Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it's moderate rain here 31 and S+ in NW queens, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The bright banding showing up over Western Nassau is giant snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It is very positive that we have started as a quick wall of moderate snow, that we're all snow, that we're accumulating. None of which were necessarily sure things as soon as 2 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 mod snow north queens bar the door she's angry and a hell of a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 More commenting on the potential banding features...see the HPC heavy snow disco looks like per graphic area moderare risk for 8 and 12 inch thresholds expanded overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i'm probably right in the changeover line, KISP is reporting -SNRA while i'm getting plain rain here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NWS has Sussex County getting a little rain and even some pingers. Okay, perhaps a pinger or two, but I think that wording might be off and hopefully that bodes well for all. Good luck! I still think the Northern 1/3 of NJ above 78 will have some 20"+ spots! Banding/deformation is SO tough to nail down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm guessing there is a chance everyone will go to rain some point or PL in the next 2-4 hours at least including all of LI, the 5 boroughs and parts of ERN NJ, that ESE wind may be tough to fight off. The winds are starting to come around N-NE exteme SE NJ and DE right now, once that makes it up here everyone goes over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its almost like a tropical storm at Hatteras, temps in the 60s with winds gusting above 50 mph and heavy rain. Per ray. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light to occasionally moderate snow has moved into Larchmont. The ground is dusted in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The rain snow line is across Suffolk with winds 080 and Nassau is still 050 and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Moderate snow with small flake size in Wantagh!!! Good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snowing coming down quite heavy here at port Elizabeth NJ, good luck to all!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i'm probably right in the changeover line, KISP is reporting -SNRA while i'm getting plain rain here... looking at what's happening just south and rapidly rising dew points, i think all of nyc and li flip to rain by 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The rain snow line is across Suffolk with winds 080 and Nassau is still 050 and snow. Its going to be close as it appeared all night, I'm not sure how far west that line is going to push, if the NYC metro stays 050-060 they may be able to hold onto mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm guessing there is a chance everyone will go to rain some point or PL in the next 2-4 hours at least including all of LI, the 5 boroughs and parts of ERN NJ, that ESE wind may be tough to fight off. The winds are starting to come around N-NE exteme SE NJ and DE right now, once that makes it up here everyone goes over to snow. im n queens, winds out of NE as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Sitting on SI ferry looking at wind device here on dock and the surface wind looks to be blowing from the north and times north west. I'm a little surprised to see that.... CAD baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its going to be close as it appeared all night, I'm not sure how far west that line is going to push, if the NYC metro stays 050-060 they may be able to hold onto mostly snow. If NYC can hold at 050-060, that means a nice little coastal front may goose totals here a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its going to be close as it appeared all night, I'm not sure how far west that line is going to push, if the NYC metro stays 050-060 they may be able to hold onto mostly snow. It will be a nowcast the next few hours as both the NAM and GFS had the soundings to warm at JFK at least for 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well if you buy the SPC page, the 925 line sunk south the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 keep the obs in the obs thread please! yall are making a mess out of this, some folks are trying to follow the storm from a distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 All snow in Long Beach. Dusting/coating on nonpaved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well if you buy the SPC page, the 925 line sunk south the last hour. Not that shocked with a NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Notice already the difficulty in getting good precip northwest of I95 down near Philly. This is going to be a tough one for those guys down there, I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Let's please keep the observations in the observations thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39242-february-8th-9th-snowstormblizzard-event-observations/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 well, Steve D ONLY going 6-12" for the entire area...now I know we are going to get creamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If we can keep this solid heavy precip going without a lot of lulls, the cold air might be tougher here than expected. I remember busts too warm here in those cases before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NWS has Sussex County getting a little rain and even some pingers. Okay, perhaps a pinger or two, but I think that wording might be off and hopefully that bodes well for all. Good luck! I still think the Northern 1/3 of NJ above 78 will have some 20"+ spots! Banding/deformation is SO tough to nail down! Very true about figuring out the location of best banding and often neighboring subsidence. HPC heavy snow discussion mentions this along with often common secondary heavy banding on NW side of precip shield. As is often the case this big ones usual have a few suprises of which some are good and some bad. That being said I have been going with 8-16" for much of NNJ since early yesterday with the caveat that we are not far from getting less or more. 20" is still very much possible somewhere in NNJ but where is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Paul Kocin sums it up perfectly. ..MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NORTHEAST BLIZZARD ON FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY AM...THE MERGER OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/JET SYSTEM WITH ANAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IS ON TARGET TO PRODUCE A VERYINTENSE CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE FRIDAYAND EARLY SATURDAY. ONE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERTHE MIDWEST WILL FILL AS ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THESOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION AS IT NEARSCAPE HATTERAS BY MORNING AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES TODEEPEN FROM AROUND 998 MB FRIDAY MORNING TO NEAR 980 MB FRIDAYEVENING WELL EAST OF NEW JERSEY AND THEN TO NEAR 970 MB JUST EASTOF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY MORNING.THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE OVERNIGHT MODELS BUTSOME VERY CONSISTENT RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ASTORM TO DROP UP TO 30 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ANDSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELYSTRAIGHTFORWARD FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE GREATESTUNCERTAINTY FOR SNOWFALL REMAINS AROUND NEW YORK CITY AND LONGISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHERE THE ISSUE OF SNOW VSRAIN CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY SOME MODELS AND THE ISSUE OFWHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW WILL ULTIMATELY SET UP. THELOCATION OF THESE BANDS ARE NOT NECESSARILY EVIDENT FROM ANY GIVENMODEL FORECAST AND WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE EXACTLY THEGREATEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.FIRST THE EASY PART. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ALL SNOW ANDAMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES MELTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ANDSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN THESE AREAS OF CONNECTICUT/RHODE ISLANDAND MASSACHUSETTS...A GENERAL FORECAST OF 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ANDLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS A RELATIVELY EASY CALL...WITH THEPOSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ANDSOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MEASURE SINCEIT WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT BY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HURRICANEFORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND THROUGH EASTERNMASSACHUSETTS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF DROPS THE CENTRALPRESSURE OF THE LOW TO 969 MB EAST OF NANTUCKET AND THE ENTIRELIFE CYCLE OF THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL OCCUR JUST OFFTHE NORTHEAST COAST.AM ALSO EXPECTING AN AREA OF 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERNNEW YORK AS THE INITIAL NORTHERN SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD BEFOREGIVING WAY TO THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST CYCLONE ON FRIDAY AS THEINITIAL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST FADES OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ONFRIDAY.STILL THINKING THAT NYC/LONG ISLAND REMAINS A TOUGH FORECAST FORFRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW BUT THEQUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN BEFORE CHANGINGBACK TO SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED WESTWARD AND IS THE WARMEST OF ALL THEEVENING RUNS...BRINGING WARMER AIR ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTOSOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS BUT A LOOK AT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THEWARMER AIR IS ONLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND NOT ALOFT WHILE THE00Z GFS...WHICH IS THE FARTHEST EAST OF THE SOLUTIONS...SHOWS COLDCONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE BUT AN ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR 900 TO850 MB OVER LONG ISLAND. THESE CONTRASTS DID NOT CLARIFY THEPRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUE ESPECIALLY SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET HINTTHAT PRECIPITATION REMAIN AS ALL SNOW...OR ONLY BRIEFLY MIX WITHRAIN/SLEET. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY...DECIDED TO REMAINWITH THE SLIGHTLY COLDER SOLUTIONS OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET WHICHRESULTS IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE NYC METRO AREA...EVENIF SOME MIXED PCPN OCCURS.THERE IS ALSO THE ISSUE OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL FALL. THE 00Z NAM KEEPS HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FARTHEST WEST ACROSS NEWJERSEY...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY SOLUTION GIVEN THEMORE RIGHTWARD SHIFT OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE OTHER MODELSAND THE MEANS. IN ADDITION...THE NAM REPRESENTS THE MOST WESTWARDSOLUTION OF THE OPERATIONAL RUNS WITH THE SURFACE LOW POSITION BYFRIDAY EVENING...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET VIRTUALLY THE SAMELOCATION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE 00Z GFS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY NAM IN THE BLEND. HAVEEMPHASIZED THE INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEANS FROMTHE HEAVIER NAM AND THE LIGHTER GFS DUE TO THE HIGH CONTINUITY OFTHE LATEST FORECASTS. ALL THAT SAID...THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WILL PROBABLY NOTCONFORM TO ANY GIVEN MODEL SINCE MULTIPLE BANDING IS LIKELY TODEVELOP IN SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS AND ARE USUALLY NOT CAPTUREDWELL WITHIN THE MODELS. FOR EXAMPLE...SOME OF THE HEAVIER BANDSOFTEN OCCUR ALONG THE NW SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WEST OFWHERE THE MODELS OFTEN INDICATE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THISIS WHY SOME OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY NOT JUSTOCCUR OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BUT MAY OCCUR FARTHER WEST OVERCONNECTICUT/SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND LONG ISLAND.DAYS 1-3...FRIDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING......CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN TO THE WY/CO ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN ANDCENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREATBASINON DAY ONE WITH SNOW DEVELOPING WITHIN AREAS OF UPPER DIVERGENCEACROSS THE CENTRAL CA SIERRA/SRN CALIFORNIA SAN GABRIELS INTOCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA. SECONDARY MAXIMA OCCUR INDOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE UINTAS AND SOUTHERN WASATCH OFUT AND ALSO INTO SOUTHWEST CO/SAN JUANS MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERNARIZONA. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OFCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA AS WELL AS ALONG THE WASATCH/UINTARANGES WITH LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OFSNOW AND GREATER.BY DAY 2... THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST OUT OF THE GREATBASIN TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMA ANDATTENDANT DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DRIVES SNOW ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM OFAZ AND THEN INTO THE SAN JUANS OF SOUTHWEST CO/ADJACENT NM.DIFFLUENT FLOW AND EMBEDDED DIVERGENCE MAXIMA EXTEND ACROSS THELEFT EXIT JET REGION ACROSS NORTHERN CO AND WY.ON DAY 3... THE CIRCULATION MOVES EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIESACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER LEVELJET/DIFFLUENT EXIT REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE MOVING OUTOF THE ROCKIES AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINSTOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH WARMER AIR STREAMING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATIONDEVELOPS...A LARGE AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOPFROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. NORTHWEST OF THELOW CENTER...A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITH LOW TO HIGHPROBABILITIES OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THEEASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS THESYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MUCHWARMER AIR WILL TRY TO DISPLACE LOW LEVEL COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSSTHE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN MAYALSO DEVELOP FROM WESTERN VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO CENTRALPENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. IN GENERAL...USED THE 12Z/00ZECMWF/00Z GFS AND 21Z SREF MEAN TO GENERATE THE SNOWFALL GRAPHICSAND DETERMINE THE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN.THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT ONALL 3 DAYS.KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 If we can keep this solid heavy precip going without a lot of lulls, the cold air might be tougher here than expected. I remember busts too warm here in those cases before. That is true with respect to the surface, but the winds just above the deck are not necessarily as northerly - that is why I'm still afraid of lots of taint via sleet. We need the mid level centers to close off as quickly as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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