SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Base on the radar..gfs is too far east actually. Thank you JSantana, thank you. I'm a freaking noob weenie myself but hot damn do I know a storm when I see one, and that right there, right down there, is a friggin storm people. This looks like a winter storm version of Sandy with the storm to our west, and the storm to our south. This is going to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I can't believe NYC schools are still open and I have to go to work. Ugh! Lots of rain during school hours wouldn't shock me. So eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 06z NAM seems like a possibility for the area....yesterday's runs and 00z were overdone and too far west but 06z could be close as it appears 00z NAM had the low in the EXACT same spot it's in now, at the EXACT same pressure....It's going the 00z nam route bro 00zNAM 15 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 a friend out in Shirley just said at least two gas stations are out of gas while a third will probably close later this afternoon... get your gas people!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think too much is made of whether a model initialized one or two degrees too warm/cold and then extrapolate it to a models future performance. I don't extrapolate that out. It was just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asw Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 He should know better than to bring that up before the snow has begun ! He said people bring that storm up to him all the time, but in this case it will really hit us, and then he talked about how things did not come together for that storm, but did here. He was not suggesting this storm could bust (in fact, he just referred to it as an epic storm). He did not suggest at all that this was like 2001 -- in fact he was saying we should not think this is like 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 craig allen is really downplaying certain aspects of this storm.. I think during the day he may be right, but what happens after nightfall- anything is on the table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Did you guys see my post? The 00z NAM depicts the low to a T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You are mis stating what he said. His point was that a lot of pieces need to come together for a storm like this to happen. He said that in 2001 it happened up north This time its happening here Just mentioning March '01 this close to a possibly historic event makes people dive under their desks for cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The majority of the day from NYC east out through Long Island , it may just rain for most of the day light hours . This system has so much energy that once the center is east of AC we change to heavy snow and tonite its a show . We will lose the accumulations during the day , but will make it up at nite . So if you surge into the mid 30s and your pouring its not a bust . The banding is what will cause the whiteout conditions take place tonite . I think the park and 5 boroughs finish with 10 and mayb more out on Long Island . However I do now think 20 prob out of the question for the city .. too much liquid in part 1 of this . Craig Allen sees low 40`s through the NJ shore and Eastern Long Island as they are on an E WIND , and you`re not gona snow until they back around to the NE . That will happen towards the end of the afternoon . Think parts of the Island max out at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The majority of the day from NYC east out through Long Island , it may just rain for most of the day light hours . This system has so much energy that once the center is east of AC we change to heavy snow and tonite its a show . We will lose the accumulations during the day , but will make it up at nite . So if you surge into the mid 30s and your pouring its not a bust . The banding is what will cause the whiteout conditions take place tonite . I think the park and 5 boroughs finish with 10 and mayb more out on Long Island . However I do now think 20 prob out of the question for the city .. too much liquid in part 1 of this . Craig Allen sees low 40`s through the NJ shore and Eastern Long Island as they are on an E WIND , and you`re not gona snow until they back around to the NE . That will happen towards the end of the afternoon . Think parts of the Island max out at 15 Quick note my wind is out of the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On LI - to be specific, with the exception of the north east quadrant of the island -- I see this as being one of those storms where we watch and wait patiently (or impatiently) for the rain/snow line to move over us so the accumulation can begin. That's rain, not snow, just south of us right now. Just going by 30+ years of history -- the classic storms that dump 15"+ on us simply do not start with a wall of rain on the radar - it is always snow with the only concern being the nice problem of virga, and when will see see the actual flakes. That rain headed our way is not going to simply turn to snow until the storm really gets cranking, and that will take awhile. Rain turning over to significant snow is a real rarity here. Until the 2002 Christmas storm I would always post that significant changeover or wraparound snows never materialize around here. Since that storm I've had to modify that statement to ' they rarely materialize around here.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nj101.5 lowered amounts to 6-10 inches for NNJ from the 12-20 they forecasted yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 06z NAM seems like a possibility for the area....yesterday's runs and 00z were overdone and too far west but 06z could be close as it appears 00z NAM had the low in the EXACT same spot it's in now, at the EXACT same pressure....It's going the 00z nam route bro 00zNAM 15 hr How far off was the 00z from current placement then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 But how warm? Can't win here? Total 6z RGEM precip type shows no rain for NYC. Probably close to a foot if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Total 6z RGEM precip type shows no rain for NYC. Probably close to a foot if not more. Up to 33.6 here in very suburban NW queens ( no subways for a couple miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't see a lot of rain with this storm taking a look at dewpoints, although there could be a few hours of mixing. JFK: 34/26 NYC: 32/24 EWR: 34/26 Pretty decent airmass to push that precip into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Quick note my wind is out of the NE. Quick note my wind is out of the NE. Laurel Hollow Im out of the SE . The Center right now is inside Hatt . So mayb difficult during the early part of the day to snow near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Something to think about. Where ever you get the huge band forming wouldnt there be an area of subsedence right next to it??? So while someone is getting 3 inch an hour rates someone will be only getting light snow. This could be a difference in huge snow totals. By the way, light snow here with a dusting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't see a lot of rain with this storm taking a look at dewpoints, although there could be a few hours of mixing. JFK: 34/26 NYC: 32/24 EWR: 34/26 Pretty decent airmass to push that precip into. Meso analysis shows quite the warm 925 mb tongue, sleet anyone? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice CAD sig http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light snow here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is heavy snow moving into Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Gefs are wetter then op. .75+ back to del river and inch line gets back to city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 On LI - to be specific, with the exception of the north east quadrant of the island -- I see this as being one of those storms where we watch and wait patiently (or impatiently) for the rain/snow line to move over us so the accumulation can begin. That's rain, not snow, just south of us right now. Just going by 30+ years of history -- the classic storms that dump 15"+ on us simply do not start with a wall of rain on the radar - it is always snow with the only concern being the nice problem of virga, and when will see see the actual flakes. That rain headed our way is not going to simply turn to snow until the storm really gets cranking, and that will take awhile. Rain turning over to significant snow is a real rarity here. Until the 2002 Christmas storm I would always post that significant changeover or wraparound snows never materialize around here. Since that storm I've had to modify that statement to ' they rarely materialize around here.' Feb 2010 - Upton got 26 Jan 2011 - think there was close to 15 in 12 hrs Both on the back end . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Just mentioning March '01 this close to a possibly historic event makes people dive under their desks for cover. Yeah, ya got me there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Agree the GFS qpf depiction looks out to lunch....bad news is not sure any model has a truly good handle on qpf placement in this area during and post phasing process....without a doubt the most difficult forecast for NYC metro area this close to the start of a major storm in years....I think the most extreme solution chances have diminished for the city and west, but my lack of sleep could be clouding my perceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is heavy snow moving into Long Island could that be sleet there due to bright banding?? famartin has a good tool showing where the sleet is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light snow now in Flushing Queens, Kew Gardens Hills (Near Jewel Ave & Main St.) Closest Weatherbug station says temp has dropped a few degrees since the snow started. Why is my gut telling me this thing is not going to get as warm as people are thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Agree the GFS qpf depiction looks out to lunch....bad news is not sure any model has a truly good handle on qpf placement in this area during and post phasing process....without a doubt the most difficult forecast for NYC metro area this close to the start of a major storm in years....I think the most extreme solution chances have diminished for the city and west, but my lack of sleep could be clouding my perceptions. Yep...NYC appears to be the most difficult forecast here ! The area is right on the edge and borderline between the 6-12 inch amounts and the extreme 12-24" amounts....a foot of snow seems like a good call for the city now. If more rain or best banding to the east, then closer to 10, if not much rain and the best banding....maybe 16"+....will be exciting to watch this unfold ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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