When the NAM showed ridiculous amounts, it is the same people that declared this epic and got in their heads the idea that this could be a 2 foot snowstorm for our area. I personally never felt it was on the table and I'm ridiculed ? Sorry if it is not what you want to hear, and actually I will now post less to be so kind...but I think the posts that many of you are making about how far off the gfs is, etc.....are much more useless and now much more senseless....as the gfs was clearly on to something ! (Not ON something lol)....I was hoping for this one too so I'm sorry if its painful to hear that it shifted east, etc....but it DID. Staring at the area of low pressure and becoming delusional over how it is moving will not help. It is developing and moving as modeled and we are in line for close to or maybe just under a foot if snow. I said I thought 11-14" and supposedly I was being extremely negative and all....but now we very likely will barely get that. So again, I'm sorry if I've annoyed many of you and I will listless, but just realize that your senseless banter of how the gfs was horrible etc now is clearly just banter too and not "educated bashing". No, it is because you post crap like this before the model is done running,, and then it shows over 2 inches of qpf for NYC. :Wow....if the NAM sim radar is correct this actually will be a bust with anything near or over a foot for NYC and west" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Oh you guys. Any excuse to get your 00z NAM storm back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The models do not take ratios into consideration as we cool down significantly the snow will go from wet to very dry and ratios increase to at least 12 to 1; if not more as temeratures drop rapidly. Rossi The models DO take ratios into consideration..... sure, their handling of them isn't perfect due to the need for parameterizations but they don't just exclude ratios...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4KM NAM at HR 18, it's a nice hit for NW of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Based on the RAP, I don't see how the city gets 2-4". Makes no sense. Just look at the radar, that stuff ain't gonna disappear. 2-4" of snow highly unlikely unless if the RAP is warm and holds the precip as rain. if it doesnt phase soon enough the southern energy will get shunted east and the phase/capture will be too ate for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Oh you guys. Any excuse to get your 00z NAM storm back this belongs in the banter..or not even on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You guys are funny stressing over the models. Now casting is a lot more fun, watching the little shifts, waiting for that phase, watching the precip shield expand or collapse... That doesn't mean models suddenly become useless in the near-term. Models aren't useless and then suddenly become skillful outside of 12 hours. I think using nowcasting and models in conjunction with each other is good. And quite frankly, if the NAM had continued the epic snow totals or even raised them, absolutely no one would be saying "guys, it's time to nowcast, don't look at the models"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When this is all said and done, there will be many, many lessons to learn. People fail to accept marginal thermal profiles that produce extensive rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the low is definitely tucked in a bit and slightly stronger than progged...but a key timeframe will be over the next 6 hours to see what kind of direction it starts to head up the coast. As of now everything looks good, but we absolutely need to watch for a jog east just reviewed the text sooundings from the 0Z nam for 15Z today at JFK. Had surface temps at 38. I think we are at like 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If you get the heavy banding into NE NJ you have nothing to worry about. The problem is that this way always based on getting the best banding from eastern NJ into western Long Island. If the CCB sets up east of the city, you can pretty much kiss anything more than a 4-8" storm goodbye. Considering what the Euro at 12z yesterday showed for NE NJ, that's beyond tragic. But this is the 2013 winter so why the heck not, take 4-8 and jump for joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 if it doesnt phase soon enough the southern energy will get shunted east and the phase/capture will be too ate for us... yes we have to watch for this. would be the difference between 6-10 and 1 foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When this is all said and done, there will be many, many lessons to learn. People fail to accept marginal thermal profiles that produce extensive rain. he's back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When this is all said and done, there will be many, many lessons to learn. People fail to accept marginal thermal profiles that produce extensive rain. It didn't even start yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4KM NAM at HR 18, it's a nice hit for NW of the city that looks HORRIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When this is all said and done, there will be many, many lessons to learn. People fail to accept marginal thermal profiles that produce extensive rain. THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 When this is all said and done, there will be many, many lessons to learn. People fail to accept marginal thermal profiles that produce extensive rain. Didnt we get burned by that a couple january's ago? I remember a big coastal storm that even produced heavy snow warnings for the NY metro and most people just sat under 33 with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No, it is because you post crap like this before the model is done running,, and then it shows over 2 inches of qpf for NYC. :Wow....if the NAM sim radar is correct this actually will be a bust with anything near or over a foot for NYC and west" I think the problem is that you see the qpf amount (which by the way is 1.5 -1.75 from the city east...2" starting in Long Island) and you think "hey 2" qpf = 20" snow"...that is clearly wrong and while you might be thinking very positively about this....the 1.5" qpf is more like 7-10" of snow for NYC. If you see 1.5", no need to make it 2" to sound better. Sure, it dramatizes the whole thing but this is more of a reality show in the end, not an opera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It didn't even start yet. yes, Snow88, argue with the Met... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yes we have to watch for this. would be the difference between 6-10 and 1 foot plus no it would be the difference between 2-4" and 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Didnt we get burned by that a couple january's ago? I remember a big coastal storm that even produced heavy snow warnings for the NY metro and most people just sat under 33 with rain. January 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at soundings, the NAM is about a 4-7pm changeover for NYC and LI. NYC sees .75"-1" of precip after 7pm. LI more. NAM verbatim is about 6"-12" of snow for NYC and LI. More for NNJ, SWCT and the Hudson valley, where its 12"-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It didn't even start yet. i know its surprising hes a met. at 3-4pm with heavy precip if its raining and were losing significant precip to rain the I'm all ears. Until then for everyones sake storm at sea post met analysis instead of what lessons will be learned prior to the beginning of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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