WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 well, Steve D ONLY going 6-12" for the entire area...now I know we are going to get creamed.I can't help but feel that he forecasts purposely low when forecasts show higher and much higher when forecasts show lower. Being controversial can be fun I guess lol....the map is not bad tho...he has 12-24 for new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is true with respect to the surface, but the winds just above the deck are not necessarily as northerly - that is why I'm still afraid of lots of taint via sleet. We need the mid level centers to close off as quickly as possible. I agree-I also think we have to deal with mixing for a while. Hopefully the quicker phased outcome is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 FWIW mod snow in park slope brooklyn wasn't it surposed to start as rain / mix??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Radar def more rep of the nam then gfs at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We should refuse to look at any future model runs and stick to now-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Kocin, in addition to his forecasting skills, is an exceptionally lucid writer. Especially for a scientist. IMO, there's enough of a damming signal to keep the winds from going E/SE for N. Queens, N. manhattan. If the precip starts with NE winds, between the damming and the evap cooling its hard to get a coastal front through here. This has no bearing in what's happening up above, and plenty of sleet still looks like its on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Kocin, in addition to his forecasting skills, is an exceptionally lucid writer. Especially for a scientist. IMO, there's enough of a damming signal to keep the winds from going E/SE for N. Queens, N. manhattan. If the precip starts with NE winds, between the damming and the evap cooling its hard to get a coastal front through here. This has no bearing in what's happening up above, and plenty of sleet still looks like its on the table. Fine by be long as its frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hopefully when the american models get initialized with the correct 12z data, they come more into line with the Euro/UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 We should refuse to look at any future model runs and stick to now-casting. The HRRR out 12 hours plus definitely supports the GFS idea alot more, whether or not its correct I don;t know but its not doing too bad of a job currently, I hope its depictions this evening are not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hopefully when the american models get initialized with the correct 12z data, they come more into line with the Euro/UKMET. The GFS is already too far east with the low, as it looks to be just inside of HAT, and below 1000mb. I think it should pretty much be disregarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 0z NAM, 6z NAM and 6z GFS, look too warm at 925mb. Compared to SPC meso at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 FWIW mod snow in park slope brooklyn wasn't it surposed to start as rain / mix??? The models were too warm with their surface temperatures, for sure. However, it still looks likely that just above the surface, we'll have some warm air advection and a lot of us will transition to sleet. When and how long is the big question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Center of LI -and I have wet snow coming down. Elevation is highest point I think on the island so I expect that to help some. Grassy areas getting covered - pavement still wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS is already too far east with the low, as it looks to be just inside of HAT, and below 1000mb. I think it should pretty much be disregarded. The NAMs temps are too warm and the GFS temps and precip is off. So hopefully the 12z runs clarify things more in line with the European guidance. It's too bad we don't have a model with the skill of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just taking a look at the meso page. The GFS QPF output is really off. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl versus The western extent of the precipitation is significantly further west from what the GFS is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The NAMs temps are too warm and the GFS temps and precip is off. So hopefully the 12z runs clarify things more in line with the European guidance. It's too bad we don't have a model with the skill of the Euro. Agree 100% horrible showing for American models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just taking a look at the meso page. The GFS QPF output is really off. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl versus The western extent of the precipitation is significantly further west from what the GFS is depicting. No, it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just taking a look at the meso page. The GFS QPF output is really off. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl versus The western extent of the precipitation is significantly further west from what the GFS is depicting. Not tremendously-look at the radar and notice how the precip is having a tough time getting west of Philly and DC. But the low placement already looks like it's wrong, which is quite encouraging that it won't slip east. Amazing that we still have all this uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just taking a look at the meso page. The GFS QPF output is really off. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl versus The western extent of the precipitation is significantly further west from what the GFS is depicting. Looking at the solid area of precip currently in VA, MD and north...it doesn't seem too far off where the gfs has it. It is definitely not expanding NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The HRRR really pushes this north and east in a hurry and makes it a New England special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at the solid area of precip currently in VA, MD and north...it doesn't seem too far off where the gfs has it. It is definitely not expanding NW So the gfs is correct and schooled the Euro? So is 4-8" the most to expect then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 No, it's not. Yes it is, look on radar, the low center is pretty much over Norfolk VA while the GFS is 50-75 miles further SE. The current radar matches up well with the 00z NAM. This is the 12z simulated radar from the 00z NAM. It looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Even the coldest model, the euro, had NYC and LI with temps of 36-38 at 12z, which was an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Surface temps are 3-4 degrees under where they were modeled to be. Mid-level temps are much colder than modeled, at all levels. Surface low placement is where the 0z NAM had it. Doubt many who were supposed to changeover, changeover. The only difference from the 0z NAM will be a sharper cutoff on the NW fringe. NYC sees 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at the solid area of precip currently in VA, MD and north...it doesn't seem too far off where the gfs has it. It is definitely not expanding NW So the gfs is correct and schooled the Euro? So is 4-8" the most to expect then. Nope. Did I ever say 4-8"? I think still 11-14", however the gfs is not too far from the current surface image precip-wise. And quite honestly, yes, the other models did shift east. So...schooled the euro? No. The euro has held the system for several days and remained fairly consistent. The outcomes of either model are surely not reliant on the other or any other model for that matter. But clearly the model runs of the euro that had this further NW and wound up so soon are going to prove to be wrong, and will most likely continue to trend east and slower with the development at 12z. Still around a foot for NYC though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at the solid area of precip currently in VA, MD and north...it doesn't seem too far off where the gfs has it. It is definitely not expanding NW The low is further NW than the GFS is currently showing. Not by a whole lot but by 50-75 miles for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loadletterpaper Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From tmagan in obs thread, but didn't see it here. Better than I thought. Be interesting to see how much of (and where) a BL/ML warm push makes it in thru the morning before things collapse back: Hot off the presses, 12 UTC KOKX 8 February sounding. kokx_sounding.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 rpm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 rpm:Wow....truly a New England special!! We're still in for more than 10" though...but Boston 3 feet sheesh. And wow EWR only 8" there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The surface pressure is already sub 998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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