nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 there is no doubt that the nam is east and areas south and west of the city will likely verify on the lower end, however, as the event unfolds models ALWAYS pull back on qpf. ALWAYS. The east trend should be concerning if you're a good distance south and west of the city. Otherwise everyone the 2.0 line is from central queens east with over 1.75 touching NE NJ Westchester still gets 1.75" QPF as mostly snow, large hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this model showed over 90 inches yesterday. everyone laughed. shouldn't we then laugh at this, too? sigh. Wish we could... but it is trending with the 6Z GFS and 12Z NAM. If you want big snow in NYC just hope back side band around 2am sits and pivots right over top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That still looks like 1"+ for a lot of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So we get nothing? Calm down . We will get accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The phase is going to be late this run, it's faster with the southern stream instead of holding it back like it was and waiting for the phase. We still get a nice solid storm but it won't be anything historic for us. its not "this run" LOOK AT THE WV, its as clear as day and I posted it about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 btw guys...the whole time we knew there would be a sharp cutoff SOMEWHERE. It is likely this is still the case so Im not really concerned at all for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wish we could... but it is trending with the 6Z GFS and 12Z NAM. If you want big snow in NYC just hope back side band around 2am sits and pivots right over top of us. it shows 2-4max? highly dubious..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM still looks perfectly fine to me. I was never very hopeful about people down by Philly and that looks to be coming to fruition. I don't see any huge cutbacks for the immediate metro area and east and we still look to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LI to New England jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 on a side note boston gets clobbered on the 12z nam. yeah... and I dont believe the NAM has really figured this out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Let me get this straight the 2 inch line touches NYC the 2.5 inch line runs through ISLIP . IF ONLY HALF OF THAT IS SNOW . You will really need to have you`re head examined if you`re complaining . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really don't understand some of you. It is as if you can't bear to hear that the models have continued to shift east and later with the full development of system. When the NAM showed ridiculous amounts, it is the same people that declared this epic and got in their heads the idea that this could be a 2 foot snowstorm for our area. I personally never felt it was on the table and I'm ridiculed ? Sorry if it is not what you want to hear, and actually I will now post less to be so kind...but I think the posts that many of you are making about how far off the gfs is, etc.....are much more useless and now much more senseless....as the gfs was clearly on to something ! (Not ON something lol)....I was hoping for this one too so I'm sorry if its painful to hear that it shifted east, etc....but it DID. Staring at the area of low pressure and becoming delusional over how it is moving will not help. It is developing and moving as modeled and we are in line for close to or maybe just under a foot if snow. I said I thought 11-14" and supposedly I was being extremely negative and all....but now we very likely will barely get that. So again, I'm sorry if I've annoyed many of you and I will listless, but just realize that your senseless banter of how the gfs was horrible etc now is clearly just banter too and not "educated bashing". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 at 24 almost everyone from NYC east is 2.0+. the precip is oriented north to south so sharp cutoffs on the western side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 there is no doubt that the nam is east and areas south and west of the city will likely verify on the lower end, however, as the event unfolds models ALWAYS pull back on qpf. ALWAYS. The east trend should be concerning if you're a good distance south and west of the city. Otherwise everyone the 2.0 line is from central queens east with over 1.75 touching NE NJ Best post here. It all depends on how much is lost to non-snow. I am pleased that 1.75 is still on top of me as it was for the Euro. Got to hope more frozen than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 yeah... and I dont believe the NAM has really figured this out yet honestly I'm not surprised with anything that has been going on yet. Everything still going according to plan. Will we see 18? doubt it but 12-15+ looks like a good bet for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't sure about NAM temps and 850 line it's already 14z and there is no rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I really don't understand some of you. It is as if you can't bear to hear that the models have continued to shift east and later with the full development of system. When the NAM showed ridiculous amounts, it is the same people that declared this epic and got in their heads the idea that this could be a 2 foot snowstorm for our area. I personally never felt it was on the table and I'm ridiculed ? Sorry if it is not what you want to hear, and actually I will now post less to be so kind...but I think the posts that many of you are making about how far off the gfs is, etc.....are much more useless and now much more senseless....as the gfs was clearly on to something ! (Not ON something lol)....I was hoping for this one too so I'm sorry if its painful to hear that it shifted east, etc....but it DID. Staring at the area of low pressure and becoming delusional over how it is moving will not help. It is developing and moving as modeled and we are in line for close to or maybe just under a foot if snow. I said I thought 11-14" and supposedly I was being extremely negative and all....but now we very likely will barely get that. So again, I'm sorry if I've annoyed many of you and I will listless, but just realize that your senseless banter of how the gfs was horrible etc now is clearly just banter too and not "educated bashing". We only get 11-14" from 2-3" QPF? Interesting math you bring to the table... Real-time obs clearly show the low is pretty far west, and the precip shield is intense and extensive. Not seeing what you're panicking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z Nam is similiar to the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 hi res nam goes inside bm with city east getting clobbered edit: its actually fair to say basically everyone getting clobbered just different degrees of "clobber." Probably not going to show 8in qpf amounts for our area though like 00z LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 City is 1.5+ liquid on this run. Alot more on Long Island and the NAM isnt snow at 0Z at JFK....i hate this hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 LI to New England jackpot. nam_namer_021_precip_ptot.gif And that was always the way it was modeled the 3 inch line is in Suffolk County .The 2 inch line goes through Monm county thru NYC ( half in CN is rain ) . After this winter , you guys should be dancing if this is right . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This is supposed to be a bad run for NYC? That sure looks like 1-1.5" of liquid equivalent falling as snow to me... Even doing a discount, that's a nice foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 3" line showing up on LI. Wow. Already about 0.1" of precip fell since this morning so about 2.4" for me is good. The snow falling now is not accumulating. So we'll probably only end up with about 19" or 20" of snow verbatim, less if this snow doesn't accumulate as fast. Anyone saying half of the NAM's precip is rain should stop, 6z NAM had me all rain and it's all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z Nam is similiar to the 0z Euro. Considering that the thermals have already busted too high for both models at this stage of the game can only be a good thing for much more snow than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think at this point with the trend of a later phase, the big amounts for the city are becoming increasingly unlikely. I'd probably go with 6-10 for NYC, 8-12" NW (should benefit more from whatever falls into this afternoon not associated with the CCB) Unfortunately places to the west and especially southwest look to perform the worst in this region, there's going to be a sharp cutoff with the CCB not being tucked into the coast like the Euro and NAM were showing yesterday. Amounts in this region look to be 4-7" southwest of EWR, and dropping off to around 2-5" around TTN. My guesses TTN- 4.5" EWR- 7.5" NYC- 9" LGA- 11" JFK- 10" OKX -12" HPN- 13" Going to adjust these #s and add more specific locations after looking at the 12z NAM. Using the city as a midpoint, you can expect amounts to increase rapidly as you had east, and likewise decrease rapidly as you head west/southwest. Also models tend to be way too generous with the precip on the western flanks of the CCB, there's likely to be an area of subsidence direct west of the heaviest qpf, which should be immediately west of NYC... TTN- 2.5" EWR- 7.5" MMU-6" NYC- 9" LGA- 12" JFK- 14" OKX -17" HPN- 15" And some specific locations New Brunswick - 4" Marlboro- 6" Perth Amboy- 5" Fort Lee- 10" Springfield/Wesfield/Scotch Plains 6-7" Islip - 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM is a disaster for anyone west and south of nyc. It's still an inch + for everyone, not a disaster at all. Some of us need to lower our expectations some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I llke that wraparound from that massive CCB as it practically stalls just off SNE for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 hi res nam goes inside bm with city east getting clobbered edit: its actually fair to say basically everyone getting clobbered just different degrees of "clobber." Probably not going to show 8in qpf amounts for our area though like 00z LOL can you post a link,pls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 the sim radar on the hi-res nam shows the interaction between the northern stream and southern stream beautifully. Extends precip for an additional period once the two "bands" combine. Take a look if you guys can very interesting. Explains the sharp cut-off too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's still an inch + for everyone, not a disaster at all. Some of us need to lower our expectations some. It's 3-4" for where I am. Has me raining heavily from about 10AM until 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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