WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Btw, all, don't look at the new SREFs because they are insanely warm. Nowcast and enjoy. Is the 9z out? I still see only the 3z and yes they are warmer but still 10-12" for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i think it has more to do with real weather than the models I'm hoping that at least they can start showing a realistic interpretation of what's going on soon at least. Actual conditions are cooler than what they depict, and the big blobs of convection aren't a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 really hope people grasp the complexity of what will be unfolding later...and hold off on the victory and fail posts...looking forward to hearing from Don S, earthlight, Dxwsnow and others. Seriously we need us some Earthlight in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Is the 9z out? I still see only the 3z and yes they are warmer but still 10-12" for NYC 9z. Warmer still and less frozen for nyc. Not putting too much into them based on current nowcast trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 if the sfc low goes NNE, instead of ENE, we could be in for a good thing this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 based on latest meso I'd be surprised if anything close to the GFS verified. I don't know. Look at the 10z RAP- has the low in its current position, but still moves it ENE for the next hours. Ya that's what I was saying....the GFS location of the low right now is surprisingly NOT that far off from where it currently is. And again, it shows the NE/ENE movement over the next few hours....if it doesn't move that way and maybe heads just NE or so....then the gfs might be very wrong. Until then, it's really not as wrong as I thought it was at first glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just was able to see a recent ACARS ./ AMDAR sounding out of Newark the column is below freezing through the entire sounding with no signs of WAA at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 srefs a touch east and thus drier but nothing dramatic. still looks great. 850's probably make it to the south shore of LI and CNJ Looks like the spread has widened a little though. The mslp is leaning west off of nj. Pretty much now cast time. imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The low seems to still be moving NNE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The last several frames on detailed radar show the swirl SE of VA beach starting to take on a more Of an north easterly movement and less NNE. This was modeled anyway tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The last several frames on detailed radar show the swirl SE of VA beach starting to take on a more Of an north easterly movement and less NNE. This was modeled anyway tho Not too sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 12z NAM initalized well. 998 at around Hatterus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Btw, all, don't look at the new SREFs because they are insanely warm. Nowcast and enjoy. must have missed blocking you...goodbyeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ya that's what I was saying....the GFS location of the low right now is surprisingly NOT that far off from where it currently is. And again, it shows the NE/ENE movement over the next few hours....if it doesn't move that way and maybe heads just NE or so....then the gfs might be very wrong. Until then, it's really not as wrong as I thought it was at first glance Ya that's what I was saying....the GFS location of the low right now is surprisingly NOT that far off from where it currently is. And again, it shows the NE/ENE movement over the next few hours....if it doesn't move that way and maybe heads just NE or so....then the gfs might be very wrong. Until then, it's really not as wrong as I thought it was at first glance HUH ? The center is 50 miles west of HATT , The GFS was 50 - 75 miles east of HATT , wrong in its placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The phase has already started to occur, the southern stream wouldn't be getting down to 996mb without the phase occurring. NAM seems on track with the low so far. It would be my model of choice considering the GFS went off to the looney bin. Right now its heavy overcast with a temp of 33F I expect snow to move in within the next two hours. NWS is forecasting 14-18" for the Outer Cape, but just to the west of Hyannis, MA they are forecasting 18-24". Their warning statement says more than 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 srefs a touch east and thus drier but nothing dramatic. still looks great. 850's probably make it to the south shore of LI and CNJ SREF's show the best banding streching westward to about the DE river so the good news is not too many people in this area really have to worry about being too far west and in the srew zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 500 mb initilization has a more potent southern stream at initilization compared to 06z. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The CCB is developing right now over Chessy into SNJ. The area will shift up here this afternoon and start cooling the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ya that's what I was saying....the GFS location of the low right now is surprisingly NOT that far off from where it currently is. And again, it shows the NE/ENE movement over the next few hours....if it doesn't move that way and maybe heads just NE or so....then the gfs might be very wrong. Until then, it's really not as wrong as I thought it was at first glance Ya that's what I was saying....the GFS location of the low right now is surprisingly NOT that far off from where it currently is. And again, it shows the NE/ENE movement over the next few hours....if it doesn't move that way and maybe heads just NE or so....then the gfs might be very wrong. Until then, it's really not as wrong as I thought it was at first glance HUH ? The center is 50 miles west of HATT , The GFS was 50 - 75 miles east of HATT , wrong in its placement That's wrong actually. Here is the 06z gfs placement.http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_vort_ht&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_003_850_vort_ht.gif The low is close to where it truly was. Gfs NEVER had it 50-75 miles east of hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Satellite looks like FEB 2006 in the making Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 New NAM running now....a bit further east again. The best banding on all the models including the NAM now is no longer over us but New England (where it was supposed to be all along anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The phase has already started to occur, the southern stream wouldn't be getting down to 996mb without the phase occurring. NAM seems on track with the low so far. It would be my model of choice considering the GFS went off to the looney bin. Right now its heavy overcast with a temp of 33F I expect snow to move in within the next two hours. NWS is forecasting 14-18" for the Outer Cape, but just to the west of Hyannis, MA they are forecasting 18-24". Their warning statement says more than 2 feet. The streams and systems are still separate aloft, so there's no phase yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Southern stream is definitley stronger this run on the NAM than the 06z run. 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think at this point with the trend of a later phase, the big amounts for the city are becoming increasingly unlikely. I'd probably go with 6-10 for NYC, 8-12" NW (should benefit more from whatever falls into this afternoon not associated with the CCB) Unfortunately places to the west and especially southwest look to perform the worst in this region, there's going to be a sharp cutoff with the CCB not being tucked into the coast like the Euro and NAM were showing yesterday. Amounts in this region look to be 4-7" southwest of EWR, and dropping off to around 2-5" around TTN. My guessesTTN- 4.5"EWR- 7.5"NYC- 9"LGA- 11"JFK- 10" OKX -12" HPN- 13" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 New NAM running now....a bit further east again. The best banding on all the models including the NAM now is no longer over us but New England (where it was supposed to be all along anyway) Just stop and let the run playout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam is going to be better then 06z but def not to the 00z output for nnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 nam looks great for nenj east...wintergrasp you are unbelievable you need to be 5 posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam is going to be better then 06z but def not to the 00z output for nnj That was just ludicrous-no one should have expected that. The further east you are, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hr 12 city-east getting hit good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nam is going to be better then 06z but def not to the 00z output for nnj NAM looks good, storm is slight faster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.