friedmators Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this thread is cringeworthy. almost unreadable at this point. There really only one or two morons filling this thread up with garbage. I have blocked them and its much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It could be agonizing later on with the banding. Good going SNE though, they deserve it. Let's put things into reality and be happy with a solid snow event, KU's don't grow on trees. We can't always get what we want, let them have this one and be happy with what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ah ok. Now that I see where you're posting from, I see why you're being so silly. Every single shred of meteorological data this morning indicates that this will be snowier down this way than the RPM says. 6" lol. But, don't worry, you're obviously still going to get yours. Congrats. lol....i actually live in NC now so i have no backyard love with this. i post a map and peeps get offended somehow...such a touchy thing this snow is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 OMG can we please stop it with the models already PLEASE? Let's nowcast this and just ignore the models. Holy crap do you guys love your models -__________- MODS should ban models from being used on the day of the storm except if the models shows exactly what you want QPF-wise...but ignore the temp profiles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The Low is till in North Carolina for god sakes....It can phase over delaware and we would still get clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The SPC meso has the low at 998mb over Cape Hatteras at 12z. The 6z GFS has the low SE of Cape Hatteras at 1002mb at 12z. 12zslp.gif gfs_namer_006_10m_wnd_precip.gif Right in line with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol i swear i can't read the forums on accuweather anymore, you have people there that don't have a clue of whats going on, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol....i actually live in NC now so i have no backyard love with this. i post a map and peeps get offended somehow...such a touchy thing this snow is. Curious to hear your reasoning as to why it's more realistic for Newark, NJ to see 6-8" as depicted by the RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Last frame of intellicast shows blue collapsed back southward...explain http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Latest pressure reading is 996. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1360329636155 EDIT: Important job northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Latest pressure reading is 996. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/pmsl/pmsl.gif?1360329636155 EDIT: Important job northward. that is a very encouraging low pressure position and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6-8" for newark I am more then happy with. Like others have said, its called historic for a reason, and if you just count the last two years, 6-8" would be historic XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 As soon as these winds shift NE/NNE/N.. eek. Looking like this will happen well before the 7-11 PM hours some are saying. RAP 4 hour has this down to 990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Mets in the NE forum are commenting about the dying convection east of the low. That's a good thing-no convective feedback on the 12z runs hopefully and an acknowledgement of the low being west of Hatteras. Hopefully they come back west a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 based on latest meso I'd be surprised if anything close to the GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 To the guys providing the SPC analysis, much appreciated storm is looking strong and juicy babyyy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that is a very encouraging low pressure position and strength Next two hours are the key- to what extend do we see a jog ENE versus NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Low is deepening...just goes to show you how explosive the development is right now. I would expect that line to continue to collapse toward the center fromt he west... keeping eastern sections in a wet mix for a little while. nothing really that wasn't forecast. Last frame of intellicast shows blue collapsed back southward...explain http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6-8" for newark I am more then happy with. Like others have said, its called historic for a reason, and if you just count the last two years, 6-8" would be historic XD I would be happy with it too, but using meteorology, those totals are too low. You have temps several degrees cooler than progged at all levels. You have the phase beginning to occur already. You have the surface low off the coast of VA, several mb stronger than progged and 30 or so miles west of progged. All positives this morning, for anyone Philly, north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Mets in the NE forum are commenting about the dying convection east of the low. That's a good thing-no convective feedback on the 12z runs hopefully and an acknowledgement of the low being west of Hatteras. Hopefully they come back west a little. I mentioned this earlier for the peeps crying about 6Z. 00z NAM had the low depicted perfectly right on the NC coast and had the pressure to the T. I know for a fact the 12z will make alot of people happy. I think NAM/EURO win this. NAM temps and track with Euro QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Maybe someone can correct me if this is wrong but looking at this map from the 06z gfs...http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_vort_ht&cycle=06ℑ=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_006_850_vort_ht.gif It appears as if it would fall in line with right around where the area of low pressure is/is headed in the short term. The problems on the GFS arise after this image, as the next couple frames being it more rapidly NE, not NNE....which pulls it away. So it doesn't seem to be the gfs's current placement of the low that is far off at all....so it would seem we have to wait several hours to see just how far off it is/was and if this really will pull NE quickly and not ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I would be happy with it too, but using meteorology, those totals are too low. You have temps several degrees cooler than progged at all levels. You have the phase beginning to occur already. You have the surface low off the coast of VA, several mb stronger than progged and 30 or so miles west of progged. All positives this morning, for anyone Philly, north. Agree. Don't use the GFS to make a forecast at this point, use short-range models and nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 that is a very encouraging low pressure position and strength is that west of the NAM and Euro for this approx timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Mets in the NE forum are commenting about the dying convection east of the low. That's a good thing-no convective feedback on the 12z runs hopefully and an acknowledgement of the low being west of Hatteras. Hopefully they come back west a little. i think it has more to do with real weather than the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Curious to hear your reasoning as to why it's more realistic for Newark, NJ to see 6-8" as depicted by the RPM. i didnt say the rpm is spot on with every single precip countour, did i? EWR might see 16" for all I know but the general depiction looks in line with most other guidance outside the ridiculous NAM. this is a SW CT to E MASS special. the western fringe is still a toss up, you get a megaband on the extreme NW edge and boom, you can run naked in the streets. i wish all you guys in the coverage area get 24"+....im just posting maps and trying to enjoy the storm from the outside looking in. but some of you who are on the inside just refuse to have a clear perspective on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Pressure is 998 and dropping near Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i didnt say the rpm is spot on with every single precip countour, did i? EWR might see "16 for all I know but the general depiction looks in line with most other guidance outside the ridiculous NAM. this is a SW CT to E MASS special. the western fringe is still a toss up, you get a megaband on the extreme NW edge and boom, you can run naked in the streets. i wish all you guys in the coverage area get 24"+....im just posting maps and trying to enjoy the storm from the outside looking in. but some of you who are on the inside just refuse to have a clear perspective on the situation. Btw, all, don't look at the new SREFs because they are insanely warm. Nowcast and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 srefs a touch east and thus drier but nothing dramatic. still looks great. 850's probably make it to the south shore of LI and CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 based on latest meso I'd be surprised if anything close to the GFS verified. I don't know. Look at the 10z RAP- has the low in its current position, but still moves it ENE for the next hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 really hope people grasp the complexity of what will be unfolding later...and hold off on the victory and fail posts...looking forward to hearing from Don S, earthlight, Dxwsnow and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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