Weathergun Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The SPC meso has the low at 998mb over Cape Hatteras at 12z. The 6z GFS has the low SE of Cape Hatteras at 1002mb at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Wow....truly a New England special!! We're still in for more than 10" though...but Boston 3 feet sheesh. And wow EWR only 8" there There's really nothing right now that supports the RPM's forecast. Seems to me to definitely be a lower res model and one that might have some use 3-4 days out. No use at all 1-2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Need some help, on the SPC meso page how does one remove the radar layer ? Thanks in advance. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The surface pressure is already sub 998Looks like the SLP is between Columbia and nags head, NC? Gfs location of it at this time probably about 25 miles too far SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The situation with the modeled vs actual temperatures is reminding me of the morning of 12/5/03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Now that seems to be a very plausible outcome. Likely still a bit over done with those extreme amounts into MASS. rpm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like the SLP is between Columbia and nags head, SC? South Carolina ? Don't think so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The low is further NW than the GFS is currently showing. Not by a whole lot but by 50-75 miles for sure.Those 50-75 miles will make a big difference in our metro area. Where those bands set up is a guess for now. Got to watch the pressure drops, water vapor loops and the radar. This will be fun to watch unfold. A good tool to use is the SPC's forcast tools. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 this thread is cringeworthy. almost unreadable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like the SLP is between Columbia and nags head, SC? South Carolina ? Don't think so lol Lol I meant NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There's really nothing right now that supports the RPM's forecast. Seems to me to definitely be a lower res model and one that might have some use 3-4 days out. No use at all 1-2 days out. huh? rpm is a very good short range model. you are confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 huh? rpm is a very good short range model. you are confused. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From tmagan in obs thread, but didn't see it here. Better than I thought. Be interesting to see how much of (and where) a BL/ML warm push makes it in thru the morning before things collapse back: Hot off the presses, 12 UTC KOKX 8 February sounding. kokx_sounding.jpg The Euro had banding developing between 18-21 z this afternoon with dynamic cooling beginning then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I,for one, am not here to hear or see your metreological ruler is longer than mine fights. We are here to lear from 1 another & with another and above all discuss and observe dynamics of a potentially historic blizzard. You should all be in a great mood because we are in for the rare 24 hour blizzard. I know some are stressed about possible busts but I think we can all remain civil and truly enjoy the experience-especially since its been so very rare lately, Rock on & snow on folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 huh? rpm is a very good short range model. you are confused. Link me to the verification scores please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 South Carolina ? Don't think so lol The low center is near Columbia, NC. It's 50-75 miles further NW than what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The Today Show just did a a special on how the Euro is better than the American models. How the american models lagged in seeing this storm. How the Euro had Sandy. Just thought I'd share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No. lol, yes....i know you are wishing the nam comes true for your backyard but euro + rpm is the way to go. its always been a SW CT to E MASS bullseye event. you will still get WSW snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Those 50-75 miles will make a big difference in our metro area. Where those bands set up is a guess for now. Got to watch the pressure drops, water vapor loops and the radar. This will be fun to watch unfold. A good tool to use is the SPC's forcast tools. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16 I know, trust me. I'm encouraged by the surface observations and what we can see on WV but I don't like how the NAM trended weaker with the southern stream. We need this thing to bomb out or it will be just another noreaster for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar scope is such an incredible radar app. There appears to be a center with precip wrapping in and around it about 75 miles to the SE of VA beach? And yes, this would make the NAM much more accurate in regards to its placement than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The surface pressure is already sub 998 gotta kill off the GL low...damn it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Something I really haven't seen discussed, but what is the surge impact going to be like in sandy impacted areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Link me to the verification scores please. the fact that you think its best used in the 3/4 day range when it only runs out to 36hrs shows how much you know about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The SPC meso has the low at 998mb over Cape Hatteras at 12z. The 6z GFS has the low SE of Cape Hatteras at 1002mb at 12z. 12zslp.gif gfs_namer_006_10m_wnd_precip.gif It looks slightly NW of Hatteras to me, over Pamlico Sound. Really confident that the GFS is just out to lunch here with that track. And also the strength. Still looks like it's having convective feedback issues-again, look at the convective blobs it fires east of the center, and it tries to overcompensate with the low track. The 0z NAM was definitely too crazy last night, but the weaker/east ones are likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 lol, yes....i know you are wishing the nam comes true for your backyard but euro + rpm is the way to go. its always been a SW CT to E MASS bullseye event. you will still get WSW snows. Ah ok. Now that I see where you're posting from, I see why you're being so silly. Every single shred of meteorological data this morning indicates that this will be snowier down this way than the RPM says. 6" lol. But, don't worry, you're obviously still going to get yours. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar scope is such an incredible radar app. There appears to be a center with precip wrapping in and around it about 75 miles to the SE of VA beach? yes I see that swirl. Mesoanalysis has the true low sw of there but who knows. Either way that swirl isn't moving anywhere very quickly and definitely not escaping east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know, trust me. I'm encouraged by the surface observations and what we can see on WV but I don't like how the NAM trended weaker with the southern stream. We need this thing to bomb out or it will be just another noreaster for most of us. Agree, It's like waiting for a baby to be born. It's going to happen today but when. We just pace the floor and pull out our hair. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Something I really haven't seen discussed, but what is the surge impact going to be like in sandy impacted areas? Perhaps a few foot water rise and 10+ft waves. Enough to cause a lot of beach erosion but not awful in terms of flooding. North winds should be helpful. Eastern New England gets the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar scope is such an incredible radar app. There appears to be a center with precip wrapping in and around it about 75 miles to the SE of VA beach? yes I see that swirl. Mesoanalysis has the true low sw of there but who knows. Either way that swirl isn't moving anywhere very quickly and definitely not escaping east I see it slowly starting to pull to the NE but even so, that would be a great track. So that must actually be where the area of low pressure is now then I would think, right? Nothing else would cause the swirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 glancing at the sat and WV you can pretty clearly see the phase is going to happen later rather than sooner...which would for sure limit the precip west of the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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